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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

COVID resurges, even as finances stabilize
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2021

El Salvador’s economy shows remarkable dynamism toward overcoming the economic effects of the pandemic, in H1 2022 or even earlier. In politics, understanding where El Salvador is headed continues to be a hard task. President Nayib Bukele’s political discourse normally highlights success in confr...

El Salvador: On bitcoins and presidential re-election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021 · 1 response

On bitcoinsOn Tuesday El Salvador adopted bitcoins as a legal tender currency. Daily transactions such as buying groceries or paying taxes can now be made using bitcoins through a digital wallet called “Chivo” (local slang for "cool"). President Bukele confirmed that on Monday the government purc...

Looking up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Aug 2021

The Guatemalan economy will recover more quickly than that of other Central American countries, with a more favorable outlook for the next 18 months. The evolution of the international economy, the improvement in domestic expectations and a rational handling of economic policy will be crucial to ...

Costa Rica: Mid-term revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2021-2022
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the mid-term revision of the macroeconomic program for 2021-2022 on July 30th. Based on H1 indicators, with a better external outlook and improvement on vaccine process, the Bank concluded that economic activity will be higher than previous estimates in 202...

El Salvador was downgraded by Moody’s
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Aug 2021

The rating agency Moody’s downgraded El Salvador’s bonds from Ba3 to Caa1 on July 30th, 2021, turning the country’s debt into the category of “junk bonds”. At the same time, the outlook was rated “negative”. The same grade was also granted by Moody’s in April 2017, when the government failed to p...

Recovery under uncertainty
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jul 2021

The Costa Rican economy showed better than expected results in H1. Faster recovery of the country’s main trading partners helped improve exports. H1 fiscal figures were also favorable. The next 18 months will be crucial. The first review of the SBA agreement with the IMF will be in October 2021, ...

On Recovery, Bitcoin and Immigration
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2021

Costa Rica shows signs of recovery attributable to the fast pace of growth in developed economies, despite the intensification of COVID-19 mainly during April and May, and a partial reversal in June. In fact, mobility restrictions were re-introduced, and continued in June. Some acceleration of va...

Slowdown, and clashes over corruption
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2021 · 1 response

The number of daily COVID-19 cases in Costa Rica has been rising since April. The government announced tighter restrictions to limit the spread of the virus, and to address a possible saturation of the public health system. These actions will definitely slow economic activity in May-June, and aff...

EL SALVADOR: Authoritarianism on its way?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 05 May 2021

The removal of all five Constitutional Court members, as well as the Attorney General, was of the most striking decisions taken by the new legislators in their first day of Congress, on May 1, 2020. The constant disagreements of President Nayib Bukele with those officials, particularly strong reg...

Edging forward
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Apr 2021

Opacity in political conditions in El Salvador continued during April, the last month of the current Congress. What happens from May on, when the official party will be dominant in Congress, remains to be seen. The ample majority obtained by the president’s New Ideas party and its allies in the F...

A critical year
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Mar 2021

Guatemala performed better than its regional partners in 2020. Though the COVID-19 pandemic affected the global economy, its intensity differed from country to country. In Guatemala, temporary restrictions on economic activity were compensated for by positive external results in merchandise expor...

Salvadorans empower President Nayib Bukele
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Mar 2021

As we have been reporting, legislative and other elections were held on February 28th. As expected, the result was widely favorable to New Ideas, the party of President Nayib Bukele. Reports assure that with about 90% of the votes counted, New Ideas won 66% of the total vote. That percentage, if ...

COSTA RICA: Turning point ahead?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2021

Costa Rica will be struggling to grow, and to clean up its public finances, this year and next. The outlook for economic activity in 2021 will mark the end of the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also could mark a turning point for the long-standing fiscal deficit, if the Extended...

Costa Rica Macroeconomic Program for 2020-2021
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Feb 2021

On January 29th, Central Bank of Costa Rica released the macroeconomic program for 2021-2022. The main indicators estimated by the Bank, as well as those defined as monetary policy targets, are displayed in Table 1, taken from the Central Bank’s publication.

Central America and Caribbean Outlook 2021 - Post-pandemic progress - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Dominican Republic and Panama
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2021

Our live webinar features Francisco de Paula Gutierrez, Felix Delgado, Magdalena Lizardo and Marco Fernandez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Esteban Tamayo, Citi Research Economist for Colombia, Peru and the...

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