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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Will China Save the Day?
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2015

Executive Summary President Maduro signaled policy continuity in his annual address to the legislature last January 21. We see no signs that severe shortages and spiraling inflation will be tamed and remain as uncertain as we were last month regarding the probability of default. We project net ou...

Repo Rate Unchanged on Improved Inflation Prospects
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jan 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.75%. In acknowledging the continued weakness of the South African economy, Governor Lesetja Kganyago mentioned that the earlier emphasized interest rate normalization process will be pau...

The IMF mission to stay one more week in Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jan 2015

The IMF mission, which arrived in Kyiv on January 12 and was expected to finalize its work on January 29, will stay one more week in Kyiv, media reported. In our opinion it is a positive signal. After crazy budget 2015 the authorities approved in late December 2014 it is good the parties still ha...

4Q14 GDP at 6.9%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Jan 2015

Government announced today a 6.9% GDP growth in 4Q14 that brought the full year average to 6.1%, exactly matching our forecast made early in the year. The big contributor to 4Q14 growth was net exports as sales of electronics products quickened and imports were held down by port congestion and st...

The “New Normal”
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Growth has been slowing, with the 7.4% rise in real GDP in 2014 representing a 0.3 pp dip from 2013. That means growth has run below 8% for three years in a row. Quarterly growth rates were quite flat last year, too. Some depressive factors are worth noting. First, industr...

The growing corrosive power of the Petrolão scandal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2015

Two new pieces of information add potentially explosive elements to the crisis surrounding the Petrobras corruption allegations. According to the Radar Online column, the President of UTC, Ricardo Pessoa, is collaborating with the Lava Jato operation on a plea bargain deal in exchange for informa...

2014 Inflation: Puzzling Data
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2015

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the household food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas). This data has shown significant correlation with the NCPI food subindex. Acco...

Economics: Weaker Economic Census Results
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The National Statistics Office (Inegi) recently released the preliminary version of the results from its 2014 Economic Census. The census, conducted in 2014, collected statistical data information on the activities of business establishments during 2013. The census, which is con...

Politics: Parties Fiddle as 2015 Campaign Looms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A major threat to the credibility of the June elections consists of the degree to which the parties act as if they are utterly oblivious to the extent to which they are held in disrepute and proceed as if all were business as usual, preoccupied by infighting and the seemingly et...

A Boost from Abroad
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The global economy will boost Central American economies this year.This is, first, because of the expected behavior of the U.S. economy, the most important export market for the region, and the main source of private remittances for El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The secon...

Hawkish Till February 4th
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2015

Today Governor Basci presented the first Inflation Report of the year. This year's yearend inflation estimate was revised down by 0.6 pps on the back of lower oil prices, down to 5.5% (midpoint). The key highlight of the meeting however was what the Governor said during the Q&A session: if Januar...

Oil+ECB=Turkey Decouples?
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2015

Executive Summary After a volatile year, Turkey has had a good start into 2015, the main driver being a collapsing oil price. Indeed, there is little doubt that a sharply lower oil price, bolstered by ECB tailwinds, is a great boon for Turkey’s macro balances and offers a cyclical opportunity for...

Under New Management
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The resounding failure of the economic policy practiced between 2011 and 2014 culminated in the replacement of Guido Mantega by Joaquim Levy as finance minister, and prompted an about-face in economic policy. The diagnosis has changed and the new macroeconomic policy orientat...

Week of January 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

Politically, this will be an intense week.President Dilma Rousseff meets with her ministerial team.She will ask for an end to public disagreements and support for the fiscal effort.Unions will strike nationally to revoke changes made to labor and social security rights.The race for the presidenci...

Where is the Real Headed?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

In the past several days the real has appreciated, interrupting a lengthy period of gradual weakening. At the start of the year, the exchange rate was fluctuating in the neighborhood of R$ 2.70/US$, but recently it has gotten stronger, closing last week at R$2.58/US$. The real is one of the curre...

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