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Weekly Tracker: January 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A car bomb exploded at the gates of the hotel in Mogadishu where the Turkish delegation was staying, but we are not sure this was a message to Erdogan. For the time being, fundamentalist terror is fortunately staying away from Turkey. The impeachment vote of four ex-ministers mu...

Devaluation 2015: Act Two
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 Jan 2015

Maduro’s announcements on 21 January 2015 devalue the bolivar by morphing the exchange rate regime, keeping multiple exchange rates, forex controls and rationing. Arbitrage and corruption will continue marring the system. President Maduro said this regime is "temporary”. The price of the dollar r...

Dominican Rep government placed Sovereign Bonds for USD 2.5 bn
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jan 2015

The government of the Dominican Republic announced that it placed Sovereign Bonds for USD 2.5 bn. USD 1 bn worth of bonds were placed with 10 years maturity at an interest rate of 5.5%, and USD 1.5 bn were placed with 30 years maturity at an interest rate of 6.85%. Average maturity of the two lot...

Dilma’s Second Term
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2015

Fiscal Adjustment Measures adopted by the Economy Team The following is a summary table with the fiscal measures adopted by President Dilma’s economy team. Of the 11 announced acts, three were still not published in the official gazette and six still depend on legislative approval.Date Topic What...

Waiting for the Sun
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Time and again, economists have revised down expected growth for 2015, this time, from 2.7% in December to 2.6% in January (Central Bank's Survey of Economists). The Imacec (monthly index of economic activity) expanded a meager 1.3% in the 12 months to November, while the yoy...

Rough Road Ahead
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary This year will be rough, and next year even rougher. While the full impact of plummeting oil prices will only hit fiscal accounts next year, the government faces huge challenges now in trying to calm investors’ jitters, and to restore confidence. This will involve showing how th...

Economics: Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The international oil market has continued to experience an excess supply of crude, and except in the United States, weak demand through the first weeks of 2015. As a result, the prices of all varieties of crude have been plummeting. As we have mentioned in previous issues of We...

Politics: Rocky Start to 2015 Campaign
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Last week produced numerous reminders of the internal party divisions plaguing the opposition. The center-right PAN rebuffed the request of Margarita Zavala to run for Congress, prompting the wife of ex Mexican President Felipe Calderón and former member of Congress to announce ...

Confidence in the Midst of an Airline Disaster
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Three days before the new year 2015, an Indonesian-Malaysian aircraft lost contact halfway between Surabaya, Indonesia’s second largest city, and Singapore, a two-hour flight. AirAsia is a low-cost airline owned by Tony Fernandes, a successful Malaysian airline businessman wh...

Week of January 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2015

President Dilma’s second-term economics team makes its first international trip:Joaquim Levy (Finance) and Alexandre Tombini (Central Bank) participate in the World Economic Forum in Davos, but Dilma Rousseff cancelled her participation due to the inauguration of reelected Bolivian president, Evo...

A High Stakes Budget Speech
INDIA · Report · 20 Jan 2015

Executive Summary When the Modi administration took charge, there was euphoria and a genuine sense of possibility. However, the first eight months do not bode well. The economic downturn that began in 2010 has not reversed, the fiscal situation remains daunting, and a small part of the Indian rea...

MPC: Between the President and the Lira
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jan 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced its one-week repo rate by a relatively sizable 50 bps to 7.75%, while keeping the O/N corridor intact (see chart). The move was relatively unexpected in the sense that the majority of participants in the recent CNBC-e poll, for instance, had expected th...

China To The Rescue
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The government announced that Eximbank and the China Development Bank had agreed to extend $7.5 billion in loans.Though Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera said $4 billion would probably be disbursed in 2015, it’s likely that only $1.5 billion will be available to help finance th...

Household Consumption: No Reason for Optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jan 2015

The steady decline of industrial output in 2014 is one of the reasons for the stagnation of the IBC-Br (Graph 1). Although there are some discrepancies between the quarterly variations of GDP and the IBC-Br, they tend to even out over longer periods, during which the IBC-Br acts as a good proxy f...

Weekly Tracker: January 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2015

Executive Summary As ISIS and Yemeni al-Qaeda urge their followers to attack Europe, authorities in large EU countries remain on high alert, leading us to think that Charlie Hebdo-like incidents may occur more frequently. Ankara, too, remains deeply concerned about contagion from fundamentalist t...

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