Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

CBT Independence: How much longer?
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2015

I’m writing this brief to address FAQs after the recent barrage of criticism by Erdogan about CBT’s erroneous ways which reached the point of questioning the wisdom of its independence. To summarize the salient points of the debate, allow me to share this question by a reader, whose name I shall ...

Inflation and MPC: Back to Square One
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2015

January CPI inflation came in at 1.1%, which is higher than both consensus (0.7%) and our slightly higher forecast (0.8%). Most importantly, today’s print proved the overly optimistic expectations by Governor Basci unwarranted and, as announced by the Bank in the aftermath of the release, it rule...

Back To Square One
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2015

January CPI inflation came in at 1.1%, which is higher than both consensus (0.7%) and our slightly higher forecast (0.8%). Most importantly, data proved the overly optimistic expectations by the CBRT wrong and, as has just been stated by the Bank on its website, eliminated the (by-now notorious) ...

Weekly Tracker: February 1-7
TURKEY · Report · 01 Feb 2015

Executive Summary President Erdogan launched a campaign for a new Constitution and Executive Presidency after the general elections.This means the stakes are very high going to the June 7th ballot. We dedicate a major portion of the politics section to the implications of Mr. Erdogan’s dreams of ...

Hawkish Till February 4th
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2015

Today Governor Basci presented the first Inflation Report of the year. This year's yearend inflation estimate was revised down by 0.6 pps on the back of lower oil prices, down to 5.5% (midpoint). The key highlight of the meeting however was what the Governor said during the Q&A session: if Januar...

Oil+ECB=Turkey Decouples?
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2015

Executive Summary After a volatile year, Turkey has had a good start into 2015, the main driver being a collapsing oil price. Indeed, there is little doubt that a sharply lower oil price, bolstered by ECB tailwinds, is a great boon for Turkey’s macro balances and offers a cyclical opportunity for...

Weekly Tracker: January 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A car bomb exploded at the gates of the hotel in Mogadishu where the Turkish delegation was staying, but we are not sure this was a message to Erdogan. For the time being, fundamentalist terror is fortunately staying away from Turkey. The impeachment vote of four ex-ministers mu...

MPC: Between the President and the Lira
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jan 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced its one-week repo rate by a relatively sizable 50 bps to 7.75%, while keeping the O/N corridor intact (see chart). The move was relatively unexpected in the sense that the majority of participants in the recent CNBC-e poll, for instance, had expected th...

Weekly Tracker: January 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2015

Executive Summary As ISIS and Yemeni al-Qaeda urge their followers to attack Europe, authorities in large EU countries remain on high alert, leading us to think that Charlie Hebdo-like incidents may occur more frequently. Ankara, too, remains deeply concerned about contagion from fundamentalist t...

Weekly Tracker: January 11-17
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jan 2015

Executive Summary As a terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo shocked the world, smaller scale incidents in Istanbul were causing deep concern for us. Experts warn that a spate of bombings and sabotages may be in the cards for Turkey. AKP successfully hushed up the graft probe against four ex-minister...

Inflation: A Happy Ending to a Bad Year
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2015

December CPI inflation came in at a negative 0.4%, which was markedly lower than expected (0.1% increase). The 12-month CPI inflation hence fell quite sharply, ending the year at 8.2%, down from 9.2% in November. Domestic-PPI also fell sharply, ending the year at 6.4%, down from 8.4% (Table 1; Gr...

Weekly Tracker: January 4-10
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A parliamentary committee will vote on Monday whether to send some or all of the 4 ex-AKP ministers to the general floor with a recommendation to impeach. We bet that AKP MPs will acquit their colleagues. Meanwhile, we have no idea when the Constitutional Court will hand down it...

MPC: An Uneventful Ending
TURKEY · Report · 24 Dec 2014

In line with the consensus view, the Monetary Policy Committee left all interest rates unchanged today: the weekly repo rate at 8.25%; O/N lending and borrowing rates at 11.25% and 7.5%, respectively (see chart). In terms of the content of the statement, there was no major change from the previou...

The Great Divergence
TURKEY · Report · 21 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The old year departs with two important political events in tow. The Constitutional Court will rule whether the 10% election hurdle is fair. We can’t handicap the ruling, but if the hurdle is struck down, a frenzied rush will be triggered to replace it with new legislation, draw...

Weekly Tracker: December 14-20
TURKEY · Report · 14 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Our core agenda remains spillover from the war on ISIS to Turkey, the Peace Processes with the Kurds -- and now the Alevites; and the upcoming Constitutional Court ruling on the 10% election hurdle. Promising that these will be adequately covered in our upcoming Monthly report, ...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.