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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Moderation Times
PERU · Forecast · 19 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Amid a less favorable international environment, and louder political noise, the Peruvian economy slowed mildly this year. The two main culprits were a decline in exports, and dwindling private investment growth. We expect GDP to grow 5% in 2013, or 1.5 pp below the robust avera...

In Bad Company
PERU · Report · 06 Dec 2013

Executive Summary New Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva, quite successful as president of the San Martin region at eradicating coca leaf crops, has been lauded for his hands-on approach to governance. That will be a refreshing change, as Villanueva’s predecessor seemed uncomfortable with decision-m...

Turning Point On Growth?
PERU · Report · 30 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Scandal upon scandal seems to be erupting, crowding out potential debates over substantive political issues. First, there’s the string of corruption cases in Congress—the latest focused on a politician discovered paying himself more than half the congressional funds meant for hi...

Thanks, Mr. President
PERU · Report · 16 Sep 2013

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala’s announcement that “the crisis has arrived” depressed confidence in Peru—according to a recent poll, 61% of Peruvians think the country is already in economic crisis. So the government’s main near-term task is to avoid hitting the brakes too hard. Unfor...

Party's Over
PERU · Forecast · 22 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryExport decline plus lower growth rate of domestic demand led to H1 GDP growth slowdown, to 5.1% y/y, from 6.3% in the same period in 2012 (and an average of 6.5% over the decade). We expect slower private investment expansion in H2, given weaker business confidence. But public sp...

After the Fiasco
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryPresident Ollanta Humala is trying to recover lost ground, on the heels of the Repsol fiasco that led to both a loss of business confidence and a weakening of his own approval ratings. So low have the president's ratings fallen that his wife Nadine Heredia, whose name we used to ...

Peru’s Winter of Our Discontent
PERU · Report · 26 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryThe most unusual of Peru’s recent spate of protests was a spontaneous uprising organized via social media, against the appointments of six Constitutional Tribunal judges and an ombudsman. Instead of choosing qualified candidates, Congress parceled the posts out among political pa...

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