Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2017

The arrest order by a New York court for the former Economy Minister Mr. Zafer Caglayan could be the harbinger of new tensions between Turkey and the U.S., as well as a period of trouble for the banking industry. Several EU members went on record turning down Germany’s request to end accession ta...

​Really, Mrs. Merkel?
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Pressured by her Social Democrat rival Mr. Schultz, Chancellor Merkel was forced to promise to end or suspend Turkish accession on Sunday in a televised debate. I waited until Wednesday to cover this story, because she seemed evasive in her response to Schultz. However in Tuesday, in her speech t...

Core Rises Further Despite Lira Stability
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Consumer prices rose by a markedly higher than expected 0.5% in August, taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 10.7%, from 9.8% in July. Producer prices and core inflation (C-index) also rose further to 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively (from 15.5% and 9.6%), while service inflation was stable, b...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2017

Turkey enters autumn season with harshly enforced calm at home, but the opposition is gathering force. The short-term threats to political risk premium emanate from abroad. Tensions with Germany escalated another notch, when Turkey arrested yet another Germany couple. Berlin will have to retaliat...

No clear and present danger
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Aug 2017

We will start our official coverage next week, but seeing how EM currencies became suddenly popular once again after Yellen and Draghi speeches at Jackson Hole, I felt it was incumbent upon me to give a run-down on political risks to determine whether they could derail the TL rally. The brief ans...

Fundamentals vs. Rabbits
TURKEY · Forecast · 21 Aug 2017

A benign global backdrop and massive stimulus measures will produce another year of strong growth, it looks like, but this doesn’t change the discomforting fact that Turkish economy continues to live on borrowed time. Secular growth outlook remains cloudy, while the usual imbalances – a hefty cur...

Phillips Curve Is Not So Flat Over Here
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2017

Thanks to a monthly reading of 0.15% (July 2016: 1.2%) headline CPI inflation fell to a single-digit rate of 9.8% in July, y/y, from 10.9% in June, broadly as expected. This was entirely on account of the drop in food inflation (to 14.3%, from 10.1% in June), with non-food inflation, by our esti...

Till Reality Do Us Part
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2017

In politics, we continue to predict relative calm at home through the end of this year, at the turn of which AKP should realize that its popularity is waning. Facing weakening economic growth as well, it is likely to call early elections by mid-2018 rather than wait until November 2019 -- and ris...

MPC: Still On Hold, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as expected, did not alter any of the short-term interest rates at today’s meeting, leaving the Late Liquidity Window rate at 12.25%, the one-week repo rate at 8.0%, and the O/N lending/borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively (Graph 1).

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2017

Turkey’s habit of arresting people suspected of anti-government activity at the slightest doubt has exhausted the patience of Germany, which now has three of its citizens in prison. Berlin threatens economic and political sanctions, a new low in Turko-EU relations. We predict with 75% odds that t...

HEADS UP: A new conflict brewing up between Turkey and Germany
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jul 2017

The Germany Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Sigmar Gabriel stated—according to Deutsche Welle- that "We want Turkey to be a part of the West, or at least remain in its current position, but it takes two to tango," Sigmar Gabriel at a press conference in Berlin. "I cannot make out any willingness...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2017

The Justice March and the first anniversary of the attempted coup have been completed without violence. The odds of sudden military strike in Syria also remain low. Political risks remain acceptable in Turkey in the short-term. At the first anniversary of the coup attempt, Turkey is worse-off ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jul 2017

The politics section of the Weekly has been penned before Kilicdaroglu’s justice rally in Istanbul, which is expected to proceed without a major security incident. The first section assesses whether his 450 km march from Ankara to Istanbul could alter the political equilibrium in the country. The...

Headline Drops Further on Food, Lira
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2017

Consumer prices dropped by 0.27% in June, m/m, which compared favorably to consensus expectation of some 0.1% increase (June 2016: 0.5%). The 12-month rate hence declined more than expected to 10.9% from 11.7% in May. Producer prices also eased to 14.9%, y/y, from 15.3% in May, but remains rather...

Justice march and Syria needs monitoring
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

I’ve returned from a 15 day business trip to USA, where I had met representatives from roughly 35 institutions. I’ll provide more details in the upcoming Weekly Report, but in a nutshell interest in the Turkey story is strong, while positioning is light, which I expect to increase only very modes...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.