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Weekly Tracker: Mar 27-Apr 2
TURKEY · Report · 27 Mar 2016

PM Davutoglu announced that AKP’s draft Constitution will be presented to parliament by late May/early June, which means a general floor vote on a nation-wide referendum. We go further and claim that a snap election is a serious possibility. An American prosecutor ordered the arrest of Turkish...

Meeting the New Challenges
PANAMA · Report · 24 Mar 2016

The IMF’s Article IV report published on March 19th is in tune with our concerns and perspectives in regards to macroeconomic conditions: strong growth projections remain in place (around 5.9%-6% for 2016); the fiscal deficit in 2015 was 2.8% of GDP not the 2.0% that the MEF reported after the “a...

Guatemala: Reverting to Normal
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2016

After a rollercoaster year, with the political situation driving the action, Guatemala seems to be normalizing. Back are the days when corruption scandals erupted almost every month, and people were calling for the resignation of President Pérez and Vice President Baldetti -- both now in prison,...

The MPC’s Not-So Surprising Move
TURKEY · Report · 24 Mar 2016

Contrary to consensus, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the O/N lending rate by 25 bps today, while leaving the other short-term rates (one-week repo and the O/N borrowing rates) unchanged (Graph 1). We are not too surprised with the move, as we had put the odds in favor of a cut of the O/...

The list that haunts Brasília
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2016

A leaked list of 200 legislators from 18 parties (including the PMDB, PSDB, PPS, PCdoB and DEM) who received bribes from Odebrecht Infraestrutura was received with apprehension in Brasília. The document is part of the 23rd phase of the Lava Jato Operation, focused on João Santana, responsible for...

Economics: Economy Defies External Winds
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2016

The main driver of growth in the Mexican economy during 2015 was to be found in the internal market, especially on the level of private consumption. Diverse indicators show that private consumption’s growth dynamic continues to be driven by the firming of the formal sector labor market as both th...

Politics: Crime, Graft Further Erode Gov’t Ratings
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2016

After having achieved passage of its agenda of structural reforms during the first half of its term of office, we believe that the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto should prioritize in its final three years in office work toward concretizing and assuring the full implementation of t...

Gloomy and Difficult
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2016

A group of retired officers attended a February 26th military ceremony clad entirely in black, then stalked off across the red carpet when President Rafael Correa began to speak. Correa called them “little naughties,” but his nervousness was evident, when he entered the ceremony surrounded by hea...

Aggressive loosening step came from the MNB today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Mar 2016

At today's scheduled monthly rate-setting meeting, the MNB cut the base rate by 15 bps to 1.2%, and in addition it reduced the O/N interest rate corridor to -0.05 to 1.45% from the previous 0.1-2.1%. Besides, it said as a conclusion of its quarterly inflation report that average CPI-inflation is ...

The Housing Boom is Back
CHINA · Report · 22 Mar 2016

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced in an address to Congress on March 5th that the economic growth target would be 6.5%-7% for 2016 - the first time a GDP growth target was set for a particular time frame. Industrial output rose 5.4% y/y, a new low in the current cycle of decline. Fixed asset in...

Not Much Progress
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2016

​Exchange Agreement 35 is far from solving the deep distortions caused by foreign exchange controls. Moving from three to two controlled exchange rates, with a fixed "protected" rate (Dipro) and a "complementary floating market” rate (Dicom), is a baby step in the right direction, and the authori...

Week of March 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2016

This will be a short week due to the holidays (Thursday and Friday). The Impeachment Committee sets its work schedule. The government may announce economic measures, including the bill on state and municipal debt, and fiscal reform, with a spending ceiling. Measures related to the My House, My Li...

Should Brazil Use its International Reserves?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2016

Frequent pressures have been exerted in the sense of “use the reserves to stimulate renewed economic growth”. The Central Bank knows the history of the many foreign exchange crises experienced by the country, all of them produced by economic policy mistakes, and certainly has developed institutio...

Admirable precision or convenient accounting?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Mar 2016

The Ministry of Finance just reported the fiscal balance figures for 2015. The results indicate that budget management was right on target: the deficit of the Central Government reached almost exactly the goal for the year, DOP 72.7 bn or 2.38% of GDP. The striking thing is that until October,...

Countercyclical Measures?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2016

In an extreme gesture, aiming to muffle the political crisis, Dilma Rousseff decided to appoint Lula to be her new chief of staff. It was an act of desperation with very low chances of succeeding. So far he has been barred from assuming the position by injunctions. Last week the great majority of...

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