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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Indicators published in February point to a weak economic recovery for 2026, with inflation above Banxico's target and deteriorating public finances
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2026

Economic indicators published in February suggest that Mexico will experience a moderate recovery in 2026 following the stagnation observed in 2025, although this rebound is shaping up to be weak and constrained by multiple obstacles. Private consumption shows signs of gradual recovery, driven la...

Politics: Electoral Reform proposed by Sheinbaum represents a democratic setback
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2026 · 1 response

On March 4, 2026, President Claudia Sheinbaum submitted her constitutional electoral reform initiative to the Chamber of Deputies, representing the final outstanding component of "Plan C" announced by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in February 2024. Following two previous failed attempts—a rejected ...

Economics: US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs—implications for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2026

The recent imposition of 15% across-the-board tariffs by President Trump in response to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating prior specific tariffs does not affect Mexico as products entering under the USMCA remain exempt, as they previously were from reciprocal tariffs. Consequently, Mex...

Politics: The death of “El Mencho” reshapes the Mexican security landscape
MEXICO · Report · 02 Mar 2026

On Sunday, February 22, 2026, the Mexican Army carried out a well-planned operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco (130 km from Guadalajara), with support from US intelligence (JITF-CC), to capture Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias "El Mencho," leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The kingpin...

Results of the military operation to arrest Nemesio Oseguera, "El Mencho," Leader of the CJNG
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Initial notes on its implications On Sunday, February 22, Mexican armed forces carried out an operation to apprehend Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho,” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)—Mexico’s most powerful and far-reaching criminal organization, heavily engaged...

Politics: Corruption perception index remains at a low level as scandals continue to emerge
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2026

In 2025, Mexico scored 27 points (out of 100) on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 141st out of 182 countries. This represents a minimal improvement of one point compared to 2024 but maintains the negative trend seen since 2014 and positions the country among the ...

Economics: Sheinbaum's new investment plan lacks the foundations to achieve sustainable economic growth
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2026

In early February, President Claudia Sheinbaum presented the Investment Plan for Development with Well-being, which would involve a total amount of $5.6 trillion MX pesos (close to $325.4 billion USD) to be executed between 2026 and 2030. Of that amount, in 2026 $722 billion MX pesos in additiona...

Economics: Annual core inflation rose in January; it will most likely remain above 4% in 2026
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Consumer inflation stood at 3.79% annually in January 2026, 10 basis points above December 2025 (3.69%) and very similar to the 2025 average, in a clear sign that it is not on a downward trend. The annual increase in prices in January was caused by the core component (as has been the case in rece...

Politics: Mexico's growing political vulnerabilities
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2026

In recent years, various domestic policies implemented initially by the López Obrador administration and subsequently maintained by Claudia Sheinbaum's government have exacerbated Mexico's vulnerabilities, deepening the historical power asymmetry with the United States. This has facilitated acqui...

Economics: 2025 Year-end public finance figures signal risks for 2026 and beyond
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The full-year 2025 figures show a fiscal deficit exceeding the official target by MXN $285 billion, closing at MXN $1.7 trillion, which is equivalent to 4.8% of GDP, down from 5.9% of GDP in 2024. This imbalance means the public sector as a whole increased its financial obligations by a non-trivi...

Politics: Recent changes in key political positions imply a new Sheinbaum-AMLO power balance
MEXICO · Report · 09 Feb 2026

Recent changes—first at the Financial Intelligence Unit in early August of last year, then at the Attorney General's Office in late November, and most recently last week on Sunday, February 1st, in the coordination of the Morena's Senate Parliamentary Group—empower President Claudia Sheinbaum vis...

Economics: Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4% YoY, resulting in weak full-year growth of 0.5%
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2026

According to figures from INEGI, GDP for Q4 2025 increased by 1.6% YoY seasonally adjusted, showing a rebound compared to the previous quarter, when it fell -0.2%. This performance resulted in a total increase of 0.5% for 2025. The secondary sector experienced weak growth in Q4 (0.3%) but is i...

Politics: Some of Mexico's important vulnerabilities vis-à-vis the Trump Administration
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2026

Facing the review and possible renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026, Mexico has some shielding against extreme tariff measures due to its deep integration with North American value chains, but its negotiating capacity is severely undermined by a set of internal economic and structural vulnerabiliti...

Economics: December and January economic activity figures indicate a slight upturn following the stagnation of 2025
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2026

The economic activity figures released at the end of December and so far in January indicate that the stagnation of the first three quarters of the year has begun to transition to a very slight upturn in the last two months. This aligns with our growth expectation for 2026 of 1.1% (vs. 0.3% estim...

Politics: Foreign policy and national security omissions of the Mexican government in a critical context
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2026

Mexico's development horizon, based on economic integration with the United States, entered a crisis starting with Trump's first presidency (2016-2020). His administration questioned NAFTA and migration, coming to perceive Mexico not as a reliable partner, but as a threat on multiple fronts, with...

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