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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Relief comes from oil, not from China
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2016

We update our foreign exchange cash flow forecast for 2016 bringing into the picture a slightly more positive outlook for oil prices and our reading of Minister Miguel Pérez Abad’s recent announcements on China, imports, and foreign exchange policy. Our deficit forecast remains almost unchanged a...

On Today's Vote and Tuesday's MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 May 2016 · 3 responses

In a rather surprising development, the Turkish parliament voted today to lift the immunities of some 139 MPs from prosecution. (Click here and here for basic media coverage). Recall that the first round of voting was held on Tuesday, but the parliament had failed to pass the two proposed amendme...

Fiscal deficit reaches R$ 230 billion; Meirelles to announce a set of measures on Monday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2016

The deficit in the public accounts is expected to reach approximately R$ 230 billion this year, according to preliminary government data. The R$ 96 billion to which the previous administration admitted has been corrected to R$ 161 billion. The amount of R$ 15 to R$ 40 billion will be added to the...

​Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 May 2016

It is still difficult to listen to him for long. The curses and threats continue to roll off his tongue, his speeches remain stuck in a one-note anti-crime spiel, and his behavior suggests that he has yet to see himself other than a small town mayor. And he is not going to make it easy for the an...

The SARB Puts the Interest Rate Hike on Hold
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2016

Just as we had predicted, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy committee (MPC) paused its hiking of the baseline interest rate at its May 2016 meeting, which was also its third meeting in the current year. This was the first time the SARB did not raise the repurchase (repo) rat...

GDP growth accelerates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 May 2016

Government today announced that the economy grew 6.9% in 1Q16, higher than the median analyst forecast of 6.5%. As expected, election spending was a key growth driver pushing up government consumption (+10%) and construction investment (+40%) as well as household expenditures (+7%). The latter, c...

Post election tensions
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 May 2016

Four days after national elections, the country is living in tension because the final tally for Congress and municipal authorities haven’t been finished. Negligence and serious organizational problems in a complex by nature process have become apparent and have caused serious delays and tensions...

Economics: Dubious Paths to Reinventing Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2016

The new management team at Pemex that CEO José Antonio González presides over has been on the job for almost 100 days, a period in which it was almost immediately faced with deep budget cuts ordered by the Ministry of Finance, followed by protests by Pemex suppliers over the mushrooming amounts t...

Politics: Elections 2016: A closer look
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2016

Until not long ago it looked as though the PRI would have little problem winning most all of the 12 governors’ mansions that will be up for grabs the first Sunday of June. But following more than five weeks of campaigning, the races have tightened considerably, and the governing party looks to be...

​Immunities vote adds to political uncertainty
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 May 2016

Debating and voting all night, the Turkish Grand Assembly failed to secure the 367 votes necessary to ratify the two amendments to lift the immunities of those deputies who are under indictment or already convicted of various crimes. The motion to advance to voting of the two articles of the prov...

Are these the last days of Mehmet Simsek in the administration?
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 May 2016

Luck has it that I must leave town on a family matter between Wednesday and Sunday, leaving you without updates until early Monday hours regarding developments in AKP. I’m hoping to fire out a final update early Wednesday to report on the outcome of the first round of voting for the lifting of th...

Surprising Weakness in Q1 GDP
HUNGARY · Report · 16 May 2016

GDP dropped by 0.8% qoq in Q1, a big negative surprise for both official and market analysts. Construction output fell by more than a quarter from Q1 2015, signaling a collapse of EU-backed fixed investment early this year. In addition, manufacturing growth greatly weakened, led by a small drop i...

Minister Pérez Abad charts the course
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 May 2016

Pérez Abad’s announcements confirm our perceptions, as explained in our most recent forecast report. The minister said the government is forcing imports to fall by 50% to $20 bn in 2016 by restricting access to official dollars by the private sector. We forecast a 56% decline to $16 bn. In his vi...

A New Central Bank President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2016

Concrete measures and strategic positions in the ministries will be announced this week. Michel Temer will have his first test in Congress, with the vote on the change to the 2016 fiscal target. The PT defines its strategy for the PMDB administration. Leaders in the House continue to search for ...

President Danilo Medina wins reelection with 62% of the votes
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 May 2016

Danilo Medina has been reelected as President of the Dominican Republic with 62% of the votes, according to preliminary data from the Junta Central Electoral (central board of elections). Challenging candidate Luis Abinader received 35% of the votes. Guillermo Moreno received almost 2% of the vot...

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