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The only clarity is there is no clarity
TURKEY · Report · 26 Feb 2023 · 1 response

The earthquake triggered a whole new conversation in politics and created a new political landscape, on which the politics author takes up two issues. The first is the timing of the elections. A majority of news articles now suggest that President Erdogan doesn’t intend to delay elections beyond ...

MPC responds to the EQ, says it's one-off
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2023

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 8.5%, exercising somewhat of a restraint, compared with expectations of 100, in some cases 200 bps reduction -- and our admittedly somewhat loosely formulated, “we would not be surprised if the Bank reduced the policy rate by another 100 bps or so”. ...

A quick follow-up on reserves
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2023 · 5 responses

My colleague Atilla has just sent out a piece laying out his thoughts on the currency market and the stock exchange, with some references to our joint work/estimates. I thought, for the sake of completeness and consistency, I should follow up very briefly regarding the reserve numbers and a coupl...

Commentary on the exchange rate and Borsa Istanbul
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2023

I usually express my market views under the alias of Cosmic Strategist in our Weekly Reports. These are not investment advice in any shape or form, but the product of my desire to distill our work on politics and economy to the price discovery efforts for markets. Lately, Cosmic Strategist has be...

Tough Times
TURKEY · Report · 19 Feb 2023

The politics author updates his election scenarios with the limited benefit of information or data from the quake zone. His single essay in the Weekly has been titled “impressions”, because there are huge gaps in his understanding of what is transpiring in the quake zone and how it might affect v...

Webinar Replay: Earthquake Aftermath - A new roadmap for Turkey
TURKEY · Report · 17 Feb 2023

Following the tragic loss of life and destruction brought by the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that shook Turkey and neighboring Syria on February 6th, get insight into the impact of the earthquake and Turkey's path for recovery. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Mur...

The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 12 Feb 2023 · 1 response

The politics section starts with an assessment of human and material damage of the earthquake, which could reach staggering dimensions. It is sad that the state started the initial effort to survey the damage only Saturday. On Sunday, a renowned seismologist made the dire prediction that up to 70...

This map will help you comprehend the geographical scope of the disaster and why little can be done
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Source:  FT, link here

Earthquake: This disaster will reformat Turkey, full stop
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

It is my job to make sense of this calamity, to write a few words that go beyond shock and pain, that describe the losses which mount with each passing moment, to make predictions, even if very tentative. All I can say at this juncture is that this is truly a Black Swan event, which will complete...

Engine overheating
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2023

The Joint Policies Protocol (JPP) of the opposition Nation Alliance, a coalition program of sorts, earned grudging respect from skeptics, but little public enthusiasm. It needs sexy slogans and a champion to sell it in Anatolia. That person would be the joint presidential candidate of the Nation ...

Ouch!
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Consumer prices rose by 6.65%, m/m, in January, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of around 3.8%, and even more so than ours. Our forecast error, which, admittedly, is the largest as far back as we remember it, stems mainly from a substantial underestimation of food inflation (part...

Preamble – Summary of the Joint Policies Protocol by the Nation Alliance—Part I
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2023

Sorry, I'll forget my head next. I've also translated salient parts of the summary section of the Joint Policies  Protocol at this link

NA government protocol: This is as good as it gets
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2023

Turkey’s six-party opposition alliance, recently renamed as the Nation Alliance, issued its election manifesto and coalition protocol with great fanfare on 30 January, thus making asymptotic progress to the finish line, which would be crossed if it manages to unite around a single presidential ca...

ToS racing to the finish line
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

The main opposition alliance, Table of Six, now renamed the Nation Alliance (once again) made further progress towards becoming a true coalition in the leaders’ 26 January summit, while batting away some of the criticisms hurled at it. Party sources claim a joint presidential candidate will be...

Election milestones, ToS scenarios
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan has more-or-less declared May 14 as the new date for elections and is expected to issue the executive decree abolishing the legislature during the second week of March. The first essay covers other important milestones on the way to elections, such the final dates to register as...

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