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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

MPC: On Autopilot a While Longer
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all interest rates unchanged today, as expected.The economics of the statement is also very similar to the previous ones except for a few minor additions (e.g., “the composition of growth is expected to shift gradually towards net exports in the upcoming periods...

Weekly Tracker: September 20-26
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2015

Our political analyst-cum-Cosmic strategist has opted for a different format in this Tracker, laying out his somewhat controversial albeit optimistic post-election scenario and thoughts. Please read on… We defer a detailed analysis of the week’s data releases to our monthly report to be publis...

​Concerned about escalating political risk
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Sep 2015

I was about to fire off a post about rising political risks, when an astute reader beat me to it with a couple of questions. As per my time-honored custom, s/he shall remain anonymous, but her/his questions and my answers shall live forever in memories like a beacon of hard-nosed strategic analys...

Weekly Tracker: September 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2015

After devastating PKK attacks on Turkish security forces, Turkey experienced near-riots in the West, which may get worse if a cease-fire is not declared. This is not a likely scenario, but Ankara doesn’t have a viable strategy to combat terror, either. But we remain optimistic for a lasting solut...

On Q2 Growth: “Damn the Torpedoes…”
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The Turkish economy grew by a higher than expected 3.8% in Q2, y/y, thanks to a sharp increase in domestic demand (6.8%, y/y), which made a 6.7 pps contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. The contributions of net exports and inventories were negative, broadly in line with expectations, shaving ...

Weekly Tracker: September 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2015

On the day of the publication of our monthly report last Tuesday, the police raided the headquarters of pro-Gulen KOZA-IPEK Holding on charges of money-laundering. We remain concerned that a new crackdown may be in progress, which may spill over to KOZA-IPEK’s media arm, and other dissident press...

This Time, It Ain’t Just Food...
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2015

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 0.4% in August (expectation: 0.1%), which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 7.1% from 6.8% in July. Twelve-month producer price inflation also rose to 6.2% from 5.6% a month earlier (Table 1; Graph 1). Most noteworthy is the fairly visible ju...

The Beginning of the End?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Sep 2015

With the formation of the Davutoglu “Election Government” Turkey officially set foot on the trail of reelections, which will be held on November 1st. AKP made a historic decision to declare war on ISIS, which may shorten the time to defeat this vicious virus, but the fall-out may be more bloody t...

First predictions on new election results
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2015 · 1 response

First predictions on new election results It is official. Turkey will be heading for the ballot box on 1st of November, under the premiership of Prof Davutoglu, who is expected to announce his Election Government Cabinet on Friday. He is extending offers to CHP, MHP and HDP, but the first two wil...

MPC: Too Little, Too (Still) Convoluted
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all interest rates unchanged today, broadly in line with the consensus. We also thought this course of action was a very high possibility, but, given the ongoing pressures on the lira (that has been inviting the Bank to some sort of action), we had left the door...

​New twists on the way to reelections
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2015

As I expected, the 11th hour attempt by PM designate Ahmet Davutoglu to convince MHP leader Bahceli to a coalition failed after a 2.5 hour meeting. Davutoglu indicated he may tender his resignation on Wednesday or Thursday to Erdogan, upon which CHP spokespersons called upon Erdogan to designate ...

MPC: What to Expect Tomorrow
TURKEY · Report · 17 Aug 2015

The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow. The meeting is an especially interesting one because: 1) it is the first meeting since Governor Basci signaled the Bank’s intention to simplify the monetary policy framework late last month; and 2) it is taking place at a time lira is at an...

What happens after new elections?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2015

Once again I take the stage to answer questions from a reader, who shall --as has now become custom--remain unanimous. I do love to field questions from you, but urge all of you who have my private e-mail to use this platform which reduces my workload greatly and facilitates information sharing. ...

Reelections loom on the horizon
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Aug 2015

Today’s summit between AKP leader Davutoglu and CHP’s Kilicdaroglu failed to produce a break-through, with both leaders declaring that Turkey is probably heading for reelections. We now assign 90% probability to a reelection before the turn of the year, possibly on 22th of November. Yet, as Kilic...

​Coalition alert: Turkey heading for early elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Aug 2015 · 3 responses

Turkey’s secularist bastion Cumhuriyet daily newspaper claimed that CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu told delegates from left-wing labor unions that Erdogan has sabotaged the coalition talks and the break-down may be announced as soon as Thursday. I’m linking the Turkish news item here. While the Tu...

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