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Politics: The outgoing Congress - what it achieved and what to expect
MEXICO - Report 10 May 2021
The first round of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s three years of changes to the country’s laws and constitution ended on April 30, as the outgoing Chamber of Deputies assuredly will never meet again, and the full Congress convenes on September 1. The initial package of reforms was far-re...

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Economics: Continuing weakness at Pemex and CFE could further squeeze public finance
MEXICO - Report 10 May 2021
Roughly a month ago Pemex unfurled a revised Business Plan for the coming years that significantly scaled back production targets except when it comes to its forced-yet-troubled march to make Mexico self-sufficient in the refining of petroleum products. Strikingly, the text and other management s...

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Economics: Soft internal demand complicates recovery prospects
MEXICO - Report 03 May 2021
As of February, industrial activity continued to contract within the same -3.0 to -3.4% range it has been averaging since the beginning of the fourth quarter. The crucial manufacturing industry declined at a similar pace despite hopes that a resurgent US industrial sector could help lift activity...

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Politics: The days of the Morena super majority may be numbered
MEXICO - Report 03 May 2021
This past week President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Morena ran into a series of legal setbacks with serious implications for the future of his Fourth Transformation project. Perhaps the most important were the INE and TEPJF decisions to close loopholes that the incumbent Morena party exploi...

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Economics: The “new” Pemex Business Plan
MEXICO - Report 26 Apr 2021
Last April 6, Pemex presented its Business Plan for 2021–2025, an update of the one that was published in mid-2019. And while CEO Octavio Romero assures that its central purpose is to save the company and allow it to reassume its leadership role, what is still sorely lacking is any coherent appro...

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Politics: AMLO’s moves to tighten institutional grip
MEXICO - Report 26 Apr 2021 1 response
Just as the Senate was preparing to vote on President López Obrador’s judicial reform package April 15, a lawmaker quietly slipped in a clearly unconstitutional transitory article that would change the composition of the highest judicial bodies in the land. It would extend by two years the terms ...

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Politics: AMLO intensifies the offensive against the INE
MEXICO - Report 19 Apr 2021
In this, the second part of our coverage of the confrontation between President López Obrador and his party on one side, and the country’s electoral authorities on the other, we look at how much the governing camp has raised the stakes in this dispute and is likely to continue to do so well after...

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Economics: Rising inflation complicates policy choices
MEXICO - Report 19 Apr 2021
Minutes from Banco de México’s most recent monetary policy review (March 25) show most board members agree the rate pause they unanimously approved at that meeting does not signal an end to the easing cycle dating back to August 2019 that slashed 8.25 percent off the reference rate. They may get ...

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Politics: Major offensive against election officials
MEXICO - Report 12 Apr 2021
With the elections two months away, the president and his party have begun a steady barrage of attacks and threats against the National Electoral Institute (INE), the organizer and arbitrator of the electoral process. The offensive began in earnest after the institute voted on March 25 to rule sc...

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Economics: External sector recovery with persistent internal market weakness
MEXICO - Report 12 Apr 2021
In recent weeks institutions and analysts have been upwardly revising their Mexico GDP projections for 2021, with most now roughly or exactly in line with the 4.5% growth estimate that we have maintained since January. These upward revisions are explained by the extent to which the US economy is ...

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Economics: Strong demand abroad but a weak homefront
MEXICO - Report 29 Mar 2021
Economic results published during March tended to confirm the growing consensus that Mexico’s 2021 economic prospects are looking slightly better, with much of that improvement a reflection of the brighter US outlook that can be expected to spill over on multiple fronts, ranging from increased de...

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Politics: Voter preferences remain unclear
MEXICO - Report 29 Mar 2021
This week candidates can begin campaigning for the June 6 elections at a time when the general context has been trending against the current administration and the partial electoral coalition it is taking into the midterm contests for the lower chamber of Congress. And just in time for the occasi...

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Economics: A brighter 2021 foreign trade outlook but risks remain
MEXICO - Report 22 Mar 2021
Institutions and analysts continue to raise their 2021 economic projections for Mexico on the back of expectations of stronger growth globally. The improved Mexican forecasts reflect expectations of how much stronger US industrial activity, which we expect will expand 4.7% this year, and economic...

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Politics: Rule of law in further jeopardy
MEXICO - Report 22 Mar 2021
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Electricity Industry Law (LIE), recently approved by Congress, has been temporarily suspended. The new legislation, backed by Morena and its allies and rejected by the opposition, reverses the previous administration’s energy policies, which were based on a...

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Economics: Credit to the private sector starts its slide
MEXICO - Report 16 Mar 2021
All components of finance to the private sector have begun to show signs of weakening, just as had been expected. While commercial banking solvency indexes were still suggesting late last fall that the system is relatively well capitalized on average, some banks were in barely satisfactory ranges...