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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Coup is over, the fall-out is just starting
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jul 2016

I’m trying to write this brief while shuttling back and forth between 6 TV channels and 10 news websites I find more or less reliable, because the rest of the media depicts events with a heavy AKP tilt. All of the analysis is provisional and will be refreshed, as event gain more clarity. Even tho...

​Coup attempt almost dealt with
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Turkey came to the brink of a military coup on Friday night, but limited reporting on still on-the-air TV channels (two opposition ones are off the air) suggest the troops loyal to the government and police are about to deal with the rebels. Yet, it is not over. A few minutes ago I watched an F-1...

President Elect Pedro Pablo Kuczinski Reveals Names of Cabinet Members
PERU · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

President of Cabinet, Fernando Zavala Foreign Affairs, 
Ricardo Luna Mendoza Defense, Mariano González Fernández
 Finance, Alfredo Thorne Interior, 
Carlos Basombrío Education, Jaime Saavedra Health, Patricia García Funegra Labor, Alfonso Grados Carraro Agriculture, José Manuel Hernández Calderon...

​Coup attempt in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

A few minutes after midnight Turkish time, a military entity calling itself “The National Peace Council” declared over the state-owned TRT TV that it has taken control over the government of the country. This is clearly a coup attempt, but I am still in the dark whether it has the full support of...

Improving the Context
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2016

One of Russia’s most progressive governors was publicly arrested based on corruption accusations in what was in fact a conflict between several security services and the Presidential Administration clans. The carefully planned, staged and publicized arrest shows that the rules of the game have ch...

Co-government or militaristic transition?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2016 · 1 response

General Vladimir Padrino Lopez openly joined the political game. In addition to his role as leader of the Bolivarian National Armed Force (FANB) and defense minister, he was appointed Chief of the Great Civic-Military Mission for Sovereign and Secure Supplies by President Maduro, a sort of chief ...

No inflation surprises in June, but housing prices troubling
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Inflation in June reached 0.3% m-o-m and -0.8% y-o-y (similar to last month). Inflation was in line with consensus and our forecast. Inflation was influenced by a 2.8% increase in petrol prices (m-o-m) and a seasonal increase in clothing prices (8.3% m-o-m, 1.3% y-o-y). Food prices declined 1.7% ...

Belling the cat (now what?)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jul 2016

Barely two weeks into office, the administration of Rodrigo Duterte was handed a legal victory that it did not ask for and (probably) does not need. The award, issued by the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, is seen by analysts as a sweeping win for the Philippines against Ch...

Politics: Murder Rate Rebounds to Peak Levels
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2016

The May report from the National System of Public Security (SNSP) confirmed a murder rate growth trend dating back to the beginning of 2015 and a return to levels of four year ago at the peak of the government’s war on organized crime. Four northern states – Baja California, Chihuahua, Tamauli...

Government evaluation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2016

President Michel Temer once again imposed his will on the Legislative with the victory of Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) in the election for the presidency of the House of Representatives, his most important victory since the impeachment vote in the House that removed Dilma Rousseff. Maia obtained 285 vo...

Economics: Effect of Electric Power Rate Hikes
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2016

The Federal Electricity Commission issued a statement this past July 3 announcing that it was raising the electric power rates it charges industrial, commercial and residential customers with high power consumption levels due to the higher prices that the federal electric power utility is paying ...

Brexit: Tremor but no earthquake
CHILE · Report · 14 Jul 2016

It is not evident what the economic cost of Brexit will be for Chile. At the macro level, Chile is not significantly exposed to the UK. What is relevant for Chile is the indirect effect through the impact on its trade partners and the price of copper. What was widely unexpected was the strong app...

Citibank's decision
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2016 · 1 response

On July 11, Citibank notified the Central Bank of Venezuela and Banco de Venezuela that it will discontinue its correspondent banking relationship and service to their accounts in 30 days. The news was brought into the open by President Maduro. It took everyone by surprise and opens room for unce...

Impact of the China debt relief
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Jul 2016 · 4 responses

According to the media, the government of China extended the repayment schedules for Venezuela’s loans by two years. The information has not been officially confirmed.

Macroeconomic headwinds associated with the banking crisis
INDIA · Report · 13 Jul 2016

The official position of the government is that the banking crisis is being contained. From 2013 onwards, bank credit growth has been stable at roughly 4% in real terms. While this is low by historical standards, it does not suggest a crisis. While overall bank credit has been growing at 4% in...

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