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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ground Prepped for Soft Landing?
INDONESIA · Report · 05 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The Indonesian economy has shown signs of overheating over the past few months. The Consumer Price Index has risen significantly, given higher domestic fuel prices, the flawed trading system and Ramadan festivities. We’re seeing further economic pressures in the form of a con...

Mexico’s State of the Union: 120 days to go
MEXICO · In Brief · 05 Sep 2013

On Monday, President Pena Nieto gave his State of the Union address before a very small and select audience at the presidential residence of Los Pinos. He chose a smaller venue because since last week, Mexico City has been taken over by the dissident group of teachers who have been protesting aga...

Monetary Policy Report Reinforces Previous Messages
CHILE · Report · 05 Sep 2013

In the Monetary Policy Report presented yesterday to Congress, the Central Bank reinforced the message that it has been providing over the past months. In particular, the Central Bank indicated that if the recent slowdown in GDP growth in the context of a weaker external impulse consolidates, the...

Investment Opportunities in Venezuela in Oil and Gas
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Sep 2013

The Key Energy Opportunities in Venezuela versus other Emerging Market Countries The Venezuelan government has realized the need to increase oil and gas output as oil markets have moved to a not-so-rosy outlook and prices are stable, with a downside risk. Geopolitical risks only provide brief res...

Latest Inflation Slips to 2.1%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2013

Lower food, housing and utility price rises contributed to the decline in inflation to 2.1 % in August, below consensus forecast of 2.4%. Muted price pressures can also be seen in a benign core inflation of 1.9%.  With year to date inflation averaging 2.8%, below the low end of the central bank’s...

Dominican Rep: Backtracking in Monetary Policy after DOP Depreciation Accelerated
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 04 Sep 2013

Last week, the Central Bank announced several measures aimed at containing the depreciation of the DOP. In August DOP depreciated 1.8% against the USD, the highest monthly rate registered so far in 2013.The measures included:1. The increase of the monetary policy rate in 200 bp (from 4.25% to 6.2...

Policy Environment Shifting For The Better
INDIA · Report · 04 Sep 2013

In recent months, a series of special reports have sketched the failures of economic policy formulation including at the Ministry of Finance and RBI. These failures have been particularly disappointing given that when P. Chidambaram returned to MoF, a sharp increase in competence was expected. Wi...

President's Popularity Crumbles
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

Gallup released its most recent opinion poll and President Santos' popularity fell from 46% to 21%. Even though the poll was carried out last week when protests and strikes had reached a climax and before the President took bold moves to quell unjustified violence, his political future is riding ...

Increased Risks and a Depreciating Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2013

Executive Summary In response to the 2008 crisis, many countries abandoned the precepts of prudence and adopted highly expansionary fiscal policies along with a strong dose of monetary accommodation. This brought higher inflation and current account deficits, the latter of which became too large ...

A Recovery Yet To Come
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2013

Economic Panorama The most significant piece of economic news in August was the weakness of GDP growth during the second quarter. The authorities reported that the economy expanded a mere 1.5% compared to the same April through June period of the previous year. Officials had projected that GDP ha...

Industrial Production: Still on a Rollercoaster
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2013

Industrial production fell 2.0% in August, giving back nearly all the gain in July (2.1%) and continuing the extremely volatile pattern of recent months (Graph 1). The decline in the month was so steep that it brought the quarterly moving average into negative territory (-0.7%) for the first time...

15 Crucial Days
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Over the past week dissident members of the National Teachers’ Union, gathered in what is known as the “Coordinadora” or CNTE, have grown increasingly audacious in their efforts to derail the last of the education reform bills pending before Congress. After having succeeded last...

Headline Down, Core UP
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2013

Today’s consumer price data came in exactly in line with the market consensus, shrinking modestly by 0.1%, on the back of a retreat in food prices, also as expected.The 12-month rate hence dropped to 8.2% from 8.9% a month earlier. The producer price inflation also eased to 6.4% from 6.6% in July...

GDP in the Second Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2013

Brazil’s GDP growth in the second quarter exceeded all projections. At 1.5% (6.0% in annual terms – Graph 1), it was the strongest since the first quarter of 2010, changing the growth estimates for 2013. Among the various surprising results is the growth in the service sector, about which there i...

Political Insights: Week of September 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2013

The people should return to the streets on September 7 to protest in the main cities throughout the country.Regarding the economy, we highlight the release of inflation data for August. Electoral reform, outsourcing and the Budget Guidelines Law are on the congressional agenda. Main topics on the...

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