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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, the Executive and Legislative branches continue to negotiate on the IOF tax hike, and a new poll showed that Tarcísio would easily be re-elected as SP governor in 2026
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian products starting August 1—a drastic increase that followed harsh criticism of President Lula’s domestic and foreign policies. Trump stated that if Brazil retaliates against the U.S., he will add the ret...

Israel's fiscal deficit holds at 5.0% of GDP in June, but risks remain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jul 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 16.4 billion ($4.888 billion) in June, with the trailing 12-month deficit unchanged at 5.0% of GDP. In September 2024, the budget deficit had peaked at 8.5% of GDP. Tax revenues in June were disappointing, falling 6% in real terms and at co...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jul 2025

Jun 25 Parliament: The Mazhilis (lower house) of the Parliament has finally approved the new Tax Code as amended by the Senate. The new Code introduces a progressive personal income tax scale: a salary of up to a specially introduced “monthly indicator” equal to 8500 per year (currently about KZT...

The voting agenda in the Lower House has been set for this week and next, Lira said he may present his report on the income tax bill this week, and Minister Tebet said the court-ordered payments issue must be addressed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2025

The Lower House has set the voting agenda for this week and next, before Congress recesses. One of the items is Bill 5122/2023, which addresses the renegotiation of rural producers' debts. Regarding the income tax bill, the rapporteur, Lower House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said he may presen...

Trump defended Bolsonaro on social media, the Senate may vote on the bill that legalizes gambling, casinos and bingo today, and the Workers’ Party (PT) elected Edinho Silva as its new national president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2025

Yesterday, United States President Donald Trump used his social media platforms to defend former President Jair Bolsonaro. His statement will have no impact on the trial of the former president. Bolsonaro is expected to be convicted by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in the second half of the yea...

The National Fund decreases amid lack of revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported that assets of the National Fund shrank from KZT36.7 trln ($66.2 bln) as of January 1, 2025, to KZT32.8 trln ($63.4 bln) as of July 1. Tax revenues, i.e., the bulk of incoming payments, amounted to KZT1.8 trln in 1H25, i.e., 37.0% of the annual target (nearly KZT4...

Federal budget deficit could exceed the amended target amid disinflation and excessively strong ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025

The recent thinking of the Russian government suggests the 2025 federal budget deficit of R3.8 trln, which is wider than the initial target of R1.2 trln. The reason behind this change is shrinking oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues as the ruble remains too strong (at about USD/RUB 79) for some time, with...

Headline inflation up temporarily on fuel prices, core inflation markedly down in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025

The headline rate of CPI-inflation in June has been reported this morning at 0.1% mom, 4.6% yoy, the latter up from 4.4% yoy in May. This uptick was entirely due to fuel prices, which rose by 0.5% mom. Here the point is that fuel prices actually fell by 3.4% mom in June 2024, and the difference b...

The rate decision – July 7, 2025: no cut, hawkish tone, but 50bp expected no later than Q4 2025
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jul 2025 · 1 response

The central bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on July 7th, for the twelfth consecutive meeting. The decision was largely in line with expectations, even though a growing number of economists and market participants had anticipated a signal toward monetary easing.De...

Rising tide
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jul 2025

The appreciation of the Brazilian real in 2025 has been accompanied by a similar movement in several other currencies, consistent with the global weakening of the U.S. dollar. When analyzing the real’s behavior against the basket of currencies that make up the Dollar Index, we observe only a mode...

Tarcísio gains strength for 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2025

Negotiations continue between representatives of the three branches of government on the IOF issue. Deputy Arthur Lira, rapporteur of the bill on Income Tax, will present his report. The Joint Budget Committee may vote on its preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO). This week's...

Short-term boost, long-term bets: Panama Canal projects and the economic outlook
PANAMA · Report · 07 Jul 2025

Panama’s economy posted strong 5.2% GDP growth in Q1 2025, driven primarily by the recovery of the Panama Canal and the expansion of Copa Airlines. The transportation sector alone contributed 56% of total growth, reflecting a rebound in toll revenues (+42.4% YoY) following the 2024 drought and th...

Economics: Activity figures published in June point to stagnation for the rest of 2025
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2025

Following May’s report showing that Q1 GDP edged up only around half a point in the first quarter, this past month’s aggregate supply and demand results filled out the picture as it showed a 25% drop in public investment, private investment turning sharply negative and consumption weakening consi...

Politics: Recently approved bills raise the specter of weakened civil liberties
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2025

The priority of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has been to consolidate her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s "Plan C", of obtaining and using an automatic two-thirds majority in congress to be able to pass legislation as well as amend the constitution in order to permanently...

The fiscal deficit is within the corridor
INDONESIA · Report · 07 Jul 2025

Indonesian Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati reported to the Indonesian parliament on the country's fiscal performance, as well as the fiscal outlook for the year 2025. In the midst of skepticism about Indonesia's fiscal policy under the new president, Prabowo Subianto, she reported that ...

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