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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation Ends 2015 At Almost 9%
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2016

Consumer prices rose by a more than expected 0.2% in December (consensus, no change), taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 8.8%, from 8.1% in November. CPI-inflation hence ended the year markedly above target (5%) for yet another year (Graph 1), as well as above both the first (5.5%) and th...

Weekly Tracker: January 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2016

Welcome back to the turbulent and irrational world of Turkish politics. Since our last writing, much that is of import has transpired, which requires detailed analysis. On the other hand, we are aware that you must have at least 19 other markets to catch up on, thus want to prevent information ov...

MPC: On a Wing and a Prayer
TURKEY · Report · 22 Dec 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised markets today – us, too, though we had not completely ruled out such an outcome – by not changing any of the rates (see chart). This is a pretty disappointing move that is hard to explain, other than, of course, by political motives. Otherwise, why would th...

MPC Preview: Simplification to Start
TURKEY · Report · 21 Dec 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee will hold its regular monthly meeting tomorrow to decide on the short-term interest rates. In line with the messages delivered earlier by the CBRT, the market expects – generally speaking – a hike of the weekly repo rate and the O/N borrowing rate, currently at 7.5% ...

​PKK and ISIS will raise risk premiums in 2016
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

PKK and ISIS will raise risk premiums in 2016 While Turkish markets greeted Fed’s “dovish tightening” move with a moderate rally, I’m writing this post to remind our readers of the daunting challenges that face Turkey in the political arena, on top of a relatively large current account deficit an...

Weekly Tracker: December 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2015

The government’s 2016 Action Plan promises a lot of pleasant improvements for socio-political arena, but very little concrete steps for structural reforms. Additionally, it is incredibly populist in terms of the envisaged spending measures. Turkey’s troubles with Russia continue and spread to ...

Growth Surging, CAD Tanking: So Are We Transformed?
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2015

Today’s GDP data (Q3) surprised on the upside, coming in at an impressive 4%, y/y, much stronger than the market forecasts of about 2.5%, and our slightly higher forecast. Growth was also strong relative to the previous quarter (seasonally- and working day-adjusted), registering a 1.3% expansion,...

Weekly Tracker: December 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Dec 2015

The crisis between Turkey and Russia is climbing by the day in words as well as in deeds. On the domestic side, President Erdogan wants constitutional change at once, while PM Davutoglu prefers to wait for two years. The two leaders could soon clash in other policy areas as well. In Cyprus, all v...

November Inflation and the New Normal
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2015

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 0.7% in November, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.1%, from 7.6% in October. Producer prices behaved better, declining to 5.25%, y/y, from 5.7% a month earlier, possibly reflecting the favorable cost-push effects from a stronger lira...

Bad news, good news
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2015

So many events are developing so fast that I couldn’t cover them all in the Weekly Tracker. In this update I’ll report on the murder of the Diyarbakir Bar Association Chairman Mr. Tahir Elci (bad news) and the summit agreement between Turkey and EU (very good news) regarding refugees and the open...

Weekly Tracker: Nov 29 - Dec 5
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2015

The downed jet fighter crisis between Turkey and Russia will not fade away soon. Russia’s real motive is to disengage Turkey from all Syrian affairs, for which it found the perfect excuse. The crisis is likely to escalate in the military and economic dimensions, raising Turkey’s risk premium perm...

Hack of a Day: First Impressions
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2015

Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet Bottom Line: Very worrisome news, but further escalation or military conflict is not a foregone conclusion… A much-feared development -- because various parties (Russia, U.S., Turkey, etc.) have been operating so close to each other over the Syrian territory --...

Weekly Tracker: November 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Nov 2015

The cabinet announcement has been delayed to early this week, reportedly because of President Erdogan’s busy schedule, but some differences of views -- between Davutoglu and Erdogan – seem to be playing a role as well. On the most market-sensitive issue of Mr. Ali Babacan’s role in the new cabine...

Weekly Tracker: November 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Nov 2015

The new cabinet is expected to be announced this week, when we shall get to see who’ll be in charge of the economy and/or what the new division of labor will be in the management of the economy. Yet, it will probably take a lot longer to get a clear picture on the more important issues like the e...

Weekly Tracker: November 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2015

We start with a very brief overview of the post-election scene. We recap the reasons for AKP’s victory, review the timeline before a new government is formed, and speculate on what we should expect on the economy side of things. As regards the latter, it is too soon to comment on the nature and t...

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