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Weekly Tracker: November 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2013

Executive Summary March local election campaign started with headscarves in parliament and Mr. Sarigul, the popular mayor of Istanbul’s Sisli district, joining the CHP ranks. There is no more room for reforms until after the elections. We begin by outlining our preliminary predictions for the loc...

Inflation Report: Nothing Surprising
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2013

As we were tied up at the economic congress in Izmir (apologies!), we couldn't hear Governor Basci speak today, but there is little surprising in what we read and heard so far.  Inflation yearend estimate (midpoint) is now 6.8%, which we knew from the MTP already, while Governor Basci has apparen...

MPC: Cut and Paste, Wait and See
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2013

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left all rates (weekly policy as well as the O/N rates; see graph) and all other policy levers unchanged today. The wording of the statement was literally a carbon copy of the September statement (click here for this and here for the previous statements....

MPC: No Action, No Change in Wording...
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2013

Today’s MPC decision made no changes in rates or other instruments. The wording was almost exactly the same as well. There should be no market impact.  A more detailed brief will be available later today.

PKK leader Ocalan Criticizes Peace Process, but Fails to Order New Action
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Oct 2013

Despite the Id of Sacrifice, Turkish politics is in full swing.  A team of pro-Kurdish BDP representatives visited incarcerated leader Ocalan on 15 October who sounded extremely disappointed with the Reform Package and the progress of the Peace Process. Ocalan repeated his well-known demands.   M...

In Janet, We Trust
TURKEY · Forecast · 13 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryAfter a difficult and volatile summer, Turkish assets were among the best beneficiaries of the tapering delays and the nomination of Janet Yellen to head the Federal Reserve, but viewing this respite as permanent, would be a mistake, in our view. With almost all the low-hanging f...

MTP 2014-16: Cozy But Unlikely
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2013

The authorities’ Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2014-16 was announced yesterday. The revisions made to the three main macro aggregates and our quick thoughts on them are summarized below. Table 1 below provides the key macro indicators for the current and previous MTPs, while annex tables (1-4) pr...

MTP 2014-16: And Then, a Miracle Happens…
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The Medium-Term Program for 2014-16 was announced today, somewhat earlier than expected.  The government revised down the growth rate for this year to 3.6% and for the next year to 4%, from previous MTP’s 4% and 5%, respectively.  Inflation is forecasted to end the year at 6.8%, vs. the 5.3% in t...

Democratization Package update: Don’t Expect More, but Less
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2013

I’m asked by a lot of readers whether the recently unveiled Reform or Democratization Package heralds the return of the “pragmatic, reformist” AKP.  The answer is unfortunately NO.  In fact instead of adding to the gains by supplemental initiatives addressing the groups neglected in the first pac...

Weekly Tracker: October 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2013

Executive Summary On the international front, there is only a remote hope of progress in the Iran vs. P5+1 negotiations, or in Syria, while Iraq is in tenterhooks. As regional conflicts spread out, contagion to Turkey through terror and ethnic strife may become more apparent. Kurds rejected the R...

Bad Print, Lira Pass-Through Continues
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2013

At 0.8%, CPI-inflation came in at somewhat higher than consensus, but broadly in line with our forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless edged down to 7.9%, from 8.2% in August, thanks to last year’s elevated base. Notably, at 0.7%, core inflation -- measured by the I-index that excludes food, tob...

Heads-Up: ISIS Threatens Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2013

The Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or Syria (ISIS) issued a web-based threat to Ankara to re-open two border crossings, Bab-el Hava and Bab-ul Salam, by 8 October or face nationwide suicide bomb attacks.  The threat was issued on a website believed to have in the past communicated such messages...

The Reform Package: Appears Decidedly Half-Empty
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2013

I defer a Market Brief on Erdogan’s Reform Package till Tuesday, because of what I stated in the Weekly Tracker:“The content of the reform initiative is not the most relevant issue about its impact on Turkey’s fractious political landscape. It is the reception by Kurds and Alevites that count her...

Weekly Tracker: Sep 29-Oct 5
TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryMonday is a landmark day in Turkish politics, when PM Erdogan unveils the Reform Package. Contents will not satisfy either the Kurdish or the Alevite leadership, but the masses may be more sympathetic. A strange brawl during a soccer derby appears related to Gezi Parki, proving o...

Koc Tender Officially Cancelled
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2013

In the war between AKP and its alleged secularist conspiratorial nemesis Koc Group, the first blood was officially drawn today. In a Defense Procurement Committee meeting chaired by PM Erdogan, the US$1.5 billion MilGem tender (for the construction of four Navy vessels) have been canceled on acco...

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