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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Panama is back in the gray list of GAFI: an expected result with unpredictable consequences
PANAMA · Report · 27 Jun 2019

During the FATF (Financial Action Task Force, GAFI in Spanish) plenary meeting last week in Orlando, Florida , the Republic of Panama was added again to the gray list of non-cooperating countries in matters related to money laundering and financial transparency, despite the efforts made by the Ad...

The new economic team is (almost) in place…facing a tight fiscal situation and a slow real activity
PANAMA · Report · 30 May 2019

Héctor Alexander, former Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF) from 2007-2009, and University of Chicago graduate, will be in charge again of this office, presumably until January when the MEF might split into two separate entities: MEF itself will likely transform into the Ministry of Treasury (...

High NFPS deficit in the first quarter of 2019: the challenges to Cortizo´s administration
PANAMA · In Brief · 13 May 2019

The net deficit of Q1 was $966 million: 1.4% of projected (by MEF) nominal GDP for the complete year, or around 5% of “adjusted” GDP for the quarter. This figure does not include payments in arrears to contractors (a figure that may be at least 600 million, according to private sources). The prim...

Cortizo wins by a small margin. Roux challenges the result. PRD is the strongest party in the Legislative Assembly.
PANAMA · In Brief · 06 May 2019

Laurentino “Nito” Cortizo won the Presidential election tonight by a slight margin, so small that the Cambio Democratico Party of Romulo Roux is challenging the results thus prolonging the official recognition of the results. Cortizo’s Partido Revolucionario Democrático, PRD (social-democratic un...

Will a new President and ally be enough to boost the economy?
PANAMA · Report · 28 Apr 2019

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity increased 3.65% YTD (the result of 3.57% in January and 3.74% in February), lower than what was expected by the market. The main concern for the first half of the year relates to the El Niño phenomenon and the drought that comes with it. The agricultural pro...

The year starts slowly…but exports of copper may change the trend. Martinelli´s trial may heat up the headlines
PANAMA · Report · 29 Mar 2019

The economic data for the first month of 2019 suggests a weak start to the year. The recently published Monthly Economic Index for January point in that direction (see Graph 1 below). Surprisingly, the effect of the World Youth Meeting in January, which should have increased internal demand by 0....

The 2018 results are in
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2019

Economic ActivityAccording to the figures published today by the Comptroller General, real GDP grew 3.7% during 2018. Our estimate was 3.8% for the year. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and some international organizations estimated growth at 4.2%. This result confirms the slowdown that...

We expect solid growth for 2019: Copper exports and private investment will be the engines
PANAMA · Forecast · 01 Mar 2019

Our GDP growth rate estimate for 2018 (3.8%) was lower than the government´s and that of several international organizations (above 5% on average). The official figures for the complete year will be published during the first week of March, in addition to the balance of payments results. The ...

The Board of Directors of the Panama Canal Authority elected Ricaurte Vásquez as the new Administrator (CEO) of the agency and Ilya Espino de Marotta as his Deputy
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

The Board of Directors of the Panama Canal Authority elected Ricaurte Vásquez as the new Administrator (CEO) of the agency and Ilya Espino de Marotta as his Deputy.Ricaurte Vásquez is the new CEO of the ACP, appointed unanimously by the eleven-member Board of Directors, for a period of seven year...

February flash: MEF complies with deficit ceiling and important Panama Canal Authority news
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

Fiscal PerformanceAccording to the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s (MEF) latest publication, the deficit of the non-financial public sector (NFPS) represented 2% of GDP for fiscal year 2018, thus barely hitting the ceiling of the Fiscal Social Responsibility law (FSRL). In November, we estimate...

World Youth Day 2019 and the new government's to-do list
PANAMA · Report · 23 Jan 2019

This is Francisco’s week. The Argentinian Pope will arrive at Tocumen Airport on January 23 for a three-day visit to preside over the World Youth Day ("JMJ" in Spanish), an event that occurs every three years in a different city of the world; it was last held in Krakow, Poland in 2016 and drew th...

Official date confirm our estimations of deceleration
PANAMA · Report · 26 Dec 2018

According to data published by the Comptroller's General Office last week, real GDP grew 3.6% in Q3 and 3.6% from January to September. In YTD terms, growth was driven by transportation and communications, commerce, health and social services, realty and services to business, financial intermedia...

Q3 fiscal results: a sign of things to come
PANAMA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

The Fiscal Responsibility Law was amended to allow the NFPS to raise the ceiling of the net deficit to 2% of GDP at the end of 2018, up from 1% set in the previous version. The results through September suggest that even the new ceiling will be difficult to attain. The fiscal balance of the NFPS ...

Panama: The Presidential race is on
PANAMA · In Brief · 29 Oct 2018

This Sunday, two parties held their primaries: the incumbent Panameñista Party and the hard-liner leftist Frente Amplio por la Democracia (FAD). The major of Panama City, José I. Blandón defeated by an ample margin (56.7% vs. 38.1 %) his main opponent, Mario Etchelecu (former Minister of Housing)...

Economic projections for 2019 are optimistic…but some issues must be closely followed
PANAMA · Report · 24 Oct 2018

International analysts are bullish about the growth of the Panamanian economy next year: the IMF projects 6.8%, the World Bank 5.4%, ECLAC 5.2%, and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) assumed an implicit real growth rate of 5.8% in the budget (not yet approved). We projected a 5% growth ra...

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