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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Perpetual Election Mode
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary We’re all focused on the December 6 National Assembly elections, but voters will also choose governors in 2016, mayors in 2017, and a president in 2018. And there just might be a presidential recall referendum after April of next year. This means that the government will rema...

A Heavy Burden
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary In Argentina nobody discusses the need for a correction in economic policy. The debate is only about the scale and the speed of the required adjustments. The old debate concerning “gradualism versus shock” has returned with the intensity it had in the literature of stabilization...

Costa Rica: The Central Bank revised its Macroeconomic Program
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2015

As stated by law, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced yesterday its revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2015-2016, which was originally published in late January. There are no major changes in the Bank´s policy orientation, but there is a revision in the forecast of the macro-variables for...

En route to hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2015

We forecast the NCPI August MOM inflation rate at 18.3 percent. The YOY rate rises to 208.5 percent in August from 171.0 percent in July. Inflation accelerates reflecting the rapid rise of the price of the dollar in the parallel market in July (41.8 percent), steady monetary expansion, supply cha...

Costa Rica: Fiscal Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for the next 17 months is for modest growth, and relative stability. But fiscal vulnerability will present challenges for controlling inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate. By yearend, we expect to see modest economic growth (2.3% y/y); low h...

Can this tell us about future price action?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015

If this model is appropriate (i.e. if enough investors believe that there is a consensus around brokers selling substantially once the index breaks 4,500), there are two obvious implications. First, if Beijing wants the market to keep rising, it must either convince investors that brokers will no...

The consensus about the consensus
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015

I don’t know if this is indeed what triggered the selling, but on Thursday, July 23, following a string of uninterrupted up days, the market closed at a new recent high of 4,124, after which it dropped sharply every day for the next three days to close down by just over 11%, at 3,663. This is exa...

Long stocks = short synthetic put?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015

My worry was that as the index approached 4,100 or higher, the threat of intense selling by capital-tight brokers at 4,500 meant that anyone buying shares was implicitly giving away a free call at 4,500, and the higher prices went, the less upside there was and the more downside. Remember that if...

But is there a speed bump?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015

There was one measure about which there is some disagreement as to its size and its importance, but this might be more than counterbalanced by the very simple and clear signal it gives. Sorry for repeating my earlier messages, but here is what I wrote back then: "I realize this is very abstract, ...

The power of Beijing's "brute force"
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015

Three weeks ago Beijing managed to stop the panic with the use of what I called “brute force”, by which I meant that there was never likely to be much impact from interest rate moves, regulatory changes, margin relaxation, and so on. This is because there had been such a remarkable convergence am...

Back to Orthodoxy, Timidly, Obscurely
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2015

The CBRT Governor Erdem Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the year today.There were no significant revisions to inflation forecasts with the (midpoint) of end-2015 forecast revised up by 0.1 pp to 6.9% (from 6.8% earlier), and the end-2016 forecast kept unchanged at 5.5% as before. Go...

Turn back to the center?
CHILE · Report · 30 Jul 2015

Executive summary The recently appointed Minister of Finance, Rodrigo Valdés, rang the alarm: the fiscal situation is not as good as we may think. Fiscal discipline is in Valdés´s DNA. He convinced most relevant actors that there is not enough money to push the reforms as fast as previously ex...

Bubble Burst, the Chinese Way
CHINA · Report · 29 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Though growth is still low, we expect it to pick up H2, driven by several positive factors. GDP grew 7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output in Q2 was up 6.3% y/y, virtually flat on Q1. But output was up 6.8% y/y in June, its highest level this year, and up 1.2 pps fro...

Economics: Programs Fail to Avert Poverty Rise
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Last week the National Council for the Evaluation of Public Policy (Coneval) released new poverty data for Mexico based on information contained in the National Statistics Office’s National Survey of Household Income and Spending for 2014 (ENIGH 2014), which we analyzed in last ...

​Chief Prosecutor initiates investigation into HDP
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2015

After Erdogan accused the pro-Kurdish rights party HDP of being the accomplice of PKK and reiterated that the Kurdish Peace is over, Turkey’s Chief Prosecutor didn’t waste time leaking it to the press that his office began collecting evidence with a view on pressing charges against HDP for aiding...

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