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Politics: Was Chapo a Free Gift to Trump?
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2017

Last week marked the end of an epoch. Following his improbable victory and a bumpy transition, Donald Trump assumed the office of President of the United States. This fact does not change everything for Mexico, but it does change a great deal. The new occupant of the White House has been very...

Economics: Muted Effect of GOP Tax Plan’s Border Tax
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2017

In recent weeks one of the aspects of the Trump presidency that has generated the most uncertainty in Mexico is the way in which it has posed restricting imports from other countries and promoting US domestic production. Of particular concern is the Republican Party’s fiscal reform proposal, whic...

4Q16 GDP grew 6.6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2017

Data released today showed the domestic economy growing 6.6% in 4Q16, sliding from the election-driven 7% growth clip in earlier quarters.Production accounts traced the slower growth to weather-related agricultural losses and moderating industry growth, particularly private construction.These are...

Mislead and Succeed
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Jan 2017

The government has played a masterful hand, using the Odebrecht scandal regarding bribes paid to Ecuadorian government officers to cover up the more costly case​ of Petroecuador, in which top officials such as Carlos Pareja Yanuselli are involved. Ecuadorians seem to be more preoccupied with...

No change at today's rate-setting meeting, soft policy stance maintained
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2017

No one on the market expected the MNB to announce any policy change today, and the Monetary Council met that strong consensus expectation. The base rate remains at 0.9% and the O/N interest-rate corridor at -0.05-0.9%. Previously, the MNB said that it is going to offer HUF125bn at tomorrow's 3-mo...

The Reserve Bank Gives Economic Growth a Fighting Chance as it Refrains from Raising Interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jan 2017

In a move that did not surprise the markets, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate at 7% per annum, leaving the prime overdraft rate at 10.50%. The latest inflation data (December 2016) shows an acceleration in the inflation rate ...

MPC Delivers Consensus, Ends Simplification
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N Lending and Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rates by 75 and 100 bps, to 9.25% and 11%, respectively, while keeping the O/N Borrowing and Weekly Repo rates unchanged at 7.25% and 8%, respectively (see chart). It was hard to speak of a consensus prior to th...

Another Insipid Quarter for the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Jan 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: South African economic growth was erratic during the first three quarters of 2016, with even the relatively high growth recorded during the second quarter proving to be unsustainable as GDP growth rate dipped to only 0.2% in the third quarter. Furthermore, the third quar...

Week of January 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2017

The death of Supreme Court Minister Teori Zavascki will continue to have repercussions. President Michel Temer is looking at replacements for the open seat in the STF, while the debate on how the Court will choose the new rapporteur of the Lava Jato cases continues. We discuss this matter in dept...

​The budget after demonetization
INDIA · In Brief · 23 Jan 2017

The demonetization exercise, that the government claimed was a bold move against black money, could set the tone for the forthcoming budget on February 1, 2017. It appears to have been successful as a political strategy that persuaded people that the government wishes to punish the rich and corru...

Inflation on a Steep Downward Path
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jan 2017

The most recent results show that, after all, there is nothing wrong with Brazilian inflation. In the second half of 2016, claims were frequently heard that Brazil suffered from a serious pathology – the strong inflation inertia – which kept prices rising steeply even during a long and deep reces...

Ricardo Sanguino, new president of BCV
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2017 · 1 response

Ricardo Sanguino is the new president of the BCV, appointed by the President of the Republic for a 7-year term. The National Assembly doesn’t have a say in this matter. Changes to the Board of the BCV may follow. Sanguino has been a member of the National Assembly since 2000 and presided over the...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2017 · 1 response

With the Grand Assembly approving the constitutional reform bill, Turkey will hold a referendum on Executive Presidency during the first week of April. We assign 60% odds to Erdogan winning the ballot. Main downside risks are economic slowdown, terror and MHP supporters turning their back to the ...

Lagarde is positive about next wire for Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2017

Today the IMF Managing Director Cristine Lagarde met President Petro Poroshenko in Davos, reported Interfax-Ukraine news agency. Ms. Lagarde said to journalists that Ukraine and the IMF are finalizing the remaining technical details to provide the next tranche. Our sources in the Cabinet and the ...

The Implications of Minister Teori Zavascki’s Replacement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2017

The press has confirmed that Minister Teori Zavascki, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), has died in an airplane crash off the coast of Rio de Janeiro this afternoon. Teori was the rapporteur of the cases in the Lava Jato Operation.The main doubt following his death concerns the rapporteurshi...

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