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Politics: Scandal puts massive and new forms of fuel theft back in focus
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2025

A new chapter has opened in the saga of Mexico’s history with massive fuel theft. The issue had been before the public for quite some time, when fuel theft, known as huachicol, was considered to be limited to siphoning off massive quantities of gasoline at Pemex pipelines around the country. But ...

Economics: A first glance at the 2026 Economic Package sent to Congress on September 8
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2025 · 1 response

On Monday, September 8, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) sent the 2026 Economic Package to Congress. It includes the government’s forecasts for the country’s macroeconomic outlook, as well as proposals of revenue, expenditures, and the public sector fiscal deficit, which includes ...

Economics: Employment stagnates in the second quarter and July 2025
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2025 · 1 response

According to the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE), for the second quarter of 2025 and July, the growth in job numbers indicates a clear slowdown that began last year, consistent with the overall weakening of the economy. The employed population experienced a weak annual increase, ...

Politics: Mexico pleased with the results of the Sheinbaum-Rubio meeting, but underlying differences remain
MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The much awaited meeting between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio was finally held in Mexico City on September 3. It was the highest-level meeting between the two countries since Donald Trump took office seven months ago. The meeting was held in shadow o...

Economics: The data published in August reflects an economy that remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2025

Economic data published in August indicate that while the economy improved its performance in the second quarter and in July, it remains weak. Industrial activity continues to show a slight decline, and services, while experiencing relatively high growth, are seeing some sectors affected by lower...

Politics: Congress resumed on September 1, with no big surprises, as continuity is maintained with AMLO’s project
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2025

The second year of the current congressional period of sessions began on September 1 with no big surprises. Morena legislators provided a sneak preview of its agenda. Apart from the 2026 economic package (revenue law and expenditure budget for 2026), there are no new significant issues on the go...

Economics: Considerable reduction in multidimensional poverty in 2024 due to an increase in labor income
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2025

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) published the results of the 2024 Multidimensional Poverty measurement. This is the first time Inegi has been in charge of the report, following the dissolution of Coneval, which had been responsible for calculating multidimensional pover...

Politics: Highly questioned Judicial Reform validation—prelude to a more opaque election model?
MEXICO · Report · 25 Aug 2025

The June 2 Judicial Election was questioned from the word go. It was criticized as a logistical nightmare with voters having to decide between hundreds of unknown candidates, with severely restricted limits on campaigning, and perhaps most importantly, the danger that the public electing the judi...

Economics: A new strategic plan and a T-bill backed financing mechanism are the latest efforts to rescue an inwardly focused Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2025

A new financing mechanism for Pemex was announced at the end of July. Although it involves taking on more debt, those liabilities are to be recorded off-balance sheet and could be implemented once again in the near future. It was unveiled not long before Pemex announced its "Strategic Plan 2025-2...

Politics: Unethical practices and luxury lifestyles spark crisis in Morena, calling into question its very identity
MEXICO · Report · 18 Aug 2025

A large part of the appeal of the Fourth Transformation (4T) and Claudia Sheinbaum (and before her, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador) has been its repeated message that it alone has taken the moral high ground in a country whose political system is riddled with corruption and assorted ills, with the r...

Economics: ENIGH 2024—higher labor income and government transfers; less targeting and effectiveness of social spending
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2025

The results of the 2024 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGH) show significant increases in current household income across all deciles, due to growth in labor income and government transfers. As we have noted in previous reports, both the increase in the minimum wage and t...

Politics: Upcoming electoral reform—another significant blow to Mexican democracy
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2025

The final step in AMLO's "Plan C", aimed at guaranteeing the ruling party the 2/3 qualified majority needed to modify the Constitution and thereby avoid the legislative or judicial branch's nullifying the 4T’s policies, is about to be concretized in the form of the Electoral Reform. On August 3 ...

Economics: The latest public finance results are favorable but insufficient to halt debt growth as Pemex continues to deteriorate financially
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025

The evolution of public finances in the first half of 2025 and Pemex’s recently released operating results for the second quarter of 2025 point to a complex outlook for macroeconomic stability and the Mexican economy’s medium-term prospects. Government finances continued to deliver favorable resu...

Politics: Scandal puts ties between politicians and organized crime under the spotlight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025

A major scandal has erupted in Mexico with far-reaching short, medium, and long-term consequences. On July 12, General Miguel Ángel Martínez revealed that there is an outstanding arrest warrant for Hernán Bermúdez Requena, former Secretary of Public Security of Tabasco. He is charged with crimina...

Politics: Violence and homicides—how are they measured and how much progress has been made?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025

Public security is the number one issue for most Mexicans, and addressing, improving and resolving this issue is of key importance for the current presidential administration. In fact, it is the policy question in which President Sheinbaum has most clearly—although not explicitly—differentiated h...