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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Pre-ECQ developments
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

The following data released this week show a mildly improving economic picture before the surge in covid19 cases that led to the current lockdown.Government yesterday released February’s Labor Force Survey showing over 2.1 million of the nation’s working age population returning to the labor mark...

​Lockdown watch
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Mar 2021

Metro Manila and 4 surrounding provinces (“NCR plus”) went into the most stringent lockdown classification (“ECQ”[1]) today that will last a week. Checkpoints have been set up, a long curfew (6pm to 5am) imposed and only one person per household allowed to go out for essential procurements. The l...

Lockdown order for "NCR plus"
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Mar 2021

At around 6:30 tonight, President Rodrigo Duterte placed Metro Manila and four surrounding provinces (“NCR plus”) under Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ), ordering people to stay at home and shuttering businesses deemed non-essential. But unlike last year, public transport will continue to oper...

​Covid watch (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Mar 2021

The surge in covid19 cases continued this week with the daily new cases reaching another high of 9,838 today. The 7d average was 7,846 this week, up another 50% from last week and more than doubling in a span of 12 days. Metro Manila accounted for about half of the total. Most worrisome, health f...

Covid watch (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

Covid19 cases jumped again this week, with the case count reaching a record high of 7,103 today and the national weekly average rising by over 50%. The alert level is particularly high in Metro Manila which accounts for about half of the new cases and where hospital bed occupancy has been creepin...

​Covid watch (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

The uptrend in new covid19 cases continued this week with the case count exceeding 4,500 on Friday. New cases rose 46% week-on-week based on 7-day averages with Metro Manila seeing much higher case growth. The overall positivity rate is now over 10% and the reproduction number estimated at 1.2 fr...

Joblessness climbs; quality worsens
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

January’s Labor Force Survey (LFS) showed the country’s employment rate staying at 91.3%, same as last quarter, but with the share of the underemployed rising to 16% from 14.4%. Combined with an unemployment rate of 8.7%, joblessness rose to 23.3% in January from 21.9% last quarter. Although the ...

​Covid watch
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Mar 2021

Excitement this week over the rollout of donated Chinese vaccines and arrival of more from Covax has, by the weekend, been doused by reports of rising covid19 infections, with the more transmissible variants of the coronavirus having been detected locally. Yesterday, the health department reporte...

​Inflation rises to 4.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Mar 2021

The headline inflation rate rose again from 4.2% in January to 4.7% in February. However, compared with previous months, inflation momentum weakened significantly with the month-on-month inflation rate slowing to 0.2% from an average of over 1% in the last three months. This is due mainly to stea...

Slow crawl out of the trenches
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Feb 2021

2021 is shaping up to be another lackluster year for the local economy. Hopes of achieving herd immunity have been dashed by delayed vaccine procurement, and the lack of vaccines has meant more caution in relaxing restrictions, keeping segments of the population locked down and public transport a...

​Should we worry about inflation? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) today announced that January inflation shot up to 4.2% from 3.5% in December, traced largely to food inflation which rose 6.6%. In the space of one month, average prices went up 1.3%, the highest since June 2008 with food prices contributing close to 3/4s...

​4Q20 GDP: improving but weak
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

As expected, the contraction in GDP declined from double digits in 2Q and 3Q to 8.3% yoy in 4Q following looser quarantine restrictions and increased supply of public transport. The 4Q level of activity was a 5.6% improvement over 3Q on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Nevertheless, the weakness of t...

Data watch: Gross international reserves
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

Last year, gross international reserves (GIR) surged 25% to end the year at close to $110 billion. This is remarkable considering the unprecedented global scale and severity of the covid19 crisis. While short-term capital exited emerging markets as in past crises, this time around in the Philippi...

Should we worry about inflation?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

For the last two months of 2020, inflation had surprised on the upside. Although the headline rate still looked rather benign at 3.5% in December, the overall price level in fact increased by 1.9% between October and December, reflecting month-on-month inflation rates of 1.1% in November and 0.9%...

Yearend note
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2020

2020 has zoomed by but before the year closes, we leave our readers with the following charts of an extraordinarily eventful year that will leave its mark on the Philippine economy for the foreseeable future. We wish everyone a healthful new year.Source of basic data: IMFSource of basic data: PSA...

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