Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cyclical Gains, Structural Pains
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jun 2014

Today’s Q1 growth data surprised slightly on the upside, coming in at 4.3%, y/y versus expectations of around 4%, us included. The quarterly growth rate (seasonally- and working day-adjusted) was puzzlingly strong, at 1.7% (corresponding to an annualized rate of over 7%), but we take these quarte...

Weekly Tracker: June 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jun 2014

Executive Summary AKP’s bold attempt to reinvigorate the Peace Process with Kurds replaced the Presidential Elections as the top item on the Turkish agenda. While the effort is commendable and potentially lucrative in terms of Kurdish votes, it is open to sabotage by PKK and to mishandling. Feari...

AKP, Ocalan take the Peace Process up a notch
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

First allow me to express my apologies for delaying this update, promised in our latest Monthly Report. Events in Turkey progressed so rapidly that I felt like a rabbit facing the headlights of an approaching car all week. The resignation of the president of Turkey’s sole big-business lobby, TUSI...

Inflation Has Peaked, How Nice!
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2014

Monthly CPI inflation was 0.4% in May, broadly in line with the consensus (0.5%), with the 12-month rate hence rising further to 9.7%, from 9.4% in April. As the CBRT and markets have long been anticipating on the back of last May’s low base effect, this print probably marks the peak of the 12-mo...

Turkey’s Stable Disequilibrium
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryJune will witness the selection of presidential candidates by major parties. We bet on Erdogan for AKP, but the opposition is yet to find viable champions. We still assign 65% chances to an Erdogan victory, citing three major reasons: No cross-party votes in either round, the pos...

Weekly Tracker: May 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2014

Executive Summary It is not official but Erdogan’s speech in Cologne suggests he is serious about Presidency. The opposition is yet to find a match for him, but we still don’t concede victory to Erdogan. The death of yet another Alevite Turk at the hands of the police during week and the sudden e...

I Am An Excellent, Excellent Driver
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2014

Contrary to our – and most analysts’ -- expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the one-week repo rate by 50 bps today to 9.5%, while it kept the O/N lending and borrowing rates unchanged (see chart). This cut is significant because the one-week repo rate has regained its prevalence as th...

Weekly Tracker: May 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2014

Executive Summary There is yet not enough evidence in the Soma mine disaster that either the owner of Soma Holding or AKP’s preferential treatment of the mine was directly responsible. Yet, AKP’s defensive manner and the very poor PR management of the disaster turned the public wrath against the ...

Mid-week review in Turkish politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 May 2014

Turkish government declared three days of national mourning as the death toll in the Soma coal mine accident reached 205. I fear it may reach as high as 450. Was this a genuine “act of God”? Or the result of careless privatization and deregulation in the mining industry? While the debate is alrea...

Weekly Tracker: May 11-17
TURKEY · Report · 11 May 2014

Executive Summary Industrial production surprised on the upside in March, expanding 4.2%, y/y. This has brought the IP growth in Q1 to a solid 5.3% (unadjusted), up from Q4’s 3.8%, marking a stronger than envisaged entry into the year. What is the source of this resilience? To answer this questio...

Core Nears Double the Target Rate
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2014

CPI inflation was a higher than expected 1.3% in April (consensus: 0.9%), which took the 12-month rate a full percentage point higher, to 9.4%. Food was a big contributor, with monthly food inflation (including beverages) swinging from a negative 1.3% in April 2013 to an increase of 1.4% in April...

April Inflation Report Highlights
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2014

Here are a few highlights from today’s Inflation Report presentation by Governor Basci: *Yearend inflation estimate is now up by a full percentage point to 7.6% (midpoint of the usual 70% probability band). The revision is a bit on the high side, but the revision itself is not surprising (see our...

Weekly Tracker: April 27-May 3
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Another Gul-Erdogan summit passed, with the leaders failing to announce party’s candidate for the upcoming presidential race. We still bet on PM Erdogan’s candidacy, with certain caveats. Meanwhile, Erdogan stole the show during the week, when he issued a heart-felt apology to t...

MPC Leaves Rates Unchanged
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee did the right thing today -- and also the brave thing, given that political pressures on the Bank to undertake a sizeable rate cut have been intensifying -- by not moving any of the key interest rates, i.e. the O/N corridor (8%-12%) and the weekly repo (10%) rates (s...

Weekly Tracker: April 20-26
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Incumbent president Gul may have announced his retirement from active politics, but he may still have a role to play in AKP’s future. Erdogan intends to run for the Presidency and govern the country on a Presidential System if he wins.Upcoming changes to be introduced to the ele...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.