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Reuters news
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016

Replying to your queries, I'm posting the Reuters news item in Turkish I referred to in my morning update ANALİZ-Davutoğlu ile anayasa başta olmak üzere bazı konularda fikir ayrılığına düşen Erdoğan, AKP'de olağanüstü kongre için harekete geçebilir - Reuters News 03-May-2016 05:25:30 PM Ercan Gur...

​Turkish politics to remain under heavy fog
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016 · 1 response

I don’t intend to turn this website into a daily blog, but stability in Turkish politics is evaporating very rapidly. I felt it incumbent upon myself to warn my readers that according to some news outlets premier Davutoglu might offer his resignation to president Erdogan tonight. While I find the...

Disinflation Illusion Continues
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised once again on the downside in April, coming in at a better than expected 0.8%, m/m, thanks to a very sharp fall in food inflation – the latter constituting the best April on record, since the new series began in 2003. Twelve-month CPI-inflation hence dropped fur...

​Earthquake in AKP
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 May 2016

In our recently published Quarterly Report, I predicted that political risks might begin to be discounted by markets as early as by June or July. One of these risks was the growing rift between president Erdogan and PM Davutoglu. Developments on Friday and over the weekend might possibly expedite...

Resilient Yet Vulnerable
TURKEY · Forecast · 01 May 2016

After a very rough start into the year, Turkish markets are benefitting greatly from the dramatic improvement in global risk appetite. Thanks to this supportive backdrop and with headline inflation in cyclical decline, largely owing to lower food prices and base effects, the CBRT has started anot...

Terror, again
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

Turkey faced terror once again, this time in nation’s automotive capital Bursa, in front of the Historic Ulu Mosque. A woman believed to be affiliated with ISIS blew herself up, injuring 13 citizens. Eyewitness accounts have it that she stumbled in the last second, dropping a plastic bag, where s...

Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2016

Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss With our economist, Dr Murat abroad with business, the task of evaluating the first public performance of new CBRT chairman Mr. Cetinkaya has fallen upon me, the Political Analyst. The lines below are my personal impressions, ...

Weekly Tracker: April 24-30
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2016

Turkish politics will be entering a dark tunnel as of the start of this week, our politics author argues, which promises nothing but turbulence and uncertainty. As a result, political risks will indisputably rise, but providing a precise timing as to when is extremely difficult. You may read the ...

MPC Does the Expected, More to Come
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2016

​The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its first meeting today under the chairmanship of the new Governor, Mr. Murat Cetinkaya, opting for a 50 bps cut of the O/N lending rate to 10% (simple), in line with expectations of the majority of analysts, including us. The other two rates – O/N borrow...

Weekly Tracker: April 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2016

Turkey’s smaller opposition parties, HDP and MHP, are in disarray. The pro-Kurdish rights HDP is facing the threat of several of its members being excommunicated from the Grand Assembly, if a controversial amendment to the Constitution restricting parliamentary immunities passes. The leader of th...

​The parliament is getting ready to lift its own immunities
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2016

It fills my heart with joy to receive questions from you, because it means Turkey is still being covered. Here is the latest query: “Hello, I have a question on the talks about removing the HDP immunity. We read that now CHP would not be against it. What exactly does it mean in terms of repercuss...

New CBRT chairman: The proof of the pudding is in the eating
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016

Dr Murat Ucer covered the basics of the appointment of Mr. Cetinkaya as the new CBRT head yesterday, where he also voiced my disappointments that Turkey is unlikely to witness prudent and independent monetary policy in the near future. In this brief, I want to add more political analysis and comm...

Mr. Murat Cetinkaya to Become the New CBRT Governor
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016

Today the government has decided on the appointment of Mr. Murat Cetinkaya -- currently a Deputy Governor and an MPC member -- as the new Governor of the CBRT. Mr. Cetinkaya (together with Dr. Ahmet Faruk Aysan, the Bank Board's Representative at the MPC) was among the most likely candidates for ...

Weekly Tracker: April 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 Apr 2016

Erdogan and Davutoglu frequently clash in front of the public nowadays, which suggests that Turkey’s two-headed administrative set-up is not sustainable. The question is whether Erdogan would replace Davutoglu, or the latter would rebel against him. If Erdogan doesn’t move, the failure of the Con...

March Inflation: Saved by the Devil
TURKEY · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in March, staying broadly unchanged over a month ago, versus consensus forecast of around 0.5% increase. This took the 12-month CPI rate sharply lower to 7.5%, from 8.8% in February, while Domestic-PPI inflation also eased further to 3.8% from 4....

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