GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The big surprise in the minutes of the last COPOM meeting was the claim that there are “conditions, over the horizon relevant to monetary policy, for the public sector balance sheet to shift to the neutral zone.” This is especially strange after the recent statements by COPOM members of concern o...

Inflation and Growth: Where to?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Inflation in July was near zero, but this does not represent a trend reversal. The 12-month forward-looking expectations continue to rise, at more than 6% a year; the 12-month inflation of non-tradables is still growing above the upper limit of the target interval; and even thou...

Gross Reserves Fell to 5% in August

UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013

Gross foreign reserves declined $1.1 billion (4.7% m/m) in August down to $21.65 billion or 2.4 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on September 6th.It is the lowest level of gross foreign reserves over the last seven years. Still in 2006 when Ukraine had reserves near...

Mexico's Fiscal Reform and Economic Package for 2014: Back to Deficit Financing

MEXICO · In Brief · 09 Sep 2013

The government announced today a very significant fiscal package for 2014, as well as an ambitious fiscal reform. In essence, both proposals are oriented to increase public sector revenues in order to augment spending in four distinct areas, two traditional and two new ones. The former include mo...

Weekly Tracker: September 8-14

TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Obama is not guaranteed to receive the go-ahead for Syria from the House.An airstrike on Assad’s assets will degrade his capacity to execute the war and give the rebels the upper hand. Yet, the threat of Shia Axis taking revenge on Turkey can’t be dismissed. Ankara is on the ver...

Minor Rotations

CIS POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2013

The Ministry of Economic Development, the Central Bank and the Presidential Administration are currently engaged in a process of widespread top management rotation. New heads of agencies are bringing in their former employees, thereby significantly influencing the work of agencies as a whole. Alt...

One Step Closer to Compensation

VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Sep 2013

After almost six years, the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) issued a ruling in the case ConocoPhillips vs. the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (ICSID Case No. ARB/07/30) on the expropriation of ConocoPhillips’ stake in Petrozuata, Hamaca and Corocoro. The rulin...

Ground Prepped for Soft Landing?

INDONESIA · Report · 05 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The Indonesian economy has shown signs of overheating over the past few months. The Consumer Price Index has risen significantly, given higher domestic fuel prices, the flawed trading system and Ramadan festivities. We’re seeing further economic pressures in the form of a con...

Mexico’s State of the Union: 120 days to go

MEXICO · In Brief · 05 Sep 2013

On Monday, President Pena Nieto gave his State of the Union address before a very small and select audience at the presidential residence of Los Pinos. He chose a smaller venue because since last week, Mexico City has been taken over by the dissident group of teachers who have been protesting aga...

Monetary Policy Report Reinforces Previous Messages

CHILE · Report · 05 Sep 2013

In the Monetary Policy Report presented yesterday to Congress, the Central Bank reinforced the message that it has been providing over the past months. In particular, the Central Bank indicated that if the recent slowdown in GDP growth in the context of a weaker external impulse consolidates, the...

Investment Opportunities in Venezuela in Oil and Gas

VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Sep 2013

The Key Energy Opportunities in Venezuela versus other Emerging Market Countries The Venezuelan government has realized the need to increase oil and gas output as oil markets have moved to a not-so-rosy outlook and prices are stable, with a downside risk. Geopolitical risks only provide brief res...

Latest Inflation Slips to 2.1%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2013

Lower food, housing and utility price rises contributed to the decline in inflation to 2.1 % in August, below consensus forecast of 2.4%. Muted price pressures can also be seen in a benign core inflation of 1.9%. With year to date inflation averaging 2.8%, below the low end of the central bank’s...

Policy Environment Shifting For The Better

INDIA · Report · 04 Sep 2013

In recent months, a series of special reports have sketched the failures of economic policy formulation including at the Ministry of Finance and RBI. These failures have been particularly disappointing given that when P. Chidambaram returned to MoF, a sharp increase in competence was expected. Wi...

President's Popularity Crumbles

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

Gallup released its most recent opinion poll and President Santos' popularity fell from 46% to 21%. Even though the poll was carried out last week when protests and strikes had reached a climax and before the President took bold moves to quell unjustified violence, his political future is riding ...

Increased Risks and a Depreciating Exchange Rate

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2013

Executive Summary In response to the 2008 crisis, many countries abandoned the precepts of prudence and adopted highly expansionary fiscal policies along with a strong dose of monetary accommodation. This brought higher inflation and current account deficits, the latter of which became too large ...