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We move on. The IMF approves $1 billion wire. Next stop – agro-land market
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Apr 2017 · 1 response

The IMF approved fourth wire ($1 billion) for Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. This decision was long-awaited and was hotly welcomed by Ukrainian authorities especially after the Executive Board canceled its meeting two weeks ago. Luckily it was just a delay and the Fund wa...

Industry loses 1.7% on trade blockade in February
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2017

In February industrial output fell 4.6% y/y compared to +5.6% y/y in the prior month. Predictably, mining (-11.5% y/y) and metals (-4.3% y/y) led the decline. However, the major part of the drop was due to high comparative base: industry decline was only 1.7% y/y when adjusted for calendar days. ...

Domestic Investment Booms amid Scarce FDI: Agriculture and State Investment Drives Growth
UKRAINE · Report · 22 Mar 2017

In 2016, investment in fixed assets began to recover quickly, growing +18.0% y/y through the year, with 2H 2016 especially strong. More specifically, investment in fixed assets increased 27.2% y/y in 3Q 2016 and 20.8% y/y in 4Q 2016. All this happened amid a meager FDI inflow of $3.3 billion in 2...

The IMF shifts Executive Board meeting on Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Mar 2017

Interesting turn of events. Just one day before the IMF Executive Board meeting on Ukraine, scheduled previously on March 20th, the meeting was cancelled. Finance Ministry immediately published explanation claiming that the IMF requested estimates of macro-economic consequences of the official ba...

Official Ban on Cargo Traffic with Donbas
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Mar 2017

Forceful dismantling of one of the block-posts, which prevented coal supplies from Donbas, triggered quite dangerous developments. Few parliamentary parties Samopomitch (led by Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyy) and UKROP (funded by oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy) made very harsh public statements and star...

Forceful Unblocking of Trading Routs to Donbas Started
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Mar 2017

The Secret Service of Ukraine and Special Forces of Police started forceful unblocking of trading routs to Donbas today, leaders of the blockade reported in social nets. At least one block-post had been dismantled. Secret Service officially confirmed arrest of 43 alleged ‘saboteurs’. Leaders of t...

Land reform on agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Mar 2017

The IMF Executive Board scheduled the third review for Ukraine for March 20th. No one expects surprises. A $1 billion loan is down the road. Now it’s a big question what should be done for next wire. In my opinion, the land market will be the main issue for fifth review. We see the ice was finall...

The IMF Executive Board meeting on Ukraine set for March 20
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2017

The IMF Executive Board scheduled third review for Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility program for March 20th reported Vlad Rashkovan Deputy Director of Ukraine in the IMF. Previously, on March 4th the IMF reported that staff-level agreement with Ukraine on third review was reached and appro...

Economy Rebounds, As Political Tension Mounts
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Mar 2017

January economic numbers were surprisingly positive. Industrial output expanded +5.6% y/y, up from +4.6% y/y in December. The CAD narrowed to a modest $26 million, driven by a 41% y/y surge in exports. The currency stabilized at UAH 27/dollar. In short, the economy is showing strong signs of a re...

Political tension escalates on authorities’ attempts to release Chief tax collector
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2017

The case with Nasirov has all chances to become a trigger for new mass protests. Ukrainians are tired with painful reforms and are extremely irritated with pervasive corruption. Previously, the authorities addressed people to tolerate painful measures for the sake of better future. Demanding peop...

National anti-corruption bureau arrests Head of State fiscal service
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2017

Media reports that National anti-corruption bureau arrested Head of State fiscal service, Roman Nasirov. Poor details are available but it looks like the arrest is formally related to investigation of operations of former MP Oleksandr Onishchenko who escaped Ukraine in summer 2016. What are the r...

Political reshuffle knocks at the door
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

Over the recent weeks we observe intensified activity of political players. Many rumors are circulating. We do not have rigid facts about what is going on but from pieces of information we’ve compiled our version of events. So, trade blockade of eastern Donbas effectively destroyed fragile balanc...

Trade Blockade Aggravates Political Situation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Feb 2017

Surprisingly but offensive near Avdiyivka did not remove trade blockade of occupied territories from agenda. As soon as fighting eased trade blockade again took the headlines. What’s more, volunteering squads expanded their control on many other routes. Trade blockade still remains fragmentary; h...

GDP surges 4.5-4.8% in 4Q16, officials say
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

GDP surged 4.5-4.8% y/y in 4Q16 the Head of State Statistics Service Igor Verner reported at the Cabinet meeting yesterday. This means that in 2016 GDP increased 2.2% y/y which is much above our estimates (we projected 1.4% y/y). If the estimate proves to be correct it’s definitely good news. At ...

Escalation in Donbas - But Notable Reforms and Economic Growth
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Feb 2017

The situation in eastern Ukraine deteriorated in late January, with volunteer squads beginning a trade blockade against the occupied territories. This move was supported by ordinary Ukrainians, who are increasingly unhappy over rising utility rates. Ukraine still imports coal from the occupied te...

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