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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Midyear Brief
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2013

Dialogue with the private sector is President Maduro’s most important public policy initiative so far, seeking to identify and resolve the most critical obstacles to local production. Hostility has given way to a rather relaxed exchange of views. The short list of urgent matters includes access t...

Political Weakness and Economic Mismanagement
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The perspectives for the Brazilian economy have taken a turn for the worse. The most optimistic projections for 2013 are for GDP growth below 2.5% (though still above 2%); inflation near (or slightly above) 6%; and the SELIC rate at 9.5% or 10%. The picture is further worsened b...

Construction and Public Policy
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Last week officials released readings of how consumers and producers perceive the performance of the economy and of how their respective finances or businesses are evolving. The Consumer Confidence Index for June recorded a 2.4% softening of sentiment compared to the same month ...

State Elections: Everyone Wins While Losing Something
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Last Sunday, 14 states went to the polls. They elected one new governor in Baja California, and renewed their municipal governments and local Congress. After a much disputed race, the PAN seems to have won the governorship of Baja California for the fifth time in a row. Although...

Week of July 9: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2013

Two major economic events will take place this week: the announcement of budget cuts which, according to Finance Minister Guido Mantega, will be below R$ 15 billion; and the Central Bank’s decision regarding the basic interest rate. In Congress, the plebiscite on political reform remains on the a...

Sicad 2.0 on the Horizon
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Jul 2013

The new Sicad system will begin operating in a matter of days. Key issues, such as theallocation mechanism, amounts to be auctioned, criteria defining qualified buyers, and of course, the exchange rate, are still undefined and in the hands of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. Hopefull...

Caution over Investment Projections
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jul 2013

The only good news in the disappointing GDP results for the first quarter was the 4.6% increase in gross fixed capital formation. The question at this point is whether investments will continue on this recovery path, leading the investment rate to rise above 20% of GDP in 2013. The industrial pro...

Weekly Tracker: July 7-13
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The Egyptian coup could complicate things further for AKP, as party leaders openly side with Moslem Brotherhood.The counter-revolution is also making AKP more paranoid about Gezi Park. Large crowds descended on Taksim Square on Saturday, who met with startling police brutality. ...

Gross reserves declined to $23.1 billion in June
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jul 2013

Gross foreign reserves declined $1.4 billion (5.7% m/m) in June down to $23.1 billion or 2.55 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on July 5th.It has been already for the second month in row gross reserves have been falling.  This tendency was the direct consequence of Q...

Muddling Along
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 05 Jul 2013

Executive Summary We forecast economic activity in South Africa to remain hesitant over the medium- term with inflation adjusted gross domestic product growth recording 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. Although we expect the issue of job creation to feature prominently in political ...

Feeling Like Dorothy Again
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryHeightened domestic political risks, combined with signals from the Fed that QE ‘tapering’ may soon begin, changed the macro environment quite significantly since our last Quarterly (of April 10, 2013). On the political front, we now anticipate the risk premiums increasing steadi...

Game of Courts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2013

The recent presidential announcement of the unification of Russia’s Supreme Court and the Supreme Court of Arbitration of Russia, which contradicts a previously approved strategy, may be an indication of Putin’s work on the Prime Minister’s retirement plan. Dmitry Medvedev was the architect of Ru...

Ankara’s regional policy in tatters
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jul 2013

AKP was quick to condemn the Egypt coup, and even seem to encourage the supporters of Moslem Brotherhood to resist. This may be understandable from a moral perspective, but is very likely to result in the loss of Egypt’s alliance to AKP. The coup is major blow to the Sunni Axis. According to stat...

Budget revenues down 8.1% y/y in June
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jul 2013

Budget revenues declined 8.1% y/y in June, according to Treasury report on July 3rd.  That was already third month in row state collections have been sliding.  For the first six months of the year state revenues went down 0.3% y/y (against 4.9% y/y 2013 revenues plan).  Such trend confirms our vi...

Food, transportation drive inflation higher
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2013

Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 0.8% in June, taking the 12-month rate to 8.3%, from 6.5% in May. Producer prices also rose markedly to 5.2%, y/y, from 2.2% in May.Core inflation (I-index) remained high, but unchanged at 5.6%, y/y (Table 1; Graph 1). The sharp increase in CPI ...

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