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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of July 9: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2013

Two major economic events will take place this week: the announcement of budget cuts which, according to Finance Minister Guido Mantega, will be below R$ 15 billion; and the Central Bank’s decision regarding the basic interest rate. In Congress, the plebiscite on political reform remains on the a...

Sicad 2.0 on the Horizon
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Jul 2013

The new Sicad system will begin operating in a matter of days. Key issues, such as theallocation mechanism, amounts to be auctioned, criteria defining qualified buyers, and of course, the exchange rate, are still undefined and in the hands of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. Hopefull...

Caution over Investment Projections
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jul 2013

The only good news in the disappointing GDP results for the first quarter was the 4.6% increase in gross fixed capital formation. The question at this point is whether investments will continue on this recovery path, leading the investment rate to rise above 20% of GDP in 2013. The industrial pro...

Weekly Tracker: July 7-13
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The Egyptian coup could complicate things further for AKP, as party leaders openly side with Moslem Brotherhood.The counter-revolution is also making AKP more paranoid about Gezi Park. Large crowds descended on Taksim Square on Saturday, who met with startling police brutality. ...

Gross reserves declined to $23.1 billion in June
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jul 2013

Gross foreign reserves declined $1.4 billion (5.7% m/m) in June down to $23.1 billion or 2.55 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on July 5th.It has been already for the second month in row gross reserves have been falling.  This tendency was the direct consequence of Q...

Muddling Along
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 05 Jul 2013

Executive Summary We forecast economic activity in South Africa to remain hesitant over the medium- term with inflation adjusted gross domestic product growth recording 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. Although we expect the issue of job creation to feature prominently in political ...

Feeling Like Dorothy Again
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryHeightened domestic political risks, combined with signals from the Fed that QE ‘tapering’ may soon begin, changed the macro environment quite significantly since our last Quarterly (of April 10, 2013). On the political front, we now anticipate the risk premiums increasing steadi...

Game of Courts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2013

The recent presidential announcement of the unification of Russia’s Supreme Court and the Supreme Court of Arbitration of Russia, which contradicts a previously approved strategy, may be an indication of Putin’s work on the Prime Minister’s retirement plan. Dmitry Medvedev was the architect of Ru...

Ankara’s regional policy in tatters
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jul 2013

AKP was quick to condemn the Egypt coup, and even seem to encourage the supporters of Moslem Brotherhood to resist. This may be understandable from a moral perspective, but is very likely to result in the loss of Egypt’s alliance to AKP. The coup is major blow to the Sunni Axis. According to stat...

Budget revenues down 8.1% y/y in June
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jul 2013

Budget revenues declined 8.1% y/y in June, according to Treasury report on July 3rd.  That was already third month in row state collections have been sliding.  For the first six months of the year state revenues went down 0.3% y/y (against 4.9% y/y 2013 revenues plan).  Such trend confirms our vi...

Food, transportation drive inflation higher
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2013

Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 0.8% in June, taking the 12-month rate to 8.3%, from 6.5% in May. Producer prices also rose markedly to 5.2%, y/y, from 2.2% in May.Core inflation (I-index) remained high, but unchanged at 5.6%, y/y (Table 1; Graph 1). The sharp increase in CPI ...

Industrial Production: Investment Scenario Worsens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jul 2013

In May industrial output fell by 2.0%, more than removing the 1.8% growth the previous month and continuing the recent pattern of huge volatility in the monthly growth rates, as can be seen in Graph 1. This volatility is less pronounced in the three-month moving average, calculated on the seasona...

2Q Economic Overview
MEXICO · Report · 02 Jul 2013

Economic Panorama Background When the GDP results for the first quarter of the year showed a mere 0.8% expansion, expectations for the year were quickly scaled back. The Ministry of Finance lowered its full-year estimate from 3.5% to 3.1%, and most analysts made similar adjustments to their own f...

Cosmo talks about the Jewish conspiracy
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2013

It is amazing how eager is the AKP government is to shoot itself in the foot. State Minister Besir Atalay suggested yesterday that the Gezi Parki is the work of Jewish Diaspora. As efforts to uncover the international conspiracy behind Gezi Parki accelerate, reports indicate that BRSA, Ergenekon ...

Central Bank: Overoptimistic Forecasts for the Exchange Rate and Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2013

The quality of any forecast depends on the quality of the underlying assumptions. In the Inflation Report for June, one of the Central Bank's forecasts is that inflation in 2014 will decline to 5.4%. This result is based on the assumption that the exchange rate will remain relatively stable at R$...

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