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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Dicom and money supply will push inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Apr 2016

Inflation will accelerate modestly in April in May to a MOM rate of 10.0 and 15.9 percent, with YOY inflation rising to 345.4 and 368.8 percent. The shortage indicator will exceed the record-high level of 41.3 percent where it settled since November 2015. Our forecast is based on the assumption t...

Downgrade and Slowdown Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2016

Moderate industrial growth, plus service sector and consumption trends, were the main economic growth drivers in March. A positive monthly report from Antad showed that retailers expanded sales in February at their fastest pace in four months. But the broader indicators (IGAE and industrial activ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2016

NIETHER DILMA NOR TEMER... – Dilma Rousseff’s reaction to avoid impeachment continues to ignore the costs her strategy will impose on the country, be they political, institutional or economic. If she wins her “holy war” against impeachment, the government will be even feebler than at the start of...

Official FX reserves fell by €4.2bn in March, but that was a welcome event
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2016

Official FX reserves fell to €27.55bn at end-March from €31.72bn in the previous month, reaching the lowest level since 2009. The cumulative decrease of FX reserves has been €2.8bn since the start of this year. However, this was nothing unexpected, and the MNB is actually looking at this developm...

The Plot Thickens
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Apr 2016

On 4 April 2016 ICSID awarded Crystallex $1.4 billion as compensation for the Las Cristinas gold mine expropriation in 2008. The Venezuelan government could have settled this claim by returning Las Cristinas to Crystallex, were it not that six weeks ago the government included Las Cristinas in th...

Impeachment process
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2016

Supreme Court Minister Marco Aurélio Mello’s decision to determine that the president of the House must accept an impeachment request against vice president Michel Temer and create a committee to analyze the request, caught politicians and legal experts by surprise. The radical nature of the dec...

Is the Game Over? The Implications of the Panama Papers
PANAMA · Report · 05 Apr 2016

A topic we’ve discussed in recent months in this forum appeared this weekend in world news as the “Panama Papers” – the role of a Panamanian law firm in supplying corporations in different jurisdictions to parties managing funds of dubious sources. To move funds, supposedly, to avoid paying taxes...

Where is Dicom heading to?
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Apr 2016

The Dicom rate is rising steadily and quickly. Between March 9 (Exchange Agreement 35) and April 4, the price of the dollar went up by 43 percent. Yesterday, April 4, the rate closed at 295.93 bolivars per dollar (+7.7 percent in the day).

Week of April 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2016

The impeachment enters a new chapter this week. President Dilma Rousseff will present her defense and the rapporteur of the case in the Committee will present his report. The trend is that Jovair Arantes will recommend approval of the impeachment process. The government is articulating changes ...

A hint of a recovery in investment?
INDIA · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Micro data about investment is reliable, and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, on 4 April we are able to observe the Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 quarter. While this is not a robust recovery, it is possibly the be...

The Fiscal Crisis Gets Worse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Anybody who has performed an exercise to size up Brazil’s fiscal imbalance will have reached the conclusion that a huge effort will be required, maintained for several years, to stanch the explosive growth of the public debt. In the 12 months through February 2016, the primary deficit reached R$1...

Fujimori vs. a Pro or an Anti Market Rival?
PERU · Report · 04 Apr 2016

The latest polls confirm that Keiko Fujimori will be forced into a runoff after the April 10th general elections. Results show her commanding 30% to 35% of voter intention, and slightly above 40% of the valid votes—but short of the 50% she’d need for a first-round win. Demonstrations against her ...

March Inflation: Saved by the Devil
TURKEY · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in March, staying broadly unchanged over a month ago, versus consensus forecast of around 0.5% increase. This took the 12-month CPI rate sharply lower to 7.5%, from 8.8% in February, while Domestic-PPI inflation also eased further to 3.8% from 4....

Welcome to a Turbulent Spring
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2016

The politics section is dedicated to explaining AKP’s three contradictory policy goals; the building of a patronage society at home, gaining regional influence and fitting in with the Western alliance. The growing threat from PKK and Syrian Kurds, as well as Russia, rendered immediacy to the acco...

Final fiscal data for 2015 and news on fiscal policy offer little clue on rating upgrade outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Apr 2016

Earlier this week, the ESA2010 deficit of the 2015 general government was reported at 1.9% of GDP (against 2.3% in 2014 and a 2.4% target), whereas the consolidated gross debt ratio for end-2015 came out at 75.3% of GDP (down from 76.2% one year before). Both figures were slightly better than pre...

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