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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political reshuffle knocks at the door
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

Over the recent weeks we observe intensified activity of political players. Many rumors are circulating. We do not have rigid facts about what is going on but from pieces of information we’ve compiled our version of events. So, trade blockade of eastern Donbas effectively destroyed fragile balanc...

Beware of Black Swans in Syria and military
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

This is a heads-up about potentially shocking news which might upset Turkey’s delicate relations with the White House abroad and the fragile equilibrium between AKP and the military at home. I predict that Trump’s new Syria plan will not enable Turkey to uproot Syrian Kurds from the Turkish borde...

Indicators Signal Good Prospects
CHINA · Report · 27 Feb 2017

Due to Chinese New Year, many statistics are still not available, making our analytical task more difficult. But one notable policy change is that monetary policy reversed its 2016 loosening trend, and shifted into tightening. We also expect this to be the trend for 2017. M1 rose 14.5% y/y, conti...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 26 Feb 2017

Referendum polls are incredibly tight. AKP is worried and will pour its immense resources into winning the presidential race. Chances of unrest in case of a rejection are rising. Ankara is picking up a fight with Iran. It is probably just a war of words, but there is possibility that the long-...

Uncertainty Is the Name of the Game
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2017

In the short term, uncertainty is the name of the game for Central America. The escalation of protectionism in developed countries is evidenced by recent events such as Brexit and the U.S. presidential elections, reinforced by rising populist movements in Europe in the runup to elections. The imp...

A delicate fiscal balancing act on the political tightrope
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Feb 2017 · 2 responses

​The 2017 Budget Speech was delivered in a politically fraught environment, with rumours rife about a possible Cabinet reshuffle, and the potential removal of either the Minister of Finance, Mr Pravin Gordhan, or the Deputy Minister, Mr Mcebisi Jonas (who had made damning public disclosures about...

Correa Directly Threatens Democracy
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Feb 2017

After admitting the fact of a second electoral round, President Correa´s behavior was quite erratic. First, he said he had no fears of the outcome on April 2 since Guillermo Lasso is the easiest candidate to defeat. But at the same time he threatened to apply the mechanism of “cross dead”. This m...

Economics: AMLO's Proposals Don't Add Up
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2017

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has published what in principle is supposed to be part of his governing program should he be elected president of Mexico next year. The book, entitled “2018. La Salida, Decadencia y Renacimiento de México” (2018: The Way Out, Mexico’s Decadence and Rebirth), con...

Politics: More Variables Ahead of 2018 Vote
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2017

Major opinion polls involving a hypothetical field of the strongest contenders from each party for the 2018 presidential contest show Morena’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador in first place. But despite the impression in some quarters that he is gaining insuppressible momentum, he is still in a tech...

Hungary decided to withdraw its application for the 2024 Olympic Games
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2017

This was announced today, after a meeting with PM Orbán, the Mayor of Budapest and the head of the Hungarian Olympic Committee. Thanks God. There is now one reason less to worry about medium- and long-term fiscal stability. Hungary is just too small and relatively underdeveloped to host an olympi...

The Legacy From the People’s Revolution
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Feb 2017 · 1 response

With about 90% of votes counted, the official candidate Lenin Moreno received 39.12% against 28.31% for Guillermo Lasso. Therefore, Moreno already has more than 10% over Lasso´s votes – one of the requisites to win the election in just one round, and is 0.89% away from the second condition: at le...

The Central Bank´s New Hawk
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Feb 2017

President Santos appointed Gerardo Hernandez today as Co-Director of the Central Bank. Mr. Hernandez, current Financial Superintendent, will be replacing Gustavo Cano, who recently left, after completing 12 years on the board. If Mr. Hernandez is able to assume his post before the end of the week...

Week of February 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Feb 2017 · 1 response

​In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank meeting to set the benchmark interest rate. The Senate analyzes the appointment of Alexandre de Moraes to the Federal Supreme Court and the repatriation bill for undeclared funds held by Brazilians abroad. If approved, the bill heads for presidential...

Global trade dynamics seen through a US-Mexico lens
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Feb 2017 · 1 response

​Special points to highlight in this issue: January credit data suggest that economic activity in China is still heavily dependent on credit growth. The data reinforce the argument that as long as Beijing expects to maintain its GDP growth target, the growth in credit will continue to accelera...

SA 2017 Budget Speech and President Zuma's Cabinet Reshuffle
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 21 Feb 2017

Tomorrow is SA's 2017 Budget Speech day! The usual annual hype around the fiscal policies is once again dominated by the political games at play surrounding the Minister, and more broadly around the control of the National Treasury. In my last commentary I warned that the probability of the forth...

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