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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Outlook mixed, with traditional politicians contenders
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Costa Rica´s economy presented a mixed balance during H1. On the positive side, the country displayed good momentum in real sector accounts, inflation dropped faster than expected and international reserves increased. On the negative side, economic activity in the definitive regime remained low, ...

Controversies, disappointments -- and surprises
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jun 2023

Costa Rica continues to struggle with political confrontation. Giving the fraught political conditions analyzed in our May report, controversial presidential proposals are not likely to make their way easily through Congress. Amid this climate, the government submitted five bills on fiscal matter...

El Salvador Brief: New actions to favor re-election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado President Nayib Bukele proposed a reduction in the number of municipalities in El Salvador. The bill was approved on Wednesday, June 14th. Starting March 2024, the country will have 44 local governments compared to 262 nowadays. The name of the municipalities...

A mixed growth outlook – and an upstart presidential challenger
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 May 2023

El Salvador’s economic activity continues under the adverse influence of external conditions, as well as a lack of domestic drivers to stoke growth, including restricted fiscal room due to severe financing restrictions. The monthly index of economic activity, with figures to February 2023, has sl...

Few political surprises, as economies flag
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2023

El Salvador’s economic performance in 2023 and 2024 is confronting challenges from both abroad and at home. Global economic slowdown, distortions due to the armed conflict in Ukraine, persistent and defiant inflation and strong monetary policy measures taken by many central banks are important co...

Guatemala confronts a less dynamic year.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2023

Guatemala´s economy faced several challenges in 2022, such as high domestic inflation, less favorable external conditions and high interest rates. The economy nonetheless recorded strong growth, good external accounts and stability in fiscal figures and in the financial sector. Guatemala´s econom...

Next challenge: tackling structural problems.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Costa Rica is expected to maintain discipline in public finances under the fiscal rule implemented in the 2018 legislation, although shielding the fiscal advances to reinforce medium and long-term sustainability is important. Public policies are a next step in addressing several lagged social and...

Political and economic prospects mixed.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2023

Costa Rica’s exchange rate in 2022 experienced one of the most volatile periods of its history. After a currency depreciation of 9% during H1, the colon appreciated 14.3% from July to the end of 2022. Daily volatility rose significantly, recording a standard deviation of ₡20 compared to ₡10 a yea...

Bearing up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2022

Costa Rica’s economic performance has been affected by negative external conditions, but results in some areas looking better than expected. Short-term economic activity indicators suggest that real growth this year could be around 4% y/y, vs. the low 3.3% of our July revised forecast. The nature...

Growth moderating, with inflation trend mixed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2022

El Salvador’s economic evolution continues along the lines we forecast in our outlook revision of September 2022. Inflation is still high, but slowly descending. Economic activity estimated by the Central Bank’s monthly index has decelerated from the highs of H1 2021, and stopped falling in H2 20...

Growth and inflation trends mixed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2022

The Costa Rican economy is evolving better than expected, despite the adverse external conditions. Recent reversal signals in the downward trend of economic activity during H1 2022 suggest that real GDP growth could be higher than projected. The main driver relates to FTZ exports, including a new...

Growth outlook mixed, amid fiscal woes
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2022

El Salvador’s post-pandemic economic rebound was robust in 2021, but was truncated by adverse international factors, mainly the global economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as persisting distortions on global supply chains. Consequently, economic growth this and next year ...

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador announced running for reelection
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022

by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Thursday his intention to run again for president in 2024, despite the country’s Constitution prohibiting serving consecutive presidential terms. The announcement was made on public television and social media a...

Facing weaker global growth and confidence
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Aug 2022

Guatemala’s economy will grow steadily in the next 18 months, but at a slower pace than in the previous forecast. International conditions have changed drastically since March 2022. There are no signs of recession or stagnation. We do not expect economic activity to overperform in coming months. ...

Costa Rica: Revision of the Monetary Policy Report for 2022-2023
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2022

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the third revision of the Monetary Policy Report for 2022-2023 on July 29th. Based on indicators of the first semester, the Bank maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2022 but revised downward the figure for 2023. Real GDP will expand 3.4% y/y in 2022, dri...

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