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Waiting for the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2023

This is another econ-only report, as the politics author is in transit after holding several rounds of meetings in New York, which he will report on, among other things, during the week. Consumer confidence dropped sharply again in July, owing to TL weakness and as the effect of pre-election s...

A matter of words vs deeds
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a less than expected 250 bps today (vs. a median forecast of about 500 bps hike) to 17.5% (see chart), but broadly in line with our expectations (of some 200-300 bps hike). Recall that we’ve been working with the assumption of the MPC ge...

Quo Vadis Mr Erdogan?
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

Executive Summary: Erdogan’s reinvention in progress, preview of a critical week and Ukraine grain deal This Special Brief is filed separately from our Weekly Tracker because of time differences between USA and Turkey, and my impending trip to NYC where I shall be visiting members of our GSP audi...

Playing catch up
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2023

Our politics author will write his update separately in the next 24-48 hours, because of a few emergencies he had to attend to; please accept our apologies. We start this econ-only Weekly with a preview of this Thursday’s upcoming MPC/CBRT meeting, at which we think there is again a risk of un...

Erdogan greenlights Sweden’s NATO membership, but why?
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

Turkey’s ever-so-inscrutable leader Erdogan staged another phenomenal U-turn greenlighting Sweden’s NATO membership after a summit with Stoltenberg and Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson. Turkish parliament is scheduled to ratify Swedish accession in a few days. On the face of it, two critical steps by S...

Watching Vilnius, reserves and the budget
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jul 2023

The politics author returns to work by discussing the potential electoral impact of the huge tax hikes at first. These will be highly painful to AKP voters in large urban centers, he thinks, but President Erdogan has other ways to engineer a victory at the March 2024 local elections. While it ...

On June inflation and a few other things
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 3.9%, m/m, in June, with the 12- rate thus easing to 38.2%, from 39.6% in May, largely owing to – once again -- last year’s elevated base. Producer prices, reflecting a quicker pass-through from TL weakness, rose by a more visible 6.5%, m/m, ...

IMPORTANT TRAVEL NOTICE
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Jun 2023

I’ll be in USA between 30 June and September to attend to family matters. I’ll have little or no access to Internet between 30 June and 5 July. Please contact our NYC staff or my colleague Murat Ucer for questions and requests. Atilla Yesilada

Groundhog day economics
TURKEY · Forecast · 25 Jun 2023 · 1 response

In this quarter’s installment of our forecast report, produced in an environment of “radical uncertainty”, both domestically and abroad, we once again deviate from the traditional format and share some tentative thoughts and numbers on how the macro might play out until the local elections of Mar...

Deciphering Erdogan’s road map
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Erdogan and his long-time companion Bahçeli came out of a very tough election marathon with smiles all around, but they didn’t make it clear what they planned to do during the next five years when they shall reign over Turkey uncontested. AKP's Manifesto for the 100th Anniversary of the Republic ...

Underwhelming hike, improved statement
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2023

Under the new Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan’s stewardship, the 5-member Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate (one-week repo rate) to 15% from 8.5% today, markedly less than the consensus forecast of 20-25%, which happens to be the first increase in the policy rate since Govern...

Time to get down to business
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jun 2023

After a week spent puking his lungs out in violent spasms of pneumonia, the politics author returns to his job, predicting President Erdogan will approve Sweden’s accession to NATO before or during the Vilnius Summit. He may need some encouraging words from Biden though, re. the F-16 order, to ta...

In pursuit of semi-pregnancy
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2023 · 2 responses

In this econ-only weekly, we share a few thoughts on last week’s appointments to top econ posts, and briefly review the week’s data releases, including the latest reserve developments, as our politics author, unfortunately, tries to recover from pneumonia. In the meantime, we are following th...

Ignore the headline, focus on core, services
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices were unchanged over a month ago in May, thanks to pre-election free natural gas offer to households for a month, with the 12-month rate dropping to 39.6%, from 43.7% in April. Domestic producer prices rose modestly by 0.7% in the month, m/m, thanks, among others, to subdued energy...

New beginnings or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jun 2023

Erdogan’s new Cabinet is full of surprises, highlighted by the return of former economy czar Mehmet Simsek. Simsek though, is only the tip of the iceberg in a Cabinet characterized with conciliatory and capable names drafted from party and civil service. The new Cabinet appears to have been grant...

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