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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

BOI likely to revise growth forecast upwards
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Sep 2016

Highlights:Rate stability for September came as no surprise but BOI tone more hawkish.The monetary statement noted upward growth surprise in Q2.Labor market approaching full employment.Risk to achieving growth target no longer significant.Yet, forward guidance maintained with accommodative policy...

Week of September 4
TURKEY · Report · 04 Sep 2016

With our politics author, Mr. Yesilada, on his way back from a short break, we devote this Tracker to a review of the economic data alone. Mr. Yesilada will begin with his updates in the next day or two on the past week’s myriad of political developments, which included, inter alia, another incur...

SA Political Economy: The Zuma-Gordhan Fog is Lifting- slowly!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Sep 2016

After weeks and weeks of ugly spats between the warring factions within the ANC, and following two weeks of non-stop political wrestling between the President and the Minister of Finance, today the Cabinet made its first statement, indicating some kind of a truce; or at least the end of open poli...

Risks and Challenges: What Michel Temer must do and must avoid to make it to 2018
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2016

After the conclusion of the impeachment by the Senate, President Michel Temer will face important challenges. ​ 1. Appeasement of the governing coalition: The PSDB and DEM criticized the PMDB for giving mixed signals to society and the market regarding the fiscal austerity effort. At the same ...

What Should be the Reaction to the Appreciating Exchange Rate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2016

Even without growth of capital inflows, the real has been getting stronger, and that trend will likely accentuate with reaffirmation of the commitment to carry out the fiscal adjustment now that impeachment has been confirmed. The strengthening of the nominal exchange rate has been affecting the ...

Raising Taxes
PHILIPPINES · Report · 01 Sep 2016

I was privileged to be among a small group of practicing senior economists from academia and business, many of whom are former finance officials, consulted by the senior leadership of the Department of Finance (DoF) to help flesh out its tax reform strategy. Below outlines the key elements of the...

INDEC’s Renaissance Affects the GDP Warrant
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Sep 2016

The National Statistical Bureau (INDEC) is gradually regularizing its flow of statistical information, and thereby emerging from the catatonic state into which it had fallen when the Macri administration began revising its methodologies, after years of misreporting statistical data. June’s mo...

E-declarations finally launched
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Sep 2016

On August 31st e-declarations were finally launched. Civil activists also confirm that the system was properly started. Recall in mid-August there had been unfolding a scandal about failed e-declarations launch. On August 15th National agency on corruption prevention launched e-declarations only ...

Senate approves impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2016

Today, Wednesday, August 31, the Brazilian Senate approved the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff by 61 votes to 20. The removed president was convicted of committing fiscal responsibility crimes, the so-called “fiscal maneuvers.” However, she did not lose the ability to hold public office.

Fallout from the Stiglitz-Pieth Disaster
PANAMA · Report · 31 Aug 2016

The financial sector is in the midst of non-friendly fire from abroad. The resignations of renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz and anti-corruption expert Mark Pieth from an ad-hoc commission appointed by President Varela to recommend changes in Panamanian transparency laws was a PR catastrophe. ...

Economy Extends Stalling Pattern, while Parties Mull Congressional Priorities
MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2016

The economic indicators published in August deepened the predominately negative readings of recent months, as continuing signs of weakness extended to the consumption sector of the Mexican economy. Just this past week the revised Gross Domestic Product results for the second quarter showed a seas...

Growth is Gaining Momentum
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Aug 2016

The Central Board of Statistics recently released the National Account Statistics for the second quarter of 2016, which reported an accelerated rate of economic growth. This latest performance exceeded general expectations, including those of the Central Bank. The growth performance was very much...

Medina’s Next Term: Continuity Over Innovation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 30 Aug 2016

President Danilo Medina’s mandatory speech before Congress on the inauguration day of his second four-year term sent a message of continuity, rather than innovation. His words conveyed hope and optimism, as he highlighted the achievements of his first term, and announced goals for the second. No...

The Choice of Peace
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Aug 2016 · 1 response

After almost six years of intense waiting, a peace deal between the government and FARC-EP guerillas was reached in Havana on August 25th. Congress is expected to give it its blessing, and to authorize putting it to a national plebiscite, planned for October 2nd. Despite increased divide between ...

September 1 Protest Could Be Game Changer
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Aug 2016 · 1 response

The opposition’s Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD) has called for a major demonstration on September 1 and dubbed it the Occupation of Caracas. Its ultimate objective: pressure the government into allowing a recall vote this year. If the referendum is pushed into next year and succeeds, Maduro...

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