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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

MPC: On Hold, Looking…
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today, as it had done in the previous meeting (see graph). The statement was also virtually identical to the previous one, except one small change on the inflation outlook in a more dovish direction. The reference to benig...

Interesting Times, Dull Forecasts
TURKEY · Forecast · 20 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryAs we approach the end of another year of “rebalancing”, like in 2012, the absence of a secular narrative and the sense of “stuckness” in Turkey’s macro outlook are becoming all the more apparent. We think this has been vividly illustrated by the government’s recently released Me...

Weekly Tracker: October 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Oct 2014

Executive Summary This week’s Tracker consists of a brief overview of the latest data releases, a preview of the upcoming MPC meeting and a lengthy essay by the wily Cosmic Strategist. On the political side, there is not much to add to what we’ve already said during the week. Please take a look a...

Turkey and ISIS: There is No Light at the End of this Tunnel
TURKEY · Report · 16 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryThe sudden jihad war declared by ISIS in Iraq and Syria, countered by the increasing resolve of major Western powers to destroy it, presents the AKP government with the thorniest challenges of its 11 year administration. Since the Turkey-ISIS relationship is highly complex, the S...

Ankara’s twin crisis: Pentagon request rebuffed, PKK returns to insurgency
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Oct 2014

Painful cluster headaches held me back from contributing to the Weekly Tracker hence I’m issuing this brief note on two recent developments in lieu of an apology. On Tuesday, I'll address a conference call through GlobalSourcePartners to articulate my longer-term views and predictions on how the ...

Weekly Tracker: October 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Oct 2014

Executive Summary In this Economics-only Tracker, we review our take on the government’s new Medium Term Program, including a correction of an oversight on our part. We also touch upon the recent comments from the Fitch and the IMF.The former kept Turkey’s sovereign rating at investment grade, wh...

The MTP of Diminished Expectations
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2014

The government announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2015-17 yesterday, in a timely manner. This is typically done before the submission of the budget to parliament, by the constitutionally-set deadline of October 17th. Despite its shortcomings, the MTP is a very useful document that lays o...

​Heads up: Violent Kobane protests could shake markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2014

I had originally intended to update our audience with a long Market Brief on Turkey’s three conditions to deploy ground troops against ISIS. The violent protests in defense of Syrian Kurdish town Kobane that erupted across the nation last night completely changed the agenda. Turkey is waking up t...

Time To Have a Little Break
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2014

September CPI inflation came in at a better than expected 0.1% (consensus: 0.4%), largely on account of a favorable drop in food prices and a somewhat stronger than expected base effect in transportation prices. Food prices, we estimate, have shrunk modestly in September (seasonally-adjusted), po...

Turkey’s “no guts, no glory” Dilemma
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2014

The Cabinet submitted a war powers bill to the parliament which seeks to receive broad authority to combat ISIS, PKK and “other terror organizations in our region” at home and abroad. The bill is worded intentionally vague, leaving much of the discretion in terms of specifics to the Cabinet. For ...

Reform Package: Neutral for Politics, Neutral for Markets
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2014

The Reform Package (RP), announced by Prime Minister Erdogan on Monday failed short of the media campaign that led to it, as well as the aspirations of the intended recipients except one clientele: the devout Moslem females. Mr. Erdogan demonstrated once again that substantial human rights reform...

Weekly Tracker: Sep 28-Oct 4
TURKEY · Report · 28 Sep 2014

Executive Summary In an unexpected and breathtaking change of heart, President Erdogan converted from reluctant coalition partner in the war against ISIS to eager counter-jihadist. Just how thorough his conversion is, will be seen this week when the AKP government submits two motions (bills) to p...

MPC: No Surprises This Month
TURKEY · Report · 25 Sep 2014

This time, in line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged (see graph). This is not too surprising, because of a rather worrisome inflation outlook and the jittery external/currency environment. As for the content of the statement, the Bank’s take on inflation dynamics ...

Turkey’s ISIS challenge doubles overnight
TURKEY · Report · 23 Sep 2014

Obama’s decision to strike ISIS targets in Syria, in a series of attacks joined by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates brought temporary relief to financial markets and more importantly to the hard-pressed Kurdish militias fighting to defend the city of Kobani.Yet, there are too...

Weekly Tracker: September 21-27
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The nation sighed a collective breath of relief, as ISIS released the 49 hostages it had captured in the raid on the consular building of Mosul in June.Yet, the ending of the hostage crisis would give berth to Western allies to increase pressure on Ankara to play a bigger role i...

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