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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

February industry and retail sales show some further consolidation, though no breakthrough at all by consumer demand
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Apr 2024

KSH published February industrial output and retail sales data this morning. Industry grew by 3.5% mom, 0.1% yoy, recovering from -1.1% mom in January and a 13-month series of substantially negative data in year-on-year terms. At this moment, it is not known how the recovery was contributed to by...

Philippines: Disappointing inflation numbers
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Apr 2024

As we write this In Brief, the Philippine Statistics Authority is about to announce the inflation rate for March 2024 tomorrow at 9 am. We expect a higher inflation rate than January’s 2.8% and February’s 3.4% at slightly below 4.0%. This, to us, is a foregone conclusion because very little progr...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Apr 2024

Mar 20 National Financial Regulator: The watchdog will conduct an asset quality review of the 11 biggest banks in Kazakhstan this year. Mar 21 Government: Kazakhstan and Qatar signed an agreement for long-term strategic cooperation to develop projects in priority sectors (the estimated amount is ...

Economic performance remained decent in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2024

Following a previous publication on the performance of the Russian industry in 2M24 (up by 6.6% y-o-y and by 8.5% y-o-y in February alone), Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew in 2M24 by 7.8% y-o-y. In Februa...

The AGU filed a request to extend the conciliation deadline in the Eletrobras case, Lula may issue an MP that could result in a 3% reduction in electricity bills, and the government will file a case against Pacheco’s decision on the payroll tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2024

Yesterday, the Federal Attorney General's Office (AGU) filed a request in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to extend the deadline for conciliation with Eletrobras in the lawsuit that calls for greater government participation in the company. Also yesterday, the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexan...

Healthcare reform sunk in Congress, but reform drive continues at full steam
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

In spite of resorting to all the tricks in the known universe, the government could not stop the sinking of the healthcare reform in Congress, after 8 Senators in the 7th Committee presented a motion to sink it two weeks ago (Ponencia de Arichivo). After many days and weeks in which the governmen...

Kyrgyzstan introduces foreign agents' law
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

On April 3 President Japarov signed the act. The law requires many entities to register as foreign agents. The law is based on a similar one in Russia. The law will apply to many NGOs that receive funding from other countries. Those that are involved in what are deemed to be political activities ...

Peru: Prime Minister in Congress
PERU · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzén and his Cabinet were in Congress this morning requesting the rejection to the no confidence vote. In his speech said that his priorities were the economic recovery and internal security. Although President Boluarte is under scrutiny on an apparent failure to decla...

March inflation: no major surprise
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2024

Consumer prices rose by 3.2%, m/m, in March, somewhat below consensus (likely on the back of somewhat softer food inflation), with the 12-month CPI inflation nevertheless increasing further to 68.5%, from 67.1% in February. Domestic-PPI posted a 3.3% increase, which led to another relatively sign...

The Ministry of Finance was surprised by Pacheco’s decision on the payroll tax exemption, the House scheduled a meeting on April 16 to discuss this issue, and Tebet said she will include an annex in the PLDO on spending review
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2024

The Ministry of Finance was surprised by Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco’s (PSD-MG) decision to remove the resumption of the payroll tax for municipalities from provisional measure (MP) 1202. The decision has an estimated cost of R$10 billion and clearly has an electoral motivation. The Lower Ho...

Important fiscal data from the Easter Bunny's basket
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024 · 1 response

Coloured eggs, a standard part of the Easter decoration of houses and gardens in most of Central Europe, is brought by the Easter Bunny in her basket, as far as the story presented to little children is concerned. This time around, the bunny also brought about some fresh fiscal data for Easter, a...

Pacheco published a decision on the payroll tax exemption, Haddad discusses the 2025 surplus target, and the Minister of Mines and Energy presents proposals on energy tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2024

Yesterday, a decision by the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), was published in an extra edition of the Federal Official Gazette, maintaining the payroll tax exemption for cities with a population of up to approximately 150,000. In a recent interview, the Minister of Finance, Fer...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2024

* Putin re-elected as president. * Terrorist attack in Moscow kills 140. * Russia pounds Ukrainian cities but gains little ground. * Ukraine is critically short of shells. * Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan open trade link.

Growth mixed, but tied to U.S. trends.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Apr 2024

Guatemala´s economy returned to its long-term potential growth rate in 2023. Despite the political tensions over presidential transition, there were no major disruptions in internal production and income. Real GDP growth reached 3.5% y/y, down from 4.1% a year before. Economic expansion can be ex...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Apr 2024

OVERVIEW The decline of Lula’s approval ratings, as indicated by various polling agencies in the past few weeks, has made his position in negotiations with Congress (where he has never had a majority) even more vulnerable. The bargaining is becoming more bitter, with additional pressures for b...

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