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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Perfect Alignment of the Stars Lowers Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Aug 2013

As expected, the IPCA showed significant deceleration in July, at only 0.03%, which is even lower than the IPCA-15 for the month, which had reached 0.07%. With this, the IPCA over the 12 previous months amounted to 6.27% (Graph 1), slightly below the upper bound of the target interval. The moveme...

Continuing Weakness at 2Q
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2013

Economic Panorama In the Economic Panorama section of our previous Monthly Trends issue, we argued that, based on the very preliminary data available at that time, it appeared that the economic slowing apparent in the first quarter had been intensifying over the course of the second quarter of th...

Michoacán: Spiraling Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2013

Political Outlook A series of developments over the past week in the central western state of Michoacán confirmed that security conditions there continue to deteriorate in dramatic fashion. The list of incidents was led off on Sunday, July 28 with the gangland murder of Vice Admiral Carlos Miguel...

Sobyanin a Shoo-In
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2013

Several forces among the ruling elite are challenging one another, though all are trying to help Sergei Sobyanin be reelected as mayor to Moscow to this September. This situation has given challenger Alexey Navalny a popularity boost. Though his chances as still mostly theoretical, his treatment ...

Inflation: No help from fiscal policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2013

For the past few weeks the official pronouncements have been celebrating the transitory fall of inflation caused by the reduction of food prices as a whole. But the end of this period is approaching, and from now on the dominant factor will be the effect of the weaker exchange rate on inflation. ...

And the pass-through starts..
TURKEY · Report · 05 Aug 2013

Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in July, taking the 12-month rate to just below 9% (8.9%), from 8.3% in June. The increase is in line with expectations, and near the 9% level Governor Basci had hinted during the presentation of the Inflation Report last week. Producer prices also continued to rise t...

Difficult Days Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The fall of food prices will still reduce inflation for a few weeks, but the pass-through of the weaker exchange rate to consumer prices will soon raise current inflation. Besides this, the government has exhausted its arsenal of actions on the prices of some specific products t...

Political Insights: Week of August 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2013

A week of expectations.The government is trying to mend dialogue with its base.A series of meetings between allies and the government are scheduled for this week.In Congress, party leaders in the House and Senate discuss the voting agenda for the next few weeks.A meeting of the national leadershi...

Times They Are a-Changin’
TURKEY · Report · 02 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryThe Gezi Park incident may represent the turning point for the AKP administration. It is facing the severest trials of its 11-year reign, but so far, it has failed to effectively deal with them. After the loss of Egypt, Ankara is also fumbling the ball in Syria. An Arab-Kurdish w...

After the Fiasco
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryPresident Ollanta Humala is trying to recover lost ground, on the heels of the Repsol fiasco that led to both a loss of business confidence and a weakening of his own approval ratings. So low have the president's ratings fallen that his wife Nadine Heredia, whose name we used to ...

Downside Risks Loom Large
CHINA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2013

Executive Summary Chinese leaders saw this slowdown coming. Shortly before Q2 growth data were released – revealing growth at 7.5% y/y -- Premier Li Keqiang vowed to safeguard “bottom lines.” Yet we may see further slowing in Q3. Some pundits suggest the bottom line might be the 7% target note...

Industrial Production: Slow Recovery in the First Half and Likely Deceleration in the Second
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Aug 2013

Industrial output in June reversed the 1.8% decline in May, growing by 1.9%, and the rate over the preceding 12 months was 3.1%. However, it must be considered that the seasonal adjustment made by the IBGE does not account for the effect of the Corpus Christi holiday, which usually falls in June ...

An Unnecessary Mess
INDIA · Report · 31 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The government’s defense of the rupee is turning a difficult situation into a mess. This damages the outlook for the rupee, for the Nifty and for the economy. In addition, an unregulated commodity spot exchange (“NSEL”) has suspended trading and promises delayed payments on outs...

Persistence in Labor Market Weakness
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jul 2013

Robust and sustainable job creation remains a key economic challenge in South Africa. According to figures released by StatsSA, employment posted a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter of 2013, while unemployment rose by 2.6% q/q during the same quarter (Q2 2013). Against this b...

Waiting for the Plan
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Early in the week the United Nation’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) downwardly adjusted its growth estimates for the current year for Mexico (from 3.5% to 2.8%) and for other countries in the region. Combined with the lowered forecast for Brazil...

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