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Economic Monthly report
MEXICO · Report · 31 Jul 2017

The economic data released in July produced further evidence of continuing growth in key parts of the Mexican economy. Spending sustained its expansion in April as Mexico’s index of private consumption rose an annual 5.0% according to seasonally adjusted data: imported goods acted as the main dri...

Politics: Fragile Presidential Nomination Process
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2017

Most major parties are facing a tough, uphill battle to come up with a winning presidential candidate at a time when a growing slice of the electorate is fed up with parties, and such voters are more inclined to cast their ballots for the candidates who appear to have the most appealing personali...

Economics: The Pros and Cons of SAR at 20
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2017

The country’s the Retirement Savings System (SAR), which is based on personalized savings accounts, turned 20 this month and it has quite a number of accomplishments worth celebrating. SAR system advantages include the way its individual accounts afford greater transparency in resource availabili...

Politics: A System that Remains Broken
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2017

The handling by the national electoral authority of the most recent elections, especially those of Coahuila and the State of Mexico, provides ample evidence of the gravest problems plaguing electoral democracy in Mexico: ignoring campaign spending limits, the willingness of all political parties ...

Renegotiation of NAFTA: Positive Signs, but Caution is Recommended
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2017

The “Summary of Objectives for the NAFTA Renegotiation” published by the U.S Government was in general well received by Mexican editorialists as well as financial markets. The document confirms the US goal to “maintain existing reciprocal duty-free market access… for goods and services”. Here ...

Economics: State Debt Monitor Falls Short
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2017

The Ministry of Finance has published its “Alert System” of state government debt, as well as the indicators on which its new color coded alerts are based, which in this inaugural edition corresponded to readings of subnational government finance for year-end 2016. The system ranked one state ...

Politics: Hurdles to a Broad Opposition Front
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2017

The national leaderships of the PAN and PRD continue to press for a broad opposition front for next year’s elections after seeing, yet again, that the PRI’s electoral victories in June were made possible by opposition parties' competing against one another in crucial gubernatorial contests. P...

Politics: Public Distrust Ahead of 2018 Vote
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017

As we continue to analyze the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey on governability and electoral preferences, we see little very little movement in citizen perceptions of the country's situation, the evaluation of President Peña Nieto's administration, or the mood of the country. R...

Economics: Yield Curve Becomes Inverted
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017

Mexico’s interest rate yield curves in recent weeks have reached levels that are not consistent with the expected evolution of macroeconomic variables. This week’s Economic Outlook analyzes the government securities yield curve. Last week’s National Consumer Price Index report revealed that p...

Signs of Economic Slowing Despite Strong GDP. Signs of a Competitive Presidential Race in 2018
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2017

Aggregate supply and demand for the first quarter grew much better than expected (4.2%) as the awaited slowing of private consumption failed to materialize, and a boost in petroleum exports allowed the trade balance to contribute half of a percentage point to overall growth. The leading index of ...

Economics: Slowing Trend Likely to Continue
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Data released last week on aggregate supply and demand through the first quarter of 2017 showed a 4.2% annual increase that was both better than expected and the most pronounced rise of the previous five quarters. In keeping with the trends of previous quarters, private consumption was the compon...

Politics: Violence Rebounds to 2011 Highs
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Last week brought more bad news on the security front as the May report on crime revealed the highest absolute number of murder investigations opened in any month since the current national system of official crime statistics was launched 20 years ago. In fact, there were more such murder cases t...

Economics: The Financing Tap is Tightening
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2017

The issuance of credit to the non bank private sector slowed during the first quarter of 2017 relative to the pace of previous years. Both the business and consumer credit segments continue to grow at better than 5%, but that is well below the levels of past years, especially 2016, when growth wa...

Politics: Elections and Democracy in Question
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2017

Opposition parties and candidates are mounting legal challenges to the official vote counts in two of the June 4 gubernatorial elections (Coahuila and the State of Mexico), in a pattern that has become all too predictable in Mexico for decades, in which there is often extensive documentation of w...

Politics: Everyone wins, and everyone loses
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2017

Although the PRI managed to pull off two close yet crucial victories in gubernatorial races at the beginning of the month, its share of the vote was halved in both states, and its barefaced abuse of public resources, apparent ballot-stuffing and theft of ballot boxes, as well as heavy-handed mana...