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Headwinds Kicking Up
MEXICO · Report · 04 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s non-oil exports remained strong in 2014, according to the latest data, with private investment and consumption recovering faster, and public investment continuing to fall. In H2 the economy regained its “natural” growth rate, a trajectory it could sustain through 2015. ...

Economics: Weaker Economic Census Results
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The National Statistics Office (Inegi) recently released the preliminary version of the results from its 2014 Economic Census. The census, conducted in 2014, collected statistical data information on the activities of business establishments during 2013. The census, which is con...

Politics: Parties Fiddle as 2015 Campaign Looms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A major threat to the credibility of the June elections consists of the degree to which the parties act as if they are utterly oblivious to the extent to which they are held in disrepute and proceed as if all were business as usual, preoccupied by infighting and the seemingly et...

Economics: Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The international oil market has continued to experience an excess supply of crude, and except in the United States, weak demand through the first weeks of 2015. As a result, the prices of all varieties of crude have been plummeting. As we have mentioned in previous issues of We...

Politics: Rocky Start to 2015 Campaign
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Last week produced numerous reminders of the internal party divisions plaguing the opposition. The center-right PAN rebuffed the request of Margarita Zavala to run for Congress, prompting the wife of ex Mexican President Felipe Calderón and former member of Congress to announce ...

Third Quarter Aggregate Demand
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Aggregate supply and demand data at the third quarter of 2014 describe a scenario in which Mexico’s non petroleum exports remain strong, private investment and consumption are recovering at a slightly more solid pace, and public spending remains stalled as continuing growth in p...

First Half Holds Clues to Governability
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The two events that will dominate political life in Mexico during the first half of the year are this June’s midterm congressional elections and simultaneous local races in 17 states, and the spring session of Congress with its huge backlog of crucial legislation. At a time when...

Glimmers of Strength
MEXICO · Report · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The Mexican economy has been showing signs of firming: In November officials reported that GDP had rebounded to its “natural rate” of growth, of nearly 3%. But there are surprise headwinds, too. Industrial production in October was up 2.1% y/y, an expansion driven by manufacturi...

Public Perception of Political Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s release of GEA-ISA’s most recent quarterly study, Mexico Politics, Society and Change: Governability Scenarios and the accompanying nationwide door-to-door survey of registered voters offers us the opportunity to look at the country’s multifaceted political and insti...

Oil’s Toll on the Mexican Economy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Executive Summary One of the subjects most widely discussed in recent weeks is the abrupt plunge in oil prices and the multiple effects it will entail for both producing and consuming countries. Prices have fallen by an average of 35% to 40% from their highs of the past decade (2011), and the sim...

Scenarios in Crisis of Justice/Security
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryAmid the dual-faceted political crisis Mexico is experiencing – an institutional crisis and a crisis of leadership and legitimacy – and under mounting pressure to produce quick results, last week the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto cobbled together a series of disp...

Mixed Labor Market Outlook for Year
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2014

Executive Summary In this week’s Economic Panorama we analyze what the labor market data to date can tell us about broader economic trends, and how economic activity is likely to close the current year. We also delve into some of the reasons why robust growth in payroll employment has failed to t...

Q3 Growth a Bit Limp
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Q3 GDP grew 2.2% y/y, just as we estimated. Most analysts were disappointed by that, and lowered their expectations of the economy’s recovery prospects, though such pessimism suggests most were not paying close enough attention to the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE). In the wake of Aug...

GDP Firmed a Bit in Third Quarter
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Late last week the National Statistics Office (Inegi) released its report on third quarter GDP showing that the economy had grown 2.2% above levels of a year earlier. In response to the soft patch the Mexican economy experienced in August, when the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) grew ...

Corruption: The Pending Reform
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Last Tuesday the wife of President Enrique Peña Nieto, Angélica Rivera, released a statement via YouTube intended to dispel rumors of how she came by a home in Mexico City’s exclusive Lomas de Chapultepec neighborhood, which the media quickly dubbed the “White House” as much for...