NEWS FLASH

WEBINAR REPLAY: TURKEY 2022 OUTLOOK...

Country Insights

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Politics: In 2022 AMLO looks to consolidate his 4T and ensure it endures beyond 2024
MEXICO - Report 10 Jan 2022
With the 2024 elections just two years away, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is increasingly focused on ensuring his legacy through consolidating his Fourth Transformation (4T) project. The next battle is over the presidential recall referendum, pushed not by voters discontented with AMLO’s...

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Economics: The Mexican economy faces key challenges in 2022
MEXICO - Report 10 Jan 2022
The most important economic challenges facing the Mexican economy in 2022 are rising inflation and sluggish growth. These will be coupled with the weakening of public finances and the uncertainty fueled by how the government’s energy policy will end up being defined. The first challenge is inf...

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Politics: Opposition mired in internal crises and low approval, despite poor AMLO results
MEXICO - Report 20 Dec 2021
Mexico is experiencing several economic and political negative effects as a result of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s failed policies. Yet the two main opposition parties, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN) are bogged down in multifaceted crise...

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Economics: Looking ahead to 2022 and beyond
MEXICO - Report 20 Dec 2021
In the last issue for 2021, in place of our usual monthly review we are providing an overview of the most significant features of the economic outlook for 2022 as it currently stands Despite the extent to which the Mexican economy rebounded in late 2020 and the first half of the current year, we...

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Politics: Presidential popularity high but uneven, with considerable voter support for the INE
MEXICO - Report 13 Dec 2021
Despite most opinion polls showing that President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador enjoys broad majority support, with the average giving him a 65% approval rating, GEA-ISA estimates put the figure at 54%, with voter disapproval at 40%. This is largely unchanged since September. In the most recent ele...

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Economics: Rising inflation and mounting risks heading into 2022
MEXICO - Report 13 Dec 2021
Consumer inflation continued to accelerate in November by climbing 7.37%, the highest reading in more than 20 years as a series of risks pose the threat of a price spiral in the year to come. Clearly this is part of a much broader global phenomenon, but there are specific risks in Mexico that rai...

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Politics: Balance sheet and political outlook in AMLO’s third year in office
MEXICO - Report 06 Dec 2021
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has just completed half of his six-year term. While his popularity has actually increased in the past few weeks and his supporters are more enthusiastic than ever, the results of his administration, despite almost daily glowing reports in the President’s dail...

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Economics: Imports and FDI stats cast doubt on recovery prospects clouded by internal policies and the global context
MEXICO - Report 06 Dec 2021
In previous issues of the Economic Outlook, we have analyzed the behavior of exports as an essential factor in economic growth perspectives, especially considering that in the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 it was the only sector in the whole economy with any dynamism. To complemen...

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Economics: November data shows further slowing as the country faces new inflation pressures
MEXICO - Report 29 Nov 2021
In recent months indicators have been reflecting a slowing of economic activity relative to the first half of this year, a scenario we had long incorporated into our GDP estimate for full-year 2021. The news published in November only added to that picture. In many respects economic activity c...

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Politics: Progressive militarization – a risk to democracy
MEXICO - Report 29 Nov 2021
There has been growing concern in Mexico over the increasing role of the military in the country’s political life. While in recent decades the military has been called on to play a role in the fight against drug trafficking, historically the army has been politically neutral and its functions lim...

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AMLO decides to strengthen his power over Banxico
MEXICO - In Brief 24 Nov 2021
Facts: The President withdrew former Ministry of Finance's nomination to preside over Banxico’s Board and today he proposed Victoria Martínez, the current undersecretary at the Ministry of Finance in charge of the spending division, for the post. No doubt she will be approved by the Senate before...

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Economics: Tourism and related branches extend gradual recovery but face new hurdles
MEXICO - Report 22 Nov 2021
The most tourism-intense regions of the country and the economic sectors most dependent on the travel and hospitality business continue to mend, but at such a sluggish pace that remains far below pre-pandemic levels of activity. For roughly a decade, tourism served as a major catalyst of construc...

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Politics: Decision to ram through the 2022 spending budget sets the stage for future conflict
MEXICO - Report 22 Nov 2021
The Chamber of Deputies approved November 14, the 2022 federal expenditure budget with 273 votes in favor and 213 opposed. The governing camp introduced only two changes to the administration’s original proposal, which now projects slightly more than 7 trillion pesos in spending, but rejected abs...

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Economics: Pemex and CFE results combine minor gains, continuing risks, and no energy transition
MEXICO - Report 15 Nov 2021
The country’s national oil and electric power companies released their third quarter results just as delegates were starting to assemble in Glasgow for COP26. Positive takeaways from Pemex included an extension of the gradual uptrend in crude production alongside a smattering of new well discover...

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Politics: Violence and public insecurity pose risks of crisis in tourist areas
MEXICO - Report 15 Nov 2021
Crime-fueled violence continues to plague Mexico, with around 3,000 killings per month. With the growth in organized crime and drug cartels, their presence along with the associated violence and killings, has also intensified and spread to different parts of the country. Examples of this progress...