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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of March 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Cid Gomes’s dismissal first step toward ministerial reform The dismissal of the Minister of Education, Cid Gomes (PROS-CE), which took place yesterday afternoon, is a consequence of his clashing with Congress. In opting to remove Cid, the Planalto is signaling a willingness to prevent further det...

Economics: What futures may bring... to the peso
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The exchange rate has risen consistently since September 2014, climbing to an historical high of 15.57 pesos to the dollar on March 10, which marked an accumulated depreciation of 18.2% since September 2014. In that context, Mexico’s Foreign Exchange Commission, presided over by...

Politics: How State Races Are Shaping Up
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Executive Summary As Mexico prepares for its midterm elections to be held June 7, polling data is still scarce when it comes to many of the contests that will be playing out in state and local races. However, there is just enough data available from reliable sources to give us an idea of how thos...

Rough and tumble politics
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Mar 2015

We would have brushed aside as parochial the drama that has unfolded in the City of Makati were it not for the personalities involved. As it is, the situation where two people are claiming to be the lawful mayor has become a test of wills of sorts between the two leading contenders for the presid...

The Current Account Deficit Shrinks in 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Mar 2015

According to official figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit in the current account narrowed to 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of 2014, from 5.8% in 2013. Likewise, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP shrank by 0.7 of a percentage point betwee...

Datafolha poll
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2015

Crisis unravels Dilma’s image, and disapproval reaches 62% Nearly three months after the beginning of Dilma’s second term, disapproval of the president reached 62%, according to the most recent Datafolha poll, published today.Only 13% of voters consider the government “great/good”.Since her inaug...

Recession Through 2016
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 17 Mar 2015

Executive Summary This report extends our macroeconomic outlook to 2016. We revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast to –9.5 percent (from –6.4 percent) and forecast –2.1 growth in 2016. Inflation remains in the triple digits this year and next. The current account balance turns negative (–$14.3 ...

MPC Tries Damage Control
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2015

As expected, given the wobbly behavior of the lira and the recent deterioration in inflation expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee did the cautious thing today, leaving all interest rates unchanged (see graph). As for the content of the statement, the assessments on the current account defi...

The Labor Market as Reflected by the Monthly Version of the National Household Survey (PNAD)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2015

In various previous reports we measured the labor market situation using data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), which is restricted to six metropolitan regions. The other source of job market data produced by the IBGE is the National Household Survey (PNAD), which now has a monthly versio...

Week of March 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2015

The effects of the weekend demonstrations will continue to be felt this week.In Congress, we highlight another attempt to vote on the 2015 Budget.Committees will be installed to analyze the fiscal austerity provisional measures.In the Senate, Political Reform bills will be discussed.The House wil...

The End of Exuberance
PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The government has grown more conciliatory after losing its congressional majority. But it’s open season on criticism, with even Vice President Marisol Espinosa finding fault with government policies and ruling party attitudes at times. Dialogue with the opposition resulted in a...

Weekly Tracker: March 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2015

Executive SummaryIn this Econ-only Tracker, we briefly review the latest date releases and preview the upcoming MPC meeting on Tuesday. We think the MPC will keep rates on hold this week, given the circumstances, even though this solves close to nothing in terms of broader uncertainties regarding...

A Big Growth Surprise from Net Exports
HUNGARY · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Detailed GDP figures for Q4 2014 show that the unexpected strength of output (+0.8% qoq sda) was mainly due to a pick-up in net exports. Consumer demand was also relatively strong, while fixed investment was losing momentum, and inventory accumulation remained markedly negative....

Developments in Fiscal, Financial and Monetary Institutions
INDIA · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary There is an important three-pronged move in institution building, which comprises: (a) formal inflation targeting at RBI; (b) unburdening RBI of the conflict of interest of debt management for the government; and (c) giving RBI a bond market through which monetary policy would b...

The Fiscal Deficit, Stupid
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary In this report, we update the concerns presented a year ago in our report “Dangerous Monetary Arithmetic”. We go into detail with regards the monetary implications of a rising fiscal deficit and the sustainability of the Central Bank’s sterilization cost. The Central Bank steril...

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