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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Finance Minister speaks: land reform, potential Eurobonds and accusations against the chief tax collector
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2017

Yesterday, on Feb. 6th, Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk gathered journalists for a meeting and shared with public few interesting points. Firstly, he stated that the law on agri-land circulation will be submitted to the parliament by the end of May. It was agreed with the IMF. Previously, the...

New offensive in Donbas: 7 soldiers killed, Avdiyivka metallurgical coke plant stops operating
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jan 2017 · 9 responses

Over the last few days Russians and separatists unfolded heavy attacks on Ukrainian positions. Officials reported 7 Ukrainian soldiers killed. Yesterday Avdiyivka metallurgical coke plant (belongs to Rinat Akhmetov) was seriously damaged with shelling and was finally stopped. The total town of Av...

Volunteering squads block trading with occupied territories
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2017

Last week volunteering squads started trade blockade of occupied territories of Eastern Donbas. Unlike previous efforts this time it looks like the story might be much more serious. The point is that new effort to stop trading with Eastern Donbas was undertook amid growing irritation about huge h...

The Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 14%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2017

Today the Board of Directors of the Central bank decided to keep policy rate unchanged at 14%. Inflation threats related to doubled minimum wages as well as recent volatility at the FX market stand behind such a decision. Given that prices indeed will speed up over the upcoming weeks (we already ...

Lagarde is positive about next wire for Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2017

Today the IMF Managing Director Cristine Lagarde met President Petro Poroshenko in Davos, reported Interfax-Ukraine news agency. Ms. Lagarde said to journalists that Ukraine and the IMF are finalizing the remaining technical details to provide the next tranche. Our sources in the Cabinet and the ...

Draft of the IMF Memorandum
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jan 2017

Yesterday media published a draft of the IMF memorandum (see attached). Someone from the Cabinet shared with journalists a version of the document. It’s not a final one and very likely the official document will be pretty much different. But still it’s of interest what is currently discussed with...

Tax police ‘accidental’ reform
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jan 2017

In December 2016 parliament accidentally deprived powers of the tax police. A package of tax changes was under consideration, and by some mistake the tax police was cancelled. We may never know who was the author of this "mistake" but that’s what happened. The tax police was one of the key instru...

“Painful Compromises” of Local Oligarchs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

On Dec. 29th 2016, Viktor Pinchuk, local oligarch and son-in-law of ex-President Leonid Kuchma made a real coming out on pages of WSJ with an article ‘Ukraine Must Make Painful Compromises for Peace With Russia’. The name of the article tells for itself. Mr. Pinchuk suggests accepting agenda that...

Recovering from Privatbank’s Nationalization
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Dec 2016

The recent nationalization of Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest private bank, has significantly changed the national economic climate. Everything proceeded as smoothly as could be expected, despite fears of potential panic at the FX market. The Ukrainian economy will never be quite the same. Firs...

Consequences of Privatbank Nationalization: Provisional Thoughts
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2016

The main risk of Privatbank nationalization was in potential adverse reaction of the bank owners. The Central bank officials have been thoroughly working with so called “red button scenario” which presumed potential damage to the datasets of clients. It was the main concern of state officials in ...

Cabinet Decides on Privatbank Nationalization
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Dec 2016

Today the Cabinet approved nationalization of the largest private bank (20 million clients) Privatbank, according to the Cabinet web-site. The bank was previously owned by oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy. Press-briefing on this issue is scheduled for Monday morning. Some rumors tell that ex-Finance Min...

Double Trouble: A Trump Surprise, and IMF Lending on Hold
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Dec 2016

The Ukrainian authorities, like the rest of the world, were caught by surprise by the election of Donald Trump. The Poroshenko administration had never approached the Trump camp before the election, believing that Hillary Clinton would be the victor. Now Poroshenko needs to not only build relati...

Wealth Shock
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Nov 2016

New electronic statements, or “e-declarations,” revealing the impressive wealth amassed by Ukraine’s politicians and civil servants dominated the headlines in October. Some observers were shocked to see the millions of dollars of previously opaque wealth reported publicly for the first time. The ...

Political Cash Coming Out
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Over the last week Ukrainians enjoy a real time show about top politicians and civil servants reporting in e-declarations their assets, incomes and piles of cash. Recall there was a huge fight to introduce e-declarations mechanisms. It was for many times attacked by local establishment and only t...

Growth Smooth, and Picking Up
UKRAINE · Forecast · 04 Oct 2016

The Ukrainian economy has returned to a smooth growth trajectory. Absent any unexpected news, or shifts in macroeconomic trends, it’s hard to be displeased. External demand remains weak, and will hardly become a near-term driver of growth, though internal consumption has recovered steadily, which...