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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic Activity is Still Weak
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jan 2017

In our last Quarterly Outlook we projected a slow recovery of economic activity starting in the second quarter of 2017. Despite the slight improvement in some indicators, the most recent data still show signs of contraction of both household consumption and gross fixed capital formation. GDP prob...

​Who will lead the BSP?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jan 2017

The financial community entered 2017 with President Rodrigo Duterte's December threat against the Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) still ringing in its ears. In his second challenge in as many months to the AMLC, which is chaired by the BSP Governor, the President said that "Tetangco is about...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jan 2017 · 1 response

After the New Year’s Eve massacre at the posh Istanbul nightclub Reina, terror struck a courthouse in Izmir killing four and injuring eight. More atrocious incidents are highly likely. Meanwhile, AKP extended the State of Emergency for another three months, but we bet that it won’t be the last ti...

“Painful Compromises” of Local Oligarchs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

On Dec. 29th 2016, Viktor Pinchuk, local oligarch and son-in-law of ex-President Leonid Kuchma made a real coming out on pages of WSJ with an article ‘Ukraine Must Make Painful Compromises for Peace With Russia’. The name of the article tells for itself. Mr. Pinchuk suggests accepting agenda that...

A bit more clarity on the fiscal results of 2016
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jan 2017

The public can see a bit more clearly after an announcement by the Economy Ministry yesterday, even though key questions remain unanswered. The new piece that found its place in the puzzle is that the full-year cash deficit of the central government ended up at HUF848bn or 2.4% of GDP. This impli...

Dealing with Uncertainty
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Jan 2017

Russia’s most popular opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, announced his candidacy for the 2018 presidential election. Although it will be a while before the formal candidate registration procedure starts, this move can win some public support for Navalny and create a supportive context for the...

Unprecedented fiscal data: a general government surplus in Q1-Q3 2016
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jan 2017

Well, it is perhaps no great surprise any more, given the release of a very strong net financing capacity number about a month ago. Yet, it is history because it is unprecedented. The government's ESA2010 balance, the main indicator watched by the EU and everyone else, was a surplus equivalent to...

The $5 billion surprise
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

On 29 December 2016, Venezuela issued a $5 billion bond due in 2036, with a 6.5 percent coupon, after five years without dollar-denominated issues. The manager is Haitong International Securities / Haitong Bank, S.A., based in Hong Kong. The legal framework for this bond is the 2016 Indebtedness ...

Good-Bye High Growth/High Inflation, Hello Stagflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2017

Consumer prices rose by a much higher-than-expected 1.6% in December, with the 12-month rate ending the year at 8.5%, up from 7% in November, markedly worse than both the Bank’s 7.5% estimate, and our somewhat higher forecast. The jump in food prices is partly to blame, but increase is broad-base...

​Turkey starts New Year with old nightmare
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2017

Violence cast a dark shadow on New Year’s Eve in Turkey as a lone gunman killed 39 and wounded 65 in the famous night club Reina of Istanbul. The assailant is still at large and believed to be affiliated with ISIS. The assault is a serious economic and sociological blow to Turkey. The first half ...

Recovering from Privatbank’s Nationalization
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Dec 2016

The recent nationalization of Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest private bank, has significantly changed the national economic climate. Everything proceeded as smoothly as could be expected, despite fears of potential panic at the FX market. The Ukrainian economy will never be quite the same. Firs...

The Year of Living Dangerously: Slower growth, higher unemployment…and Odebrecht
PANAMA · Report · 30 Dec 2016

Real GDP growth fell to 4.8% y/y in Q3 compared to its reported 5.2% growth during the previous quarter. We expect 2016 y/y GDP growth rate to be around 5% based on results up to Q3 (4.9%). We see no reason for a rebound in Q4, and indicators continue to suggest a growth rate below the 6% estimat...

Two Holiday Gifts
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Dec 2016 · 1 response

Santa brought Argentina two Christmas gifts: a promising reduction in the monthly inflation rate, and an impressive outcome for its tax amnesty plan. The fall in monthly inflation will permit two policies that may favor economic activity recovery, and provide fiscal support to the Central Bank...

​3 wishes for the economy in 2017
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Dec 2016

1. Before the cock crows on January 28 to usher in the Year of the Rooster, the Finance Department's tax reform package would have been sponsored by the Ways and Means Committee Chairman in the House of Representatives where tax bills are supposed to originate. This would send a strong signal tha...

More Questions than Answers
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Dec 2016 · 1 response

The end of 2016 is characterized by uncertainty over the future. In politics, 2017 will be dominated by questions of presidential succession, and what kind of government Colombia’s next leader will run, after taking office in August 2018. We find the latter question the most intriguing and impor...

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