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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Weekly Tracker: September 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2013

Executive Summary If the Turkish press is to be believed, the Reform Package to be unveiled on the final day of September will contain concrete human rights reforms. The Kurdish actors already denounced the reform efforts. They now want PKK leader Ocalan to be bestowed with the status of official...

The MPC Does the Expected, but Chooses Not to Tinker with F/X Ratios
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Sep 2013

As expected, the MPC kept all rates unchanged today, while its assessment of the economy (e.g., mild recovery in domestic demand, a contained CAD thanks to current policy framework) was also broadly unchanged.  The Bank chose not to alter the F/X ratios (that would help to transfer some of its gr...

An uneventful MPC, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2013

As expected, the MPC kept all rates unchanged today (see graph), while its assessment of the economy (e.g., mild recovery in domestic demand, a contained CAD thanks to current policy framework) was also broadly unchanged. The Bank chose not to alter the F/X ratios (that would help to transfer som...

Preliminary Analysis: Turkish Air force Shoots Down Syrian Chopper
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Sep 2013

According to deputy PM Bulent Arinc, later confirmed by the HQ of Chiefs of Military Staff, a Syrian military chopper was shot down ”inside the Turkish airspace” by two Turkish  Air Force F16s. The incident is new, with no announcement from Damascus as I write these lines; hence this is only a pr...

Weekly Tracker: September 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2013

Executive Summary An American military intervention in Syria is off the table, which leaves Ankara out in the cold. The milestone event in the Kurdish Peace Process is the announcement of the Reform Package during the coming week. Will PM Erdogan bite the electoral bullet and give Kurds what they...

Government, stocks drive Q2 growth
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2013

Today’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 4.4%, y/y, which was higher than the consensus forecast of some 3.5%, and our even softer estimate of 2.5%. Growth was driven by private consumption, government spending (notably investment) and inventory build-up, all of which turned out fairly stronger than our ...

A Note on PKK and Gezi Parki Demonstrations
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

PKK suspended the withdrawal of its guerilla force from Turkey, accusing AKP of planning a war on Kurds. Essentially, the Peace Process is dead.  AKP’s much-advertised reform package is delayed and is unlikely to satisfy even the minimum of Kurdish demands. I don't expect a return to insurgency u...

On Q2 GDP Growth
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

Today’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 4.4%, y/y, which was higher than the consensus forecast of some 3.5%, and our even softer estimate of 2.5%. Growth was driven by private consumption, government spending (notably investment) and inventory build-up, all of which turned out fairly stronger than our ...

Weekly Tracker: September 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Obama is not guaranteed to receive the go-ahead for Syria from the House.An airstrike on Assad’s assets will degrade his capacity to execute the war and give the rebels the upper hand. Yet, the threat of Shia Axis taking revenge on Turkey can’t be dismissed. Ankara is on the ver...

Headline Down, Core UP
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2013

Today’s consumer price data came in exactly in line with the market consensus, shrinking modestly by 0.1%, on the back of a retreat in food prices, also as expected.The 12-month rate hence dropped to 8.2% from 8.9% a month earlier. The producer price inflation also eased to 6.4% from 6.6% in July...

Is Turkey’s Luck Turning?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryOur base-case fall/winter scenario on the political side entails very daunting challenges for the AKP administration, which may reverse its more than a decade old streak of good luck. Assuming President Obama does strike Syrian targets but fails to dislodge Assad, the Shia Axis c...

Update on CBT and Syria
TURKEY · Report · 27 Aug 2013

Governor Basci's TV Appearance Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it. The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor...

Intervention in Syria, headaches in Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2013

After the press conference by Secretary of State Kerry, where he accused Assad of using chemical weapons without a shred of doubt, the world began to take the threat of a NATO-led intervention in Syria more seriously. Pentagon let it be known, that if such a campaign were to happen, its aims will...

Basci Disappoints those Expecting a Hawkish Message
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2013

Today's TV appearance by CBT Governor Basci, which was announced last night, was targeted at improving the predictability of monetary policy, as Governor himself stated it.  The market was mainly focused on the future course of monetary policy, expecting the Governor to send hawkish messages to c...

Turkey’s new Middle East policy: Precious isolation
TURKEY · Report · 21 Aug 2013

It is astounding how rapidly Erdogan alienates Turkey’s allies in the Middle East. The last two victims of his boundless rage are Egypt and Israel—for a third time. Once a contender for the role of king-maker in the region, aspiring to export its economic and political model, Ankara is increasing...

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