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Boluarte fights to boost her popularity; pension reform proposal advances; real GDP to fall 0.5% in 2023, then rebound 1.7% in 2024
PERU · Report · 24 Oct 2023 · 1 response

We discuss three key topics in this report. First, we assess the attempt by President Dina Boluarte to boost her public popularity, and discuss the deinstitutionalization of Peruvian society, with reference to recent opinion polls. Next we examine Congress’s proposal to allow workers to further w...

Boluarte still vulnerable; economic risk rises; sticky inflation likely to delay rate cuts until November
PERU · Forecast · 12 Sep 2023

In this forecast report, we discuss different potential scenarios for politics, the economy and the markets. In politics, we focus on the possible outcomes of the efforts of President Dina Boluarte to increase her support. We argue that, rather than developing policy to tackle the problems affect...

Centrist parties hit by accusations; economy enters recession; BCRP to cut rates in October
PERU · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we offer an update on the Peruvian political scene; on the country’s economic performance; and on the timing of the first Central Bank rate cut. We argue that, while political risk has eased, President Dina Boluarte remains isolated and unpopular. The political capital of the two ...

Peru: Boluarte vows for consensus
PERU · In Brief · 28 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Today President Boluarte went to Congress and delivered her annual speech. Being highly unpopular, the speech was an attempt to reach out the opposition and the population at large. Left-wing parties are demanding her resignation, although they do not have the votes in Congress to force an impeac...

Peru: Peaceful protests
PERU · In Brief · 20 Jul 2023

Last night the announced protests by the leftists groups and unions took place. They were more peaceful than anticipated and according to Interior Minister, Vicente Romero, gathered in total 21,000 protesters, of whom 8 were injured (4 civilians and 4 policemen) and 6 detained. Although the prote...

Political scene remains uncertain; El Niño introduces downside risk; we retain our call for an August rate cut
PERU · Report · 11 Jul 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we focus on three main topics. First, we discuss the expected busy political calendar for July. On July 19th, left-wing organizations and parties are planning a march into Lima, similar that of January 28th. On July 26th, Congress will elect its new president and board. And on Jul...

Political and economic scenarios for 2023-2026
PERU · Forecast · 13 Jun 2023

This report focuses on our 2023‒2026 forecasts. In the first section, we discuss possible political scenarios. Our base case is that President Dina Boluarte remains in office until July 2026. However, we suggest that Boluarte faces two significant threats: accusations of human rights violations a...

President Boluarte in trouble; government upbeat on the economy; BCRP’s first cut now expected in August
PERU · Report · 16 May 2023

In this report, we discuss the unfortunate comments made by President Dina Boluarte, in response to the recent international human rights reports, and the risk of her being forced to resign. Then we discuss the Q1 2023 real GDP report released on May 15th, and our forecast for economic performanc...

Boluarte holds on; economy to recover gradually; BCRP’s first rate cut delayed to June
PERU · Report · 18 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we offer an update on politics, the economy and the markets. We argue that the government of President Dina Boluarte has gained stability, and that Boluarte has improved her chances of staying in office until the scheduled July 2026 end of her term. On the economy, we argue that e...

Boluarte survives; focus shifts to the economy; BCRP to cut rates in April
PERU · Report · 21 Mar 2023 · 1 response

In this report, we focus on our new forecasts. We first discuss how long President Dina Boluarte is likely to remain in power; then assess whether the Peruvian economy has fallen into recession; and, finally discuss our outlook for policy rate management by the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (...

A political impasse; economy falls into recession; BCRP to start cutting rates in Q2
PERU · Report · 14 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

In this analysis we focus on the current political impasse, and its consequences for economic performance and monetary policy. With gridlock in Congress and the body’s related inability to approve early elections, public pressure may play a greater role. We argue that there are four possible outc...

Boluarte’s struggle for legitimacy; protests in the south hit the economy
PERU · Report · 17 Jan 2023

In this report, we focus on the repercussions of the recent public protests for the political landscape and the economy. We start by asking ourselves how new President Dina Boluarte can gain legitimacy in order to remain in power. While we argue that the government has all the resources necessary...

Political system at a crossroads
PERU · Forecast · 20 Dec 2022 · 1 response

In this report, we offer our quarterly forecasts. We first discuss the unstable political situation, and explore the different scenarios that could play out following the ousting of former president Pedro Castillo. Then we discuss our macroeconomic forecasts. Since the risks are high, we introduc...

Peru Political Crisis - What's Next?
PERU · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 2 responses

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne as he discusses the ousting of Pedro Castillo as President after his attempt to dissolve Congress and what's next for Peru under newly sworn-in President Dina Boluarte.

Peru: Castillo is ousted
PERU · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022 · 2 responses

A few minutes ago Congress voted former president Castillo impeachment and was approved by 101 votes, more than the two-thirds needed (87 votes). This followed Mr. Castillo decision a few minutes before mid-day to shut down Congress, restrict rights, impose curfew from 10pm to 4am, and called a C...

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