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Upcoming webinar - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 23 Apr 2024

What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? When will the next elections take place? Please join us for our live webinar discussing the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic...

Business and consumer expectations mixed for the first quarter of 2024
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Abstracting from the results of the BSP surveys of both business and consumer respondents, Q1 2024 is likely to sustain positive economic growth that may not necessarily approximate the official target of 6-7% at least for Q1 2024 due to the dominant downside risks to economic growth including th...

Politics: A sweeping scandal involving the Judiciary and the Executive tarnishes the entire system
MEXICO · Report · 22 Apr 2024

The Supreme Court announced on April 12 that it had ordered the Council of the Federal Judiciary to launch an investigation into an anonymous complaint of widespread acts of corruption by officials of the Judicial Branch during Arturo Zaldívar's time as Chief Justice of the Court (January 2019 to...

The Lula government's "outdated software" and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2024

The government announced a measure focused on credit and is expected to submit the Tax Reform regulations to Congress. The House may vote on a new Perse. Congress analyzes presidential vetoes. This week's Talking Points: * The Lula government's "outdated software".  * A feasibl...

When a Risk Becomes (Almost) Certainty
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2024

In the statement following its last meeting, the COPOM changed its forward guidance, conditional on confirmation of its baseline scenario, to only one more cut of 50 basis points at the meeting in May, without any indications regarding subsequent meetings. Back then, in the minutes of that meetin...

Lula launches the Believe Credit Program, the government should finally submit the bills that regulate Tax Reform, and the House may vote on the bill on the Perse program
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2024

President Lula launches the new government program for the credit area today, the Believe Program (Programa Acredite). There will be lines of credit for individual microentrepreneurs and microenterprises. The government should finally submit the bills that regulate Tax Reform to the National Cong...

Why inflating debt away isn’t an option for China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Apr 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * First quarter results were better than expected in terms of the volume of economic activity delivered, but there has been no improvement in the composition of growth. In spite of continued promises by Beijing to deliver demand-side growth, Chinese ...

Expected victory amidst an energy crisis
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

Ecudorians voted yesterday on the public referendum and consult for 11 questions, 9 of which are related to security and corruption issues, one to international arbitration for public contracts and one for labor hiring by the hour – these two questions are currently prohibited under the constitut...

Two signs of sanity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

On April 20, after four weeks of agonizing negotiations, the opposition agreed on a single candidate supported by all the Unitary Platform (PUD) parties one day before the deadline for modifying endorsements to be visible on the ballot. The candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia, registered by PUD...

Inflation expected to accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Apr 2024

Inflation in March (0.6% m/m 2.7% y/y, following 2.5% last month) was slightly above expectations of 0.5% on average. Core inflation inched up to 2.3% y/y from 2.2% last month but this is due to higher taxation on cigarettes, which contributed 0.17% to the CPI. Core excluding government measure r...

Armenia hands over villages to Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

On April 19 Armenia ceded the land to its neighbor as part of a border demarcation agreement. The four villages were part of Azerbaijan in the Soviet era. This has caused protests in Armenia where some people believe the government is being feeble and cowardly. Some say Prime Minister Pashinyan i...

Many questions, no answers
TURKEY · Report · 21 Apr 2024

While President Erdogan promised change after the defeat of the AKP-MHP alliance, so far, he has neither taken any steps, nor has he provided any hints about new policies, save in economics. Pro-AKP press claims he is biding his time, but the first essay in the politics section concludes the Pres...

Russia slams US aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024

On April 20 the US House of Representatives passed a military aid package for the 3 countries. This includes USD 61 billion for Ukraine. The aid packages needs to pass the Senate which is almost certain to happen. Biden has vowed sign the bill as soon as it is passed. The bill has been delayed si...

GL 44a: Case-by-case flexibility, with opacity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024

General License 44a (GL 44a), dated April 17, 2024, requires that oil and gas activities not expressly subject to General Licenses 41 (Chevron) and 8m (Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford) be granted special licenses by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Co...

GULF WEEKLY: Floods batter Gulf, Israel-Iran clash may be over, Microsoft invests $1.5bn in G42, Kuwait has a new PM
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Iran and Israel exchanged carefully calibrated attacks and have hopefully come to a pause. *Oil prices briefly spiked today on the Israeli attack but settled after more details emerged. *The US vetoed Palestinian UN member...

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