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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics leads the headlines. The economy maintains a steady pace.
PANAMA · Report · 03 Nov 2015

Economic growth continues but at a slower pace, according to the Monthly Index Economic Activity (IMAE), which grew 3.8% in August and experienced a 4.0% increase during the first eight months of the year compared with 2014. Transportation, financial intermediation and construction are the sector...

Panama’s Tax Information Stance Amidst Pressure from the International Community
PANAMA · Report · 21 Oct 2015

Executive Summary In recent years, a new focus on transparency and exchange of information, efforts led by the G-20 and implemented and monitored by the OECD, has been in the forefront of the international agenda. Many countries and multilateral organizations are shifting their policies to move a...

A Mild Slowdown, the 2016 Budget and the Political Headlines
PANAMA · Report · 01 Oct 2015

As we expected, real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015 was 5.8% and 6.0% in the first semester. In H1 2015, the dynamic sectors of the economy included electricity, gas and water; social and private health services; and financial intermediation. Commerce, Transportation, and Construction ...

Restructuring Frameworks: Economics and Politics
PANAMA · Report · 18 Aug 2015

After covering an updated economic and fiscal outlook from last month, this report assesses the findings of the IMF mission to Panama and the observations and recommendations of its Executive Board. This report will also delve on three relevant issues: the continuity probe on former officials, th...

Elections for the President of the Legislative Assembly Unsettles Political Balance
PANAMA · Report · 09 Jul 2015

On July 1, the first-year anniversary of the Varela administration, elections for the new president of the National Assembly (Panama’s legislative branch) took place. The importance of the National Assembly’s Presidency resides in the fact that it sets the legislative agenda, budgets and commitme...

Will Political Turmoil Affect Economic Performance?
PANAMA · Forecast · 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The economy is running at a steady pace: we project a 5.9% GDP growth in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016. The political climate is the most worrisome in the two-and-a-half decades after the demise of the military dictatorship due to corruption scandals during the Martinelli administration...

Corruption Probes Overshadows Focus on Economic Performance
PANAMA · Report · 06 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Corruption probes continues to broaden: more than dozen former government officials private contractor have been investigated for overcharging, conspiracy and bidding manipulation, since the Varela administration began. According to some estimates, the cost of these frauds could...

Politics & The New Five-Year Economic and Fiscal Program
PANAMA · Report · 12 Feb 2015

Executive Summary On January 27, by unanimous decision, the nine judges of the CSJ agreed to look into the evidence regarding corruption acts attributed to Ricardo Martinelli and opened the process to investigate his presumed involvements in corruption practices of several million dollars in the ...

Corruption, Politics, And Economics: End Of The Year Subjects
PANAMA · Report · 26 Dec 2014

Eighteen weeks after assuming office, Juan Carlos Varela faces several key battles in three fronts: scandals of corruption in various cases by officials of the Martinelli administration, the political fragility of the Legislative alliance with the PRD and …alas! …the economic and budgetary condit...

Taming the Deficit
PANAMA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Though growth is slowing from its powerful 2012 peak of 10.8%, we are optimistic for 2014-2017, and project GDP CAGR at 6.5% (on the heels of 8.4% growth in 2013). The main reason for the slowdown is a fall in exports and fixed capital formation, as massive public investment and...

Panama is Now Officially a “Tax Haven” from Colombia’s Perspective
PANAMA · Report · 10 Oct 2014

On October 7, the Santos Administration included Panama in the list of “fiscal paradises” (in the company of Barbados, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar) because the Martinelli administration and now the Varela Government have not signed the exchange of information agreement between Colombia and Panama. Colo...

Gray Lists, Fiscal Weaknesses and Political Uncertainty: Martinelli’s Legacy and Varela’s Challenges
PANAMA · Report · 25 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Panama will be on the list of non-compliant countries of three different agencies before the end of the year: GAFI, OCDE and IOSCO. The economic and financial impact of being on these lists is important for reputational reasons and for the possible negative effect on external fi...

Economy Slowdown… And The New Administration Meets Fiscal Challenges
PANAMA · Report · 16 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Growth for the first quarter of 2014 was 5.8% YOY according to recent official data. In Q1 2014, the most dynamic sectors of the economy included fishing, construction, mining and quarrying, and transportation and communications. The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) for Ap...

Juan Carlos Varela Posts Unexpected Win
PANAMA · Report · 06 May 2014

Juan Carlos Varela, the leader of the rightist Panameñista Party in coalition with Partido Popular (former Christian Democrats) won the presidential election with 39.2% of the votes. José Domingo Arias of the ruling Party Cambio Democrático (CD) got 32% and Juan Carlos Navarro of the PRD received...

Revving Up
PANAMA · Forecast · 05 May 2014

Executive Summary Though growth is slowing from its powerful 2012 peak of 10.8%, we are optimistic for 2014-2016, and project GDP GAGR at 6.3% (on the heels of 8.4% growth in 2013). The main reason for the slowdown is a fall in exports, and in fixed capital formation, as massive public investment...

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