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Parliamentary Elections: Advantage, Nation Alliance
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2023

Do you believe in fate? Personally, I’m on the fence about her, because I feel my life has been more of a “random walk” then guided by a divine power. Yet, if such a force were to exist, I’d say it is carrying Kemal Kilicdaroglu (KK) and the Nation Alliance (NA) to power. With no major changes in...

A fateful day in politics
TURKEY · Report · 09 Apr 2023

This week’s political essays are rather brief, because the main event of the week, the negotiations over merging candidate lists were yet to be completed, as we finalized these lines (as of 5 pm, Istanbul time). While all three political alliances have submitted their preliminary lists, these can...

Base effects continue, so does stickiness
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.3% in March (vs. 2.7-2.8% consensus), with the 12-month rate thus easing further to 50.5%, from 55.2% in February, and a peak of 85.5% in October last year. Domestic producer prices rose very modestly by 0.4%, m/m, in the month, which led to a furth...

Waiting is just torture
TURKEY · Report · 02 Apr 2023

Each week brings new polls which show the Nation Alliance leader Kilicdaroglu firming his lead over incumbent Erdogan. A few experts even call him victor in the first round, which would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. However, can his former intra-party rival Muharrem Ince play the spoiler...

Macro thoughts: take two
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Mar 2023

We take stock of the political landscape, update our thoughts on the macroeconomic outlook for this year, and take a quick glance at the next. The pressures in the currency market continue unabated, as attested to by myriad interventions and controls, but the likelihood of a pre-election ‘curr...

Notes from Bilge Yilmaz breakfast
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023 · 1 response

On Tuesday, I and 6 of my economist/columnist colleagues were invited to breakfast by Bilge Yılmaz, head of economic policy at IYIP. I wanted to share my impressions from the “on-the-record” part of the conversation. The “off-the-record” part was largely anecdotes and conversation about politicia...

MPC stays on hold
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023

We are happy to report that there is almost nothing to report from today’s CBRT/MPC meeting. The Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 8.5%, in line with our expectation, versus a more divided set of views in the analyst community (link here). The Bank kept the sentence on the policy outloo...

Big blows to Erdogan, a “thin” one for Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023 · 4 responses

BAD PUN WARNING: “İnce” is the Turkish word for “thin”, which also happens to be the surname of former CHP member and presidential candidate Mr. Muharrem Ince. Get it? Turkey’s competing political alliances; the governing Republican and main opposition Nation; are facing hurdles in their sweat-so...

Dangerous liaisons, dripping reserves
TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2023

With Kilicdaroglu widening his lead in the polls, and his Nation Alliance having started inching up in the parliamentary race, Turkey’s timid pro-opposition pundits are now openly voicing the threat of Erdogan stealing the election. The first essay by the politics author addresses this question, ...

Kilicdaroglu has wind in wings
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Your beloved Politics Author a.k.a. Atilla Yesilada is still convalescing from gastric surgery, which is the reason for his absence from our Weekly Report. Since my work hours are still quite restricted, I shall instead analyze the developments after Kilicdaroglu’s nomination briefly, inviting ou...

A dull and short weekly, for a change...
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2023

Our politics author, who is in convalescence but doing well, plans an update on the political scene in the next 24-48 hours. In his absence -- and with elections now almost certainly set for May 14, we report the latest state of affairs in the polls, no matter how rudimentary the polls might be. ...

Deux Ex Machina for Nation Alliance, Final Battle for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023 · 6 responses

It has been a very eventful day for Turkey, the nomination of Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the joint presidential candidate of the reunited Nation Alliance (NA) being only one. Earlier in the day, Saudi Arabia deposited $5 bn with CBRT, somewhat reducing the likelihood of a currency shock before the ele...

Turkey’s other quake
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2023

Coming on the heels of a devastating earthquake, IYIP’s abrupt departure from the main opposition grouping Nation Alliance, added a new layer of uncertainty to the outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections. IYIP leader Aksener’s motivations for the 11th hour withdrawal remain obscure, b...

Better than expected, but still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2023

Consumer prices rose by 3.15%, m/m, in February, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%. Our forecast, at around 4.5%, was even higher, which was largely based on our assumption of quicker price increases in service categories. As a result, 12-month CPI rate eased further to 55.2%, y/y, t...

LAST MINUTE: Aksener pulls out of the Nation Alliance
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023 · 2 responses

I’m not in the business of sharing breaking news with our audience, but this is so important that I decided to do so before I can gather my head and come up with a conclusion about election scenarios. After a six-hour meeting on Thursday it looked like the six leaders of the Nation Alliance had a...

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