GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Winners and losers Nicolas Maduro and PSUV are clear winners in the December 8 municipal elections. They have good reasons to celebrate even if the joy was not complete. According to the National Electoral Council, PSUV led the national vote count by a 6.5 percent margin over the opposition coali...

Confused Reactions to a Worsening Scenario

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2013

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The GDP result for the third quarter put paid to optimism regarding Brazilian growth. Not only have the perspectives worsened for 2013; the outlook is now more likely for mediocre growth in 2014. If we take stock prices as a leading indicator of growth, they point to acceleratio...

The Current Account Deficit and Fiscal Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2013

Between December 2012 and the end of last October, the current account deficit rose from US$ 54.2 billion, or 2.4% of GDP, to US$ 82.2 billion, or 3.7% of GDP (Graph 1). The worsening of the current accounts closely follows the decline of the trade balance, which are near zero and are only not wo...

Mandela’s Macroeconomic Policy Legacy Persists

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2013

The passing of new South Africa’s founding president, Nelson Mandela, affectionately known as Madiba, is yet another remarkable moment in the country’s young democratic dispensation. Once again, the nation has arisen to defy all predictions of chaos and negativity – instead unifying across all ra...

Weekly Tracker: December 8-14

TURKEY · Report · 08 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last Monday AKP extended an olive branch to the Gulen Church by delaying the closure of private tutoring schools for two years. This gesture may reduce the “headline” risk, but mutual sniping and harping continues, suggesting a permanent rift. There are very few election polls, ...

A New Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Dec 2013

Executive Summary In this report, we present a new leading indicator of economic activity in Brazil. Its most important characteristic is to forecast the turning points of economic cycles. Our methodology follows that of the OECD. In constructing our indicator, we started with 52 candidate variab...

In Bad Company

PERU · Report · 06 Dec 2013

Executive Summary New Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva, quite successful as president of the San Martin region at eradicating coca leaf crops, has been lauded for his hands-on approach to governance. That will be a refreshing change, as Villanueva’s predecessor seemed uncomfortable with decision-m...

Top-Level Individual Tasks

CIS POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2013

Putin’s personal involvement and intense economic handwringing in Ukrainian–EU relations allowed him to halt and postpone the Association agreement. However, his goal is beyond that, as Russia is trying all means to coerce Ukraine into joining the Customs Union. The Russian leadership has much ec...

Guide for December 8

VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2013

What’s at stake? Chavismo currently controls 85 % of the municipalities in the country (284 out of 335). In all likelihood, it will continue controlling a significant majority of municipalities after December 8. In our view, three indicators will be used to measure success in the upcoming electio...

Industrial Production: Positive Result, But Not a Clear Recovery Trend

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2013

Industrial output has been extremely volatile for several months, so much so that it even appears in the 12-month rates, which by construction should behave more smoothly (Graph 1). For this reason, the short-term numbers only provide imprecise information on the trend. The data in Graph 1 show a...

GDP: Another Frustrating Result...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2013

The frustrating GDP growth in the third quarter – worse than the median of market forecasts – requires us not only to revise the projection for GDP growth in 2013, but also for 2014. The third-quarter result has made it virtually impossible to reach our previous projection of 2.5% growth in 2013....

Mean Reversion Reigns

TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2013

After a few bad prints of late, CPI inflation surprised favorably today, which is not that unusual historically, given the mean reverting nature of the gap between actual and forecasted inflation (Graph 1).The surprise, in turn, as it is also often the case, was driven by food prices to a large e...

New Inklings of Growth

MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryThe economic data released last month mainly corresponded to September and October, and for the most part was negative. Consumer confidence slumped significantly in September (3.3 index points lower than August’s reading), and in October (2.9 points below that of September). The ...

RSA Secures its Place among the “Fragile Five”

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2013

According to a set of figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the current account deficit has remained in excess of 5% of GDP since 2012 (see Graph 1). This – coupled with a shortfall in the government balance as well as anemic growth – suggests that South Africa has secured its...

Political Insights: Week of December 2

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2013

A full economic agenda this week:On Tuesday, IBGE releases revised GDP results for 2012 and economic performance figures for Q3. On Thursday, the Central Bank releases the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. On Friday, IBGE releases November’s IPCA. In the House o...