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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cold but not freezing
CHILE · Report · 08 Jun 2016

The economy is growing at low rates, with neither signs of a recovery nor of an additional slowdown. In April retail sales came out looking relatively good, while other sectorial indicators pointed in the opposite direction. Business confidence suffered a considerable decline, while international...

The economy under “Duterminator”
PHILIPPINES · Report · 08 Jun 2016

71-year old Rodrigo Duterte, the oldest Filipino to be elected president, will assume office at the end of the month. Backed by close to 40% of the electorate, he will take the helm of government with an indisputable 6-year mandate, amidst high hopes that radical change will happen under his wat...

RBI will try to curb rupee volatility
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2016

As expected, RBI did not cut the policy rate in its credit policy announcement on Tuesday. However, again, as we had expected, the RBI Governor did say that the stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative and he is looking for room to ease. Yet, it given the hawkish stance on inflationary...

No deadline for Supreme Court to decide on arrests of PMDB leaders
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2016

Based on information available up to this point, the likelihood is that Minister Teori Zavascki will reject the requests for the imprisonment of Senators Renan Calheiros and Romero Jucá, as well as of federal representative Eduardo Cunha, and for the use of an electronic ankle monitor for former ...

The Worst is Over
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jun 2016

Things in Ukraine keep looking up. Ukrainian singer Jamala’s victory at the Eurovision 2016 international song contest, Nadiya Savchenko’s release from a Russian jail cell, and dozens of other pieces of positive news have all helped boost public morale. After two years of hardship, Ukrainians are...

Terror and tourism
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2016 · 1 response

Another deadly car bomb killed seven policemen and four civilians in the old city district of Vezneciler (Istanbul) today, while injuring 36, of whom 3 are reported to be in critical condition. The bomb was so powerful that two historic mosques, a hotel and a co-ed dormitory were partially damage...

Will slower demand and a good monsoon give us a rate cut?
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Jun 2016

The credit policy announcement on Tuesday, June 7, 2016 comes at a time when CPI data shows a rate of 5.4 percent for April, and GDP growth of 7.9 percent for the Jan-Mar quarter. This has led most commentators to expect no change in the policy rate in the upcoming announcement.But an argument fo...

Week of June 6
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2016

The information published by Veja magazine on the plea bargain deal signed by Leo Pinheiro (OAS) and Marcelo Odebrecht will have serious repercussions in Brasília. The Senate Impeachment Committee defines its work schedule. In the House, we highlight the decision of the Ethics Council on Eduardo ...

Modest Growth
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Jun 2016

GDP expanded by 2.5% in 1Q, in line with market expectations. The leading sector was the manufacturing industry, up by 5.3%, mostly as a result of the Cartagena Refinery’s operation, which soared by 20%. The rest of the manufacturing industry’s performance was less spectacular, aside from beverag...

Might the Recession be Nearing its End?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jun 2016

A few weeks ago we showed that our leading indicator already presages that GDP will stop falling in the third quarter this year. Last week the IBGE announced that GDP in the first quarter only declined by 0.3% – far less than the median of expectations. This was good news. However, when looking a...

Economic growth in April: 10.1%!
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

Last week, the Central Bank announced that the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE, for its Spanish acronym) for the month of April registered a 10.1% expansion in economic activity. This is an impressive figure, with few precedents. Also IMAE results for March registered a growth of 7.2...

The Waiting Game
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

Two pollsters give Pedro Pablo Kuczynski al slight lead according to their 'rapid count', which is based on a sample of actual voting ballots.Ipsos Kuczynski : 50.5% Fujimori : 49.5%GFK Kuczynski 50.8%: Fujimori: 49.2%Error margin: plus/minus 1% ONPE, the oficial electoral body will not be able t...

Ahead of Today's Election Results
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

During the very last days of the campaign we have seen a rapid climb in the vote intention in favor of Kuczynski. They are now neck and neck and given an error margin of 2-3 pp up or down, it will be difficult to draw a meaningful conclusion early on just by assessing exit polls. Later in the eve...

Weekly Tracker: June 5-11
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2016

An Armenian genocide bill that was passed by the lower chamber of the German parliament hurt Turks’ feelings, but it is unlikely to lead to substantive sanctions by the government. On the other hand, the Refugee Deal is dead and Turkey-EU relations are unlikely to be a matter of economic or marke...

A setback at Audi found behind the weakness industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2016

As is well-known for the reader, gross industrial output only grew by a marginal 0.5% yoy in Q1, dominated by a 1.4% yoy decrease of the output of the car industry, which represents close to one-third of the total industrial sector. And all that came after 8.8% yoy growth in industry and 18.6% yo...

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