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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 18 Dec 2016

The second major attack in as many weeks suggests that terror might become a leading political risk for Turkey in 2017. We discuss the implications, which go beyond economics to ethnic polarization and a deeper military involvement in Syria. The text of the presidential reform bill contains po...

Poorer in Q3, Richer on the Whole
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2016

Today’s GDP print showed that the economy contracted by a sharper than expected 1.8% in Q3, y/y, markedly worse than our expectation of “weak growth in moderately positive territory”. The sharp drop partly owes to a higher base, as we now learnt that – based on today’s new GDP series – the Turkis...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2016

Turkey was shaken by another terrorist attack last night with two bombs exploding at a very central district of Istanbul, killing almost 40 (mostly police) and wounding another 160 people. No one had claimed responsibility at the time of this writing, but senior officials pointed to the PKK, the ...

ECC Announcements: It's All About Growth and Credit
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2016

PM Binali Yildirim made the much-awaited announcements today on the measures that were decided at last Friday's Economic Coordination Council. The measures, the details of which we shall report further in due course, essentially target improving credit access for the private sector, particularly ...

Past Performance is No Guarantee of...
TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Twelve-month CPI inflation eased in November to 7% from 7.2% in October, contrary to expectations of a slight increase, as monthly rate came in at 0.5% vs. expectations of a 0.8% increase. Producer prices jumped visibly to 6.4%, y/y, from 2.8% a month earlier, likely driven by higher energy price...

Fasten Your Seatbelts!
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2016

Instead of a Weekly Update, we are sending a Monthly in a Q&A format today, which we thought would be a better way of addressing some of the questions that might vex your minds​. AKP and MHP finally agreed on the Executive Presidency. There will be a referendum on the subject by May or June, i...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 27 Nov 2016

After a fighter jet believed to be operated by Assad’s loyalists bombed Turkish forces in Syria, the prospect of a PYD/YPG-Turkey-Assad conflict has risen substantially. Syria is now our top political risk. The European Parliament resolved to freeze Turkish accession temporarily. EU leaders a...

CBRT Acts, But Will It Suffice?
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2016

The CBRT/MPC hiked the weekly-repo and O/N lending rates by 50 and 25 bps, respectively, at today’s meeting, to 8% and 8.5%, leaving the O/N borrowing rate unchanged at 7.25% (Graph 1). The move is certainly better than nothing and somewhat better than the consensus, and also shows that the Bank ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2016

AKP and MHP will begin negotiating in earnest on the details of the constitutional reform bill this week. We expect a compromise and a referendum in April-May. If MHP backtracks AKP could resort to early elections. Tensions with the EU are rising by the day. European Parliament could pass a mo...

Week of November 13
TURKEY · Report · 13 Nov 2016

New political risks are cropping up each day. Thanks to an emerging deal between AKP and MHP, a presidential referendum is now very likely to take place in the spring. It is not clear whether an Erdogan victory or defeat is the “good case” scenario for Turkey. It is not yet possible to draw fi...

​Trump and Turkey—Initial thoughts
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2016

Even though Trump has barely made a foreign policy speech, I know markets wait for no man and my audience demands to know how Trump would sit with Turkey. I’m committing my initial thoughts to writing, warning the readers that these are sketchy and prone to large margins of error. I’ll update in ...

Troubling Times
TURKEY · Forecast · 04 Nov 2016

These are unprecedented times for Turkey, with each passing day bringing new uncertainties and troubling developments. The environment makes forecasting a fool’s errand, but we nevertheless try to take stock, and share some -- admittedly preliminary -- thoughts on the macroeconomics of 2017. T...

If Only Lira Calmed Down...
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside again in October, coming in at 1.4%, m/m, lower than the consensus expectation of a 1.7% increase. (Our forecast was slightly higher, at 1.8%). The 12-month CPI-rate hence eased slightly further to 7.2% in October from 7.3% in September, while pr...

​Black Swans flocking to Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2016

Turkish markets tanked today, as news agencies headlined mobilization of armored forces at the Iraqi border. This is not the only risk bugging the domestic investor. It is as if one can hear the flapping of wings by a flock of Black Swans. Turkey is not for the faint hearted. It is not easy to pr...

The day lights went out in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2016

I honestly don’t know how important the erosion of democratic standards in a country is for my audience. If it isn’t don’t read this Market Update, or read it to confirm your conviction that Erdogan is gradually but irreversibly consolidating power in Turkey. But if democratic norms do play a rol...

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