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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Extent of Trump's Trade Agenda
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2016 · 1 response

One of the central themes of United States President-elect Donald Trump’s election campaign was his call to review or cancel the trade accords the US has entered into with other countries as he claimed the US economy and employment have suffered as a result of the economic opening. Uncertainty re...

Politics: Nothing to Celebrate in Latest Crime Stats
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2016

The latest National Survey on Business Victimization for 2016 (ENVE 2016), the third installment in the series, indicates that an alarming 35.5% of economic units in the country were victims of at least one type of crime in 2015, up from 33.1% in 2013. (Note: Victimization surveys reflect the exp...

Renan remains; vote on the Federal Spending Amendment still on
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2016

​By a score of six votes to three, the Federal Supreme Court decided to keep Renan Calheiros as president of the Senate. However, because he is a defendant in a criminal case, he is removed from the presidential line of succession.

Double Trouble: A Trump Surprise, and IMF Lending on Hold
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Dec 2016

The Ukrainian authorities, like the rest of the world, were caught by surprise by the election of Donald Trump. The Poroshenko administration had never approached the Trump camp before the election, believing that Hillary Clinton would be the victor. Now Poroshenko needs to not only build relati...

Social Security Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2016

Government sends social security reform proposal to Congress This Tuesday (6), the government sent Congress the constitutional amendment proposal that reforms the social security system (PEC 287/16). It will first be analyzed by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Lower House. ...

The South African Economy Barely Manages to Grow During the Third Quarter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Dec 2016

​Statistics South Africa today reported that growth in real (inflation adjusted) Gross Domestic Product decelerated notably at a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2016. This followed a relatively impressive upwardly adjusted growth rate of 3.5% (from 3...

Political Turbulence and Worse Growth Perspectives
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 06 Dec 2016

The Temer administration has won some important victories, in particular the wide approval margins in the two floor votes in the Chamber of Deputies and first one in the Senate on the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) to cap spending growth in real terms. But alongside this unquestionable s...

Signs of Growth Dissipate, as the Macro Picture Darkens
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Dec 2016

Herein we analyze the mounting economic pressures the government faces toward yearend, and in the runup to the October 2017 midterm elections. In our October 3rd report, we pointed out that while Q2 activity and external data were negative, higher frequency indicators for August suggested the...

Renan Calheiros Removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016 · 1 response

The decision to remove Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL) from the Presidency of the Senate, via injunction, made by STF (Federal Supreme Court) minister Marco Aurélio Melo, will have several consequences: 1) Uncertainty regarding the progress of the fiscal austerity effort in the Senate, espe...

Week of December 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Sunday’s protests will have repercussions in the political world. The government will finally send Congress the proposal for Social Security reform. The Senate has an extensive voting agenda, including the ban on re-election, abuse of authority and state debt. A Senate committee analyzes limits o...

Monetary Policy in the Midst of a Profound Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016

The Central Bank’s only mandate is to meet the inflation target. But its decisions are not made in a vacuum. Rather, it takes the decisions prying to minimize a loss function involving two costs: the distance of (projected) inflation from the target; and the distance of GDP in relation to potenti...

Past Performance is No Guarantee of...
TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Twelve-month CPI inflation eased in November to 7% from 7.2% in October, contrary to expectations of a slight increase, as monthly rate came in at 0.5% vs. expectations of a 0.8% increase. Producer prices jumped visibly to 6.4%, y/y, from 2.8% a month earlier, likely driven by higher energy price...

Fasten Your Seatbelts!
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2016

Instead of a Weekly Update, we are sending a Monthly in a Q&A format today, which we thought would be a better way of addressing some of the questions that might vex your minds​. AKP and MHP finally agreed on the Executive Presidency. There will be a referendum on the subject by May or June, i...

Banco de Mexico's governor: a badly timed resignation
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2016

Agustin Carstens resigned as governor of Banco de Mexico, effective next July, to become the head of BIS. The timing is unfortunate, since this change comes during a circumstance in which monetary policy has become the main (and in our opinion, the only), policy instrument at hand to preserve ...

MNB is running out of reasons to loosen further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2016

Most recent events seem to push circumstances towards a situation in which the MNB may have much less reason to loosen further than previously, if any at all. Of those, the forint's weakening to the current EURHUF 314 from the previous 305-310 range has long been part of our forecast, because of ...

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