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The Fiscal Disaster of President Rousseff’s First Term
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The word “disaster” to describe the Rousseff government’s fiscal policy is no exaggeration. Primary spending has risen continuously alongside abuse of tax relief measures, resulting in a primary surplus totally insufficient to assure the government’s solvency, whether evaluat...

New Letdown from the Fiscal Results
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2014

There were no doubts that the fiscal result for September would be bad, but it turned out to be even worse than most observers predicted. The consolidated public sector debt was R$ 25 billion, reducing the primary surplus from 0.9% to 0.6% of GDP (and to 0.4% of GDP after excluding the effects of...

October Inflation: Broadly As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2014

October CPI inflation came in at 1.9%, broadly as expected, which meant a slight increase in the 12-month rate to 9% from 8.9% in September. There are also no major surprises in terms of sub-components, like the housing category (reflecting energy hikes) and textiles (for seasonal reasons) contri...

Weekly Tracker: November 2-8
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Kobane is still contested, but it is time to look beyond it. Soon, Aleppo may fall to pro-ISIS forces, or to Assad, while other Kurdish cantons may also come under attack. Unless Ankara soon offers the coalition forces access to its airbases, tensions between Turkey and the U.S....

Sliding Oil Prices and Approval Ratings
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Surveys taken between end September and early October show deteriorating support for Nicolás Maduro and his administration. Experts see no chance that these numbers will improve in the short term. Things are looking up for the opposition, which could win a parliamentary majority...

Over-Tightened Policies Constrain Growth
CHINA · Report · 31 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Though GDP grew 7.3% y/y in Q3, down just 0.2 pps from Q2, principal economic indicators suggested that the true situation might be worse. Industrial output rose 8% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q2. Fixed asset investment increased 14.4% y/y, down 2.8 pps, to a record low. Retail...

Few Impressions on the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 31 Oct 2014

There were no major surprises or a whole lot new, in what we heard today at the presentation of the final Inflation Report of the year. Here are a few highlights. Yearend inflation estimates for this and next year -- as usual, midpoints of 70% probability bands -- are now at 8.9% and 6.1%, respec...

Ukraine accepts Gazprom demands and signs ‘winter’ gas supplies contract with Russia
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Oct 2014

Yesterday trilateral agreement for gas supplies till the end of March 2015 between Ukraine, Russia and EU was signed in Brussels. Kyiv accepted Gazprom demand to treat the suggested prices as “price with $100 discount”. Actual gas price will be $378 per tcm till the end of 2014 and $365 per tcm i...

Strong grain harvest prevents 3Q 2014 GDP from deep fall
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Oct 2014

In 3Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP performed much better than we expected. In particular, the State Statistics Service reported 5.1% y/y GDP decline last quarter (we estimated -11.2% y/y). For nine months GDP fell 3.8% y/y according to our estimates. Stronger agro-production performance (+23.9% y/y in 3Q 2...

The COPOM’s Decision
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2014

In the face of inflation hovering near the top of the target interval and projections for 2015 in the same neighborhood (around 6.4%, Graph 1), there were no doubts that the Central Bank would raise the SELIC rate. The surprise was therefore not the increase, but instead the fact it came just aft...

Mixed Credit Picture Year to Date
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Growth in financing to the non bank private sector in Mexico has been led largely in recent months by a significant rise in external financing by large companies at the same time as the flow of consumer credit and loans to smaller companies remains weak. Growth in consumer credi...

After Reelection, Dilma Suffers Defeat in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2014

In the first day of Congressional activity after her reelection, President Dilma Rousseff suffered her first defeat in the House of Representatives.Congressmen approved a bill (PDC 1491/14) that annuls the presidential decree that created the National Policy for Social Participation, with many op...

Political Reform Speed Bump
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Delays in passing political reform will require a major rethinking of the current legislative calendar as informally conceived by the three main political parties. At stake is not only whether the structural reform items listed in the Pact’s agenda can win approval during the cu...

A New Hope
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive Summary October 20th was a milestone date for Indonesia. For the first time in the country’s history, a regional leader was inaugurated as president. Joko “Jokowi” Widodo served two terms as mayor in Solo, Central Java (though the second term was unfinished, due to his move to Jakart...

Toward a Political Crisis?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The September 26 murder of six people, and the disappearance that same evening of 43 students in the state of Guerrero remains a totally open case. With the main suspects (the top officials in the city of Iguala) in hiding, the authorities have only just now begun to indicate th...

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