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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Latest poll numbers show Gálvez failing to expand support even as the incumbent camp weakens
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The latest GEA-ISA survey of registered voters contained some encouraging news for the opposition coalition. Support for Morena dropped by as much as 8 points between March and April. President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen 12 points since September to one of his lowest readings in o...

Clearer picture, with high risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The majority opposition now has a unity candidate, but the path to the presidential election is strewn with obstacles, the final outcome uncertain. On April 19, just one day before the deadline, the Democratic Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, or PUD) with the support of all ...

Polish farmers end blockade of Ukrainian produce
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2024

On April 29 the protesters removed barriers at the last checkpoint they had blocked. The others were removed in April 2024. Goods are moving freely both to and from Ukraine. Since February 2024 Polish farmers had prevented Ukrainian food from entering the country, saying it undercut them. An agre...

The holiday this week reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, the Senate may vote on the Perse bill, and the CCJ may vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for land vehicles
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The federal holiday on Wednesday, May 1, reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, but there are still important events on the agenda. The payroll tax relief issue continues to resonate. This week, the Senate may vote on a bill that reformulates incentives for the events sector (PL nº 1,026/202...

Election Monitor III: National elections – growing uncertainty amid a rising desire for change
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

South Africa celebrated the 30th anniversary of the new dispensation on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The mood of the nation could hardly be more different than it was on April 27, 1994, when Nelson Mandela declared the triumph of the ANC’s decades of struggle against apartheid. The predominant major...

OFZ: Russian debt puzzle still not assembled
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The yields in the Russian debt market continue to grow. Last week’s tightening of the CBR's signalling regarding the further trajectory of the key rate may even stimulate this trend. On one hand, even the existing yields look very attractive to long-term institutional investors. On the other hand...

Playing For Time
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2024

Growth was likely positive in Q1, and should finish the year at around 3% with risks tilted to the upside, assuming a flat second half or that a major contraction will be avoided. We see growth slowing further in 2025, however. • Inflation, broadly in line with the consensus, should peak at ju...

S&P affirmed Hungary's BBB-/Stable sovereign debt rating
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2024

This happened on Friday, April 26, the first preset review date for any of the top three rating agencies, as regards their sovereign ratings for Hungary. Hungary has a split rating (see chart), S&P keeping the government's debt rating in the lowest investment-grade category since January 2023, wh...

Russia and Ukraine exchange children
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2024

On April 24 the Russian Children's Rights Commissioner said that Russia would return 29 children to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving Russia back 19 children. Maria Lvova Belova, who announced the deal, was indicted by the International Criminal Court for child abduction in 2023.  Qatar brok...

José Raúl Mulino could run next week…the Supreme Court hinted yesterday
PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

On April 25, just 10 days before the elections, Supreme Court Justice Olmedo Arrocha, who is handling the case of the unconstitutionality lawsuit against the Electoral Tribunal (TE) decision that allowed José Raúl Mulino to run as a presidential candidate, issued a public statement. In this state...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues $5bn bonds, transport drives UAE Q3 GDP, Saudi hosts Iranian pilgrims, Oman & UAE sign investment deals
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia hosted the first formal Iranian Umrah pilgrimage in nine years. * PIF is investing in Saudi Telecom’s tower assets and merging them with its own. * Abu Dhabi issued $5bn in 5 to 30-year bonds, the first in th...

NBU cuts prime rate to 13.5% following approval of US support package
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 1.0 ppt to 13.5%, effective April 26. This decision was facilitated by a steady slowdown in consumer inflation (+0.5% m/m or +3.2% y/y in March), a $9.3 billion foreign currency inflow in March, and the recently approved $61 billion aid package from the US....

Kazakhstan macro: the budget still lacks tax revenue as the tenge remains strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 1Q24, and it appears that the general trends are the same as in 2023—the tax revenue flow remains well behind the plan, while transfers to the republican budget from the National Fund are well ahead of it. The latter factor i...

The Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform outlined the details of the regulation of Tax Reform, Justice Zanin suspended sections of the law that extended the payroll tax exemption, and Wednesday, May 1, is a holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Yesterday, the Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform, Bernardo Appy, gave a long interview to explain the details of the bill submitted by the government to the National Congress on the regulation of Tax Reform. In other news, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin responded to the ...

Webinar Replay - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2024

What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic and political outlook.

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