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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth Rate Is Lower Than Targeted
CHINA · Forecast · 10 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Our growth projection for 2014 falls between the government’s 7.5% forecast, and the lower projection of our pessimistic peers: we foresee 2014 growth at 7.4%. Though GDP grew 7.3% y/y in Q3, down just 0.2 pps from Q2, China’s main economic indicators suggested that the true ...

Draft Budget Lacks Policy Turn
HUNGARY · Report · 10 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Monthly indicators reflect still significant growth but also a marked slowdown in industry and construction, exports, wages and retail sales. This cooling trend started 4-5 months ago, and it will likely be reinforced by a weakening Europe and post-election fiscal tightening in ...

Political Insights: Week of November 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2014

The House and Senate will examine important matters this week:The House may vote on the compulsory budget, and Senators could vote on the validation of fiscal benefits given to states without the approval of Confaz.Dilma takes her first international trip after her reelection.She will participate...

A New Decline in Industrial Production
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2014

Industrial output fell 0.2% in September, completing the fifth straight quarter of contraction (Graph 1). The decline observed in the third quarter was smaller than in the second (-0.2% versus -1.9%), which will lead to better GDP performance in the third quarter than in the second (-0.6%). All t...

Gross international reserves plunged 23.2% down to $12.6 billion in October
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2014

In October gross international reserves plummeted by $ 3.8 billion down to $12.6 billion, the Central bank reported on Nov. 7. The decline appeared much stronger than expected. We recognized that $1.6 billion redemption on Naftogaz Eurobonds and state debt redemptions (including $233 million to t...

Moody's improved outlook to stable from negative for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2014

Fact: Moody's improved outlook to stable from negative on its Ba1 government bond rating for Hungary yesterday. The Hungarian sovereign has BB+ from Fitch Ratings and BB from Standard & Poor's on its long-term debt. Moody's based its decision on the following drivers: 1) Improving medium-term eco...

Pressures and Risks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2014

Instead of using the annual Valdai forum to explain Russia to international experts and journalists, President Putin made it a platform for expressing and spreading his worldview. Russia is criticizing the current global leadership model and the US for being irresponsible with its global power. ...

Lula as Political Coordinator
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2014

Former president Lula met with PT senators on Thursday, November 6, to discuss the post-electoral agenda, playing the part of the political coordinator for President Dilma’s second term.It was his second intervention this week. On Tuesday, he came to Brasília for a six-hour talk with President Di...

Minimum wage increase: 15%
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Nov 2014

On November 3, President Nicolas Maduro decreed a 15 percent increase in the minimum wage effective December 1, 2014, within the range we predicted. He also raised the basis for calculating the food bonus to 75 percent of the Tax Unit (UT) from 50 percent, and announced an adjustment in the publi...

A Battered Image
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryIndicators published in October continued to offer mixed signals about the direction of the Mexican economy. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for August showed only a 1.3% activity increase y/y, down from 2.3% between May and July. Both industrial and service sector growth slowed. Th...

The Global Savings Constraint
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 05 Nov 2014

Special points to highlight in this issue:China, and probably Japan, exist in a “neo-Fisherian” world in which, contrary to conventional thinking, lower interest rates and a depreciating currency are disinflationary, not inflationary. In economies in which most lending goes into production and mo...

Taming the Deficit
PANAMA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Though growth is slowing from its powerful 2012 peak of 10.8%, we are optimistic for 2014-2017, and project GDP CAGR at 6.5% (on the heels of 8.4% growth in 2013). The main reason for the slowdown is a fall in exports and fixed capital formation, as massive public investment and...

Minimum Wage Increase
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Nov 2014

President Maduro will announce a minimum wage increase to enter into effect shortly. This will be the second consecutive year with three minimum wage increases. The government has not commented on the amount of the planned increase. We believe the raise will be between 10 and 18 percent. On the l...

Political Insights: Week of November 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2014

Back from vacation, President Dilma Rousseff may announce Guido Mantega’s replacement at the Ministry of Finance. In the Senate, two important bills are on the voting agenda: the validation of fiscal benefits granted by States, and changes in the index for state and municipal debt with the Union....

The Fiscal Disaster of President Rousseff’s First Term
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The word “disaster” to describe the Rousseff government’s fiscal policy is no exaggeration. Primary spending has risen continuously alongside abuse of tax relief measures, resulting in a primary surplus totally insufficient to assure the government’s solvency, whether evaluat...

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