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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Taxing Problem
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Oct 2015

This time last year, we called attention to the higher likelihood of congress’s passing revenue-eroding tax measures as election season approached.[1] And indeed a few months later, President Aquino signed a law increasing the tax-exempt threshold for employee bonuses, adjusting for inflation the...

Horse race
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Sep 2015

So far, there are three. In order of their announcements to join the presidential race, these are Vice President Jejomar Binay, former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Senator Grace Poe. Latest polls show that the last one out of the gate, i.e., Senator Poe, leading by a nose and that for practic...

Lowering growth forecasts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Aug 2015

We are downgrading our GDP forecasts to 5.7% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016 (from 6.1% and 6.5%, respectively[1]). The revisions reflect both the just released GDP numbers, which show moderate 1H15 growth of 5.3% (see Box), and expected crop losses from a strengthening El Niño. Our revised forecasts im...

FX Watch
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Aug 2015

China's attempt to pursue a more market-based exchange rate has seen other Asian currencies depreciating alongside it. The impact on the peso has been relatively smaller compared with other neighboring currencies, reflecting robust external accounts. But at a time when exports across the region a...

External Headwinds
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 07 Aug 2015

External risks have increased since our last report.Our outlook, which sees GDP growth at 6.1% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016, is one of guarded optimism that considers robust domestic demand growth alongside softer export demand, increasing foreign investor caution, more volatile global financial mark...

Euro zone headwinds 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2015

Five years ago, tremors from Europe’s troubled periphery countries[1], originating in Greece, rocked global financial markets. While this led to some volatility in local financial markets, the impact was temporary and the magnitude of asset price declines relatively small, reflecting the minimal ...

Will Mr. Roxas run?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jun 2015

In past weeks, a number of aspiring Presidential candidates have visibly stepped up their game in apparent efforts to influence survey numbers. Today, one of the leading pollsters, Pulse Asia, released the results of its much-awaited June 2015 survey showing very interesting results to the questi...

Monetary Policy Where It Belongs
PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Jun 2015

Executive SummaryThe BSP has been telling markets that it will be moving into an interest rate corridor approach in implementing monetary policy. The plan, expected to be in place by early next year, will involve first putting in place a new deposit auction system to augment existing liquidity ma...

Disappointing
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 May 2015

Even though we were poised to cut our 6.7% full-year GDP growth forecast, we were as surprised as anyone by the mediocre 5.2% 1Q15 performance of the economy. The announcement at once sent the main stock index down 1.6% in morning trade. Indeed, one can hardly miss the tone of disappointment in t...

Still slow
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 May 2015

Government finally released yesterday its expenditure report for 1Q15 validating our suspicion that it failed to spend as much as it had planned. The report showed non-interest expenditures rising 6.3% yoy, slightly faster than the last two quarters but below the double-digit growth rate of 1Q14....

Heading for the Homestretch
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 May 2015

Executive Summary The government of Benigno Aquino is heading towards its last year in office basking in glowing reviews about the resilience and growth potential of the economy.As the din characteristic of pre-election Philippines grows louder, many wonder whether they will see a more active Pre...

Customs Commissioner Resigns
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

Should we be worried that Customs Commissioner John Phillip Sevilla has resigned? After all, Mr. Sevilla, who was appointed in late 2013, is credited with the impressive 21% growth in import duty collections last year that helped to raise the overall tax effort in 2014 by another 0.3% of GDP. Wer...

Hold, hike or cut?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 25 Mar 2015

It is a foregone conclusion that Thursday’s meeting of the Monetary Board of the BSP will see policy rates on hold.What divides market players is whether policy rates will remain steady for the rest of the year, or whether hikes or cuts are in store. The April issue of Focus Economics shows that ...

The writing on the wall
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Mar 2015

President Benigno Aquino has been on the receiving end of a string of negative feedbacks lately, all arising from the botched operation to catch two terrorists in Mindanao last January. [For background story on the Mindanao operation, see Quarterly Report, Year of the Bellwether", 11 February.] F...

Rough and tumble politics
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Mar 2015

We would have brushed aside as parochial the drama that has unfolded in the City of Makati were it not for the personalities involved. As it is, the situation where two people are claiming to be the lawful mayor has become a test of wills of sorts between the two leading contenders for the presid...

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