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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Everyone is a winner, but some more so than others
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2019

At 07:00 am Istanbul time, High Election Council (HEC) kept mum about who won Istanbul, as both candidates claimed victory by the tiniest of margins.Social media is aflame with rumors of skirmishes within HEC, with at least one of the judges injured.Yet, I shall not play the forensics poll analys...

Welcome to the jungle
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

It is 2:00 Monday, Istanbul time, or 2 hours after Mr. Yildirimdeclared victory in Istanbul, even though according to the unofficial tally of Anatolian Agencyroughly 110K of votes had remained to be counted, with Yildirim only ahead by 4,441. Then, CHP candidate Imamoglu and chairman Kilicdaroglu...

​Istanbul at razor’s edge, Erdogan downcast
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

At 22:48 Turkey time, with 96% of the votes counted, Yildirim’s lead in Istanbul shrank to 60K votes, as the few opposition TV channels began to complain about irregularities.In some of the less pro-AKP channels, impartial experts still predict Yildirim winning by 30K votes or so, and being so fa...

​First Update: No earthquake, just tremors
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

At 21:30 Turkish time the outcome of the municipal elections is shaping up gradually, though at least in 7 provinces it is too close to call the results. The province-based tally is as follows:AKP is ahead in 39, CHP 20, MHP 10 and HDP 8 provinces.The rebel province of Tunceli could choosea commu...

The curious case of CBRT reserves, a recap
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2019 · 9 responses

CBRT reserves have been the markets’ focus since last week because of substantial drops in net reserves that could not be attributed to the familiar factors. As a lot of numbers have been floating around since then, we thought it would be useful to provide some background on where these numbers a...

​Final Words: CHP-IYIP have wind in their sails
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019 · 1 response

It is time to spell out my final predictions on Sunday’s municipal elections. Before I cut to the chase, a few words on my method and thought process needs to be said, because covering this election campaign was a harrowing experience. Since the 2010 referendum, I used a trimmed mean of poll resu...

How Ankara “tamed” the currency market? A case study in absurdity
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Mar 2019 · 2 responses

I had to delay my plan to say the final word on approaching municipal elections to Thursday, on account of the bizarre measures taken by the Turkish authorities to defend the currency and their permanency.As I write these lines Turkish sources reported (quoting Reuters) that the emergency measure...

​A few thoughts on the recent market turmoil
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2019 · 1 response

Turkish markets have gone wild again in the past few days, which started with a sharp depreciation of the lira on Friday, when the currency weakened by about 5%-6% against the dollar on a single day. In response, the CBRT has decided to tighten liquidity over the weekend, altogether cancelling li...

Groundhog Day
TURKEY · Report · 24 Mar 2019

Last week’s polls indicate the opposition is gaining momentum across the nation, though there is still not sufficient evidence to call for a CHP-IYIP victory in Istanbul. Polls also determine that up to 10% of potential voters may be still undecided, with vast majority coming from AKP-MHP axis. R...

Western tensions, fiscal excesses
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2019

Both the US and EU served notice that Turkey must change its ways to continue its membership in the Western alliance. The US threatens new sanctions if S-400s are purchased and aid to Maduro endures. The EU made it clear that Turkey should expect neither visa waivers nor negotiations on a new Cus...

In recession, of a balance sheet kind
TURKEY · Report · 11 Mar 2019

The Turkish GDP contracted by 2.4%, q/q, in Q4, after a 1.6% contraction in Q3 (revised down from 1.1% previously), broadly in line with expectations, which also means that by the widely-accepted popular and technical definition of recession (of two consecutive quarters of sequential decline), th...

Election campaign runs into S-400s
TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2019

Turkey and the US stepped towards the ring once again, with Pentagon issuing a final warning to Ankara that the purchase of S-400s is a sanctionable act. Ankara doesn’t take the threat seriously, hoping that Trump will intervene at the last second. Turkey’s relations with the West has taken a tur...

No surprises from the MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2019

As expected, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today, which was the last meeting before local elections of March 31st. Recall also that this is the fourth consecutive meeting that the Bank left rates unchanged, since it had raised...

Inflation eases further, but looking sticky
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2019

Consumer prices rose by 0.16%, m/m, in February, somewhat lower than the market consensus of some 0.4%-0.5%, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence easing further to 19.7%, from 20.4% in January. The 12-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to drop as well, to 29.6% from 32.9% during this period,...

London trip notes
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2019

We were both in London from Tuesday through Friday to participate in a dinner event with some 20 experts/investors, which was hosted by TD Securities, organized jointly with Global Source Partners. During this time, we also got to visit several buy and sell-side financial firms touring separately...

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