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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures
MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening servicesAccording to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point ...

Economics: Consumer confidence extends its slide as employment weakens; a further erosion of consumption is possible
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Mexico’s consumer confidence index deteriorated in its latest reading, prompting some analysts to note that it foreshadows a greater deceleration of private consumption for the coming months. It is important to consider that the index allows anticipating the behavior of consumption in certain co...

Politics: The National Development Plan—where is Mexico headed?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Mexico’s immediate future will largely be determined by the National Development Plan (NDP). The 2025-2030 version of the plan was recently approved by Morena and its allies in Congress. The plan had sparked optimism in some business circles given the perception—and hope—that President Claudia Sh...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In the first quarter of 2025, the trade balance recorded a high surplus due to an increase in non-automotive manufacturing exports and a reduction in consumer and capital imports
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Apr 2025

In January-March 2025, the trade balance recorded a surplus of 1,097 USD million which compares to a 2,706 USD million deficit in the same period of the previous year. This result meant that the negative trade balance observed in January was offset by surpluses in February and March. CHART 1 Trad...

Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February
MEXICO · In Brief · 25 Apr 2025

The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February, with a 1.0% monthly increase using seasonally adjusted figures The Global Economic Activity Index (IGAE) continued to show weak annual growth in February 2025 (0.5%), after expanding by 0.2% in January ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Inflation rebounds, Banxico should think twice about relaxing monetary policy in May
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Apr 2025

Annual inflation in the first half of April rebounded due to increases in both core and non-core inflation, erasing the progress made earlier in the year… ●Consumer price inflation in the first half of April rose to an annual rate of 3.96%, approaching December 2024's level of 3.99%.●The core inf...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, sales services stagnated compared to the previous month, though they continued to post a strong year-over-year growth.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, revenues (sales) of private non-financial service providers increased by 5.8% compared to the same month last year but remained unchanged from January (seasonally adjusted figures). This suggests that service sales continue to be an important driver of consumption and economic a...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, retail sales continued to grow, though at a slower pace compared to January. Meanwhile, wholesale sales kept declining.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, retail sales maintained the growth observed in the previous month, albeit at a slower pace: They rose 1.7% year-over-year (compared to 2.7% in January) and 0.2% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted figures). As a result, the first two months of 2025 saw a cumulative annual incr...

Economics: Current US tariff schedule significantly impacts Mexican exports and the broader economy
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2025

President Trump’s recent announcement of a 90 day pause on his “reciprocal” tariffs left many countries with a 10% across-the-board rate for that period. Mexico was not included in the list of reciprocal tariffs, a development celebrated by Mexican authorities as an achievement. However, there ar...

Politics: Sheinbaum unveils a new and better defined Plan Mexico. But is it up to the challenges ahead?
MEXICO · Report · 14 Apr 2025

In response to the slowdown in Mexican economic growth coupled with the ups and downs of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which have been an emotional roller coaster for business interests and society as a whole, President Claudia Sheinbaum has re-launched and strengthened Plan Mexico, her ambitiou...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Industrial Production Shows Moderate Recovery but Remains Weak in Early 2025
MEXICO · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

In February 2025 (seasonally adjusted figures), industrial production expanded by 2.5% year-over-year and 0.4% compared to the previous month. This marked a recovery from January, when output had contracted sharply. However, due to the weak start to the year, the cumulative growth for the first t...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Banxico minutes reveal confidence on reducing inflation and interest rates
MEXICO · In Brief · 10 Apr 2025

Banxico is confident that inflation will continue to decline, downplays risks, and signals that the interest rate cut will persist according to the minutes from March 27 meeting The Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) unanimously decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Consumer inflation is not improving and producer prices risk a spillover on consumer prices
MEXICO · In Brief · 09 Apr 2025

March inflation edged up slightly on non-core pressures, while core inflation's six-month stagnation raises doubts about monetary easing March consumer inflation rose slightly to 3.8% year-over-year, compared to 3.77% in February. The increase was driven by the non-core component, which reached 4...

Economics: The General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2025-2026 retain the optimism of previous years
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2025 · 1 response

As has become customary, the government’s latest policy pre-criteria are marked by excess optimism. The Pre-General Economic Policy Criteria text the Ministry of Finance sent Congress last week, which ushers in the budgeting process of Federal Public Administration entities, include revised macro...

Politics: Radical teachers' struggle puts Sheinbaum government on the spot
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2025

While President Claudia Sheinbaum has been largely successful in curbing the impact of social protests, the radical dissident teachers’ movement is giving her a run for her money. The official National Teachers Union (SNTE), the largest labor union in Mexico and Latin America, despite its past af...

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