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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Timid Defense of the Lira Continues
TURKEY · Report · 20 Aug 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps today, to 7.75%, but left the other two rates -- the weekly policy and O/N borrowing rates -- unchanged (Graph 1). The Committee kept the lending rate for primary dealers at 6.75%, which means that the “normal day rate” h...

Threats to Corporate Earnings
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2013

There is a thickening cloud of uncertainly hovering over the earnings forecasts of major BIST-listed companies. Government’s relentless efforts to find the co-conspirators of the Gezi Parki in the business community and the swelling public sentiment against banks’ habit of excessive transaction f...

And the pass-through starts..
TURKEY · Report · 05 Aug 2013

Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in July, taking the 12-month rate to just below 9% (8.9%), from 8.3% in June. The increase is in line with expectations, and near the 9% level Governor Basci had hinted during the presentation of the Inflation Report last week. Producer prices also continued to rise t...

Times They Are a-Changin’
TURKEY · Report · 02 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryThe Gezi Park incident may represent the turning point for the AKP administration. It is facing the severest trials of its 11-year reign, but so far, it has failed to effectively deal with them. After the loss of Egypt, Ankara is also fumbling the ball in Syria. An Arab-Kurdish w...

Inflation Report Highlights
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2013

The big change today was the upward revision of the end-2013 inflation forecast to 6.2% (from 5.3% previously), mainly on account of higher oil prices and weaker lira assumptions. The revision is slightly more than our expectation, but still lower than where we think inflation will end up by the ...

Weekly Tracker: July 28-Aug 3
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The government efforts to isolate the conspirators behind the Gezi Parki demonstrations have turned into heavy-handed prosecution against organizers and a purge in the media. The witch-hunt appears to have spread to the corporate sector as well, where a draconian tax probe was l...

Weekly Tracker: July 28-Aug 3
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The government efforts to isolate the conspirators behind the Gezi Parki demonstrations have turned into heavy-handed prosecution against organizers and a purge in the media. The witch-hunt appears to have spread to the corporate sector as well, where a draconian tax probe was l...

Trilemma Optimization Continues
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N lending rate by 75 bps to 7.25%, and left the other two rates -- the weekly policy and O/N borrowing rates -- unchanged, thereby widening the O/N corridor (see graph).The Bank also kept the ROCs and RRRs unchanged. The move is broadly in line with the ...

Weekly Tracker: July 21-27
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jul 2013

Executive Summary We opted for a different format in this Tracker, because of a short break our political analyst-cum-cosmic strategist had to take. After briefly highlighting a few important political developments of the past week, we provide our economic commentary as usual. Syrian border troub...

A Politics and Econ Update
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Recent actions by PM Erdogan and AKP give the impression that the party has parted ways with reality. A chief proponent of the ‘High Rates Lobby’ has been appointed Chief Advisor to PM, while the authorities have begun to investigate financial transactions to find corroborators ...

Weekly Tracker: July 7-13
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The Egyptian coup could complicate things further for AKP, as party leaders openly side with Moslem Brotherhood.The counter-revolution is also making AKP more paranoid about Gezi Park. Large crowds descended on Taksim Square on Saturday, who met with startling police brutality. ...

Feeling Like Dorothy Again
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryHeightened domestic political risks, combined with signals from the Fed that QE ‘tapering’ may soon begin, changed the macro environment quite significantly since our last Quarterly (of April 10, 2013). On the political front, we now anticipate the risk premiums increasing steadi...

Ankara’s regional policy in tatters
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jul 2013

AKP was quick to condemn the Egypt coup, and even seem to encourage the supporters of Moslem Brotherhood to resist. This may be understandable from a moral perspective, but is very likely to result in the loss of Egypt’s alliance to AKP. The coup is major blow to the Sunni Axis. According to stat...

Food, transportation drive inflation higher
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2013

Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 0.8% in June, taking the 12-month rate to 8.3%, from 6.5% in May. Producer prices also rose markedly to 5.2%, y/y, from 2.2% in May.Core inflation (I-index) remained high, but unchanged at 5.6%, y/y (Table 1; Graph 1). The sharp increase in CPI ...

Cosmo talks about the Jewish conspiracy
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2013

It is amazing how eager is the AKP government is to shoot itself in the foot. State Minister Besir Atalay suggested yesterday that the Gezi Parki is the work of Jewish Diaspora. As efforts to uncover the international conspiracy behind Gezi Parki accelerate, reports indicate that BRSA, Ergenekon ...

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